This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to catch the Awesemo NBA Daily Fantasy Strategy Show every morning on our Awesemo YouTube Channel to find the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel!
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | April 13
Point Guard
Trae Young ($9,100 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel) is questionable for tonight’s game against the Raptors. Toronto is 11th in pace and 15th in defensive rating over the last month and they will once again be short-handed tonight without both of their starting guards. The Hawks will also be short-handed as John Collins, Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter are out and Danilo Gallinari is doubtful. The absence of Collins is especially important as it opens up more usage for Young. In four games without Collins and with Clint Capela this season, Young has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute with a 39.3 percent usage rate and 47.2 percent assist rate. In 40 games with both players active, Young has averaged a similar 1.35 DraftKings points per minute but his usage rate is only 32.7 percent and his assist rate is 45.1 percent. At the very least, he has a higher ceiling with Collins sidelined.
Mike Conley ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) rested yesterday on the front end of a back-to-back but he is expected back tonight against Oklahoma City. Utah could still be without Jordan Clarkson, which would open up more production for Conley. Conley has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute and 29.5 minutes per game in 40 games played with Donovan Mitchell this season and he faces a weak Oklahoma City team tonight at a reasonable price point.
Malcolm Brogdon ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) played 38.7 minutes in regulation against the Grizzlies on Sunday, so it is safe to see he isn’t on any sort of minutes restriction a few games after returning from injury. The matchup against the Clippers is typically a difficult one, but Los Angeles will be without Patrick Beverley and Kawhi Leonard which should weaken their defense somewhat. Brogdon has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.7 percent usage rate and 22.3 percent assist rate in 11 games played with Caris LeVert and Domantas Sabonis this season.
Kemba Walker ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) takes on the Portland Trail Blazers, who are 27th in defensive rating over the last month. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Boston, but Walker is inexpensive enough that he offers plenty of upside. Walker has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute and 32.2 minutes per game in 26 games played with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum this season. He has a 24.9 percent usage rate and 23.5 percent assist rate in those games and he is likely to produce at a more efficient rate tonight against the Blazers.
Dennis Schroder ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute and 32.8 minutes per game in 13 games played without Anthony Davis and LeBron James this season. In competitive games, Schroder is playing 34-plus minutes, and that was the case last night as he logged 36.7 minutes against the Knicks. His usage rate is likely to take a hit now that Andre Drummond is in the Lakers’ starting lineup, but he is inexpensive enough that isn’t a huge concern given his substantial playing time. It is worth noting that the Hornets are playing at a much slower pace without LaMelo Ball, so this matchup isn’t as favorable as it would have been a few weeks ago.
Malachi Flynn ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) will most likely come off the bench tonight but he is also likely to play 30-plus minutes with Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet sidelined. Flynn has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute and 34.1 minutes per game in three games without VanVleet or Lowry and with Pascal Siakam active. It is important to note that he has averaged 2.7 steals and 1.3 blocks per game in those games, so the 1.03 DraftKings points per minute probably isn’t sustainable. Flynn has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute overall this season, and his true rate in games without Lowry and VanVleet will probably land somewhere in the middle. He is expensive enough that there is some downside now, but he is likely to play enough minutes that he is still a strong point-per-dollar option.
Brad Wanamaker ($3,800 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) has been a consistent part of the rotation since joining the Hornets and there are a lot of minutes available tonight with Terry Rozier and P.J. Washington expected to join Ball and Gordon Hayward on the sidelines. Wanamaker played 27.6 minutes against the Hawks on Sunday, including closing both halves, and he could get similar run tonight. He has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute in seven games with the Hornets this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young, Malcolm Brogdon, Dennis Schroder, Kemba Walker, Malachi Flynn, Brad Wanamaker
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young, Kemba Walker, Malachi Flynn
Latest NBA DFS Content
- NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Nikola Jokic Is The Man! (April 25)
- FanDuel Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | Evan Mobley (April 25)
- NBA DFS Late Swap Advice: How to Use Our New Tool to Improve Your Process and Profit
- DraftKings Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | Joel Embiid (April 25)
- NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Jayson Tatum and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (April 24)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell ($9,400 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) isn’t in nearly as good a spot tonight as he was last night, but he’s still a strong option. Conley is expected to play tonight, but there is no word yet on Clarkson. Mitchell has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.8 percent usage rate and 21.4 percent assist rate with Conley on the floor and Clarkson on the bench this season. He has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.4 percent usage rate and 32.5 percent assist rate without either player on the floor this season. If Clarkson sits, expect about half of his minutes to be with Conley and half to be without Conley, giving us an approximate expectation of a 34.1 percent usage rate, 27 percent assist rate and 1.31 DraftKings points per minute.
Paul George ($8,700 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) is one of the primary beneficiaries of Leonard’s absence tonight against the Pacers. George has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.6 percent usage rate and 25.2 percent assist rate in 16 games without Leonard dating back to the start of last season. For comparison, he has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.3 percent usage rate and 22.6 percent assist rate in 73 games alongside Leonard over that time. It is worth noting that, in five games without Leonard this season, George has averaged only 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. He has a 36.8 percent usage rate and 28.5 percent assist rate, however, so the per-minute production should increase as the sample gets larger.
C.J. McCollum ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) looks more like a secondary option than a primary option at his price point tonight against the Celtics, but he does come with a high ceiling as he has played very well this season. In 27 games played alongside Damian Lillard, McCollum has a 27.8 percent usage rate and 24.1 percent assist rate and has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute.
Devonte’ Graham ($6,300 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Lakers, who have the third best defensive rating in the NBA over the last month despite injuries to Davis and James. The Hornets will be without Malik Monk, Ball, Hayward and Washington tonight. Rozier is doubtful as well. This should open up plenty of opportunities for Graham, though it remains to be seen if he is able to take advantage. In 132 minutes without Hayward, Ball or Rozier on the floor this season, Graham has a 24 percent usage rate and 34.3 percent assist rate and has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute.
Gary Trent Jr. ($6,000 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) is at a price point that isn’t particularly comforting, but that does make some sense given the absence of Lowry and VanVleet. Trent has played 173 minutes without Lowry or VanVleet on the floor since joining the Raptors and has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.7 percent usage rate. He has been scoring dependent, however, with assist and rebounding rates below 10 percent, so he is a risky option. It is also important to keep in mind that Siakam wasn’t on the floor for all of those minutes either. In 111 minutes alongside Siakam without Lowry or VanVleet, Trent’s usage rate falls to 20.7 percent and he has averaged only 0.67 DraftKings points per minute. Trent’s playing time and increased opportunities without Lowry and VanVleet give him a relatively high ceiling for his salary, but there are other options that project better point-per-dollar.
Luke Kennard ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) is likely to start in place of Leonard tonight, which makes him a reasonable value option. Kennard has started three games without Leonard and with George active this season, averaging 27.1 minutes per game and 0.61 DraftKings points per minute. He has played 341 minutes without Leonard or Lou Williams on the floor this season and has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute. In 113 minutes with George on the floor, however, Kennard has averaged only 0.59 DraftKings points per minute. His minutes were mostly staggered with George in his last game, but he also played only about 24 minutes as he wasn’t in the closing lineup.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Paul George, Devonte’ Graham
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Paul George, Devonte’ Graham
Small Forward
Jaylen Brown ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) has a good matchup against a weak Portland defense and is reasonably priced at a weak small forward position. Brown has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute and 34.6 minutes per game in 26 games played alongside Walker and Tatum this season. He has a 27.5 percent usage rate in those games, giving him one of the highest ceilings at the position.
Kyle Kuzma ($6,800 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) played 29.6 minutes against the Knicks last night, but he has averaged 34.5 minutes per game in 11 games played without James or Davis so there is upside for more playing time tonight. Drummond is questionable tonight, and if he sits, it should benefit Kuzma as there will be more rebound chances available. In the games that Kuzma has played without James and Davis, he has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute. In two games with Drummond active, he has a 10.2 percent rebounding rate and in nine games without Drummond he has a 12.7 percent rebounding rate.
Miles Bridges ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) has averaged 36.3 minutes per game in four games without Ball and Hayward this season. With Washington also out tonight, Bridges’ playing time should be even more secure. He has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in the four games without Ball and Hayward and he has also averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in 120 minutes without Ball, Hayward, Washington or Rozier on the floor this season.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) had a big game last night against the Wizards. The matchup tonight isn’t quite as favorable against Oklahoma City, but there is still an opportunity for increased usage if Clarkson is out. Even if Clarkson plays, Bogdanovic is inexpensive enough that he can pay off his salary nicely in a game where Utah has a 120 point implied total. Bogdanovic has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute and 30.1 minutes per game in 40 games with Mitchell and Conley active this season.
DeAndre’ Bembry ($3,900 DraftKings/$5,300 SG FanDuel) is likely to start tonight in place of Lowry. Bembry has started two games without Lowry or VanVleet and with Siakam active and has averaged 31 minutes per game. In 11 total starts this season, Bembry has averaged 26.7 minutes per game and 0.77 DraftKings points per minute. Bembry has played a total of 92 minutes alongside Siakam without Lowry or VanVleet and has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute. Bembry should play about 30 minutes, and he stands out as a strong value on DraftKings.
Cody Martin ($3,200 DraftKings/$3,600 SG FanDuel) or Caleb Martin ($3,100 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) could start in place of Rozier tonight. Cody has been ahead of Caleb for most of the season, but Caleb played 18.6 minutes to Cody’s 8.6 minutes on Sunday. Cody has averaged 0.73 DraftKings points per minute this season while Caleb Martin has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute. Neither one is particularly “safe” but there are a lot of minutes available tonight, and if one of them starts, they will project as a strong point-per-dollar value.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jaylen Brown, Miles Bridges, Bojan Bogdanovic, DeAndre’ Bembry
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jaylen Brown, Miles Bridges, Bojan Bogdanovic
[JOINMLB+]
Power Forward
Jayson Tatum ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) isn’t the best option amongst the expensive power forwards, but his ceiling is just as high. He has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute in 26 games played with Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown this season, which puts his median projection slightly lower than the other top options at his position. He has a 29.9 percent usage rate in those games, however, and is one of the most talented players in the NBA. He also has a favorable matchup against the Blazers, so pay attention to his ownership in tournaments.
Domantas Sabonis ($8,800 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) will once again be playing without Myles Turner. Sabonis has only played 32.7 and 29.7 minutes in his two games since returning from injury, so there is some reason to be concerned about his playing time. Still, he has averaged 35.7 minutes per game this season so it is likely that his playing time increases sooner rather than later. Sabonis also benefits from Turner’s absence because the majority of his minutes will come at center. Sabonis has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute in 13 games without Turner since the start of last season compared to 1.28 DraftKings points per minute when Turner plays.
Pascal Siakam ($8,800 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) will once again be playing without Lowry or VanVleet. Siakam has been disappointing in his three starts without them so far this season, averaging only 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.6 percent usage rate, 8.9 percent rebounding rate and 8.5 percent assist rate in 38.4 minutes per game. He has played 196 total minutes without Lowry or VanVleet on the floor this season, however, and has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.5 percent usage rate, 10.1 percent rebounding rate and 17.5 percent assist rate. Siakam has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute in 44 total games played this season, so Lowry and VanVleet’s absences should lead to increased production for Siakam. At worst, Siakam should have average production, which would still make him a strong option tonight.
Marcus Morris ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.7 percent usage rate in four games alongside Paul George without Leonard since last season. Morris has averaged 29.4 minutes per game in 15 total starts this season and he has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute in 468 minutes without Leonard on the floor. He projects as a strong point-per-dollar option that offers upside as well.
Jalen McDaniels ($4,300 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) has been starting recently for the Hornets and that is unlikely to change tonight with Charlotte being even more short-handed. In four starts, McDaniels has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute and 26.8 minutes per game. Overall this season, he has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute in 349 minutes played. He is expensive on FanDuel, but offers value on DraftKings in a game where he is likely to exceed 30 minutes of floor time.
Georges Niang ($3,100 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) has only started one game in the last two seasons, so it is unclear if he will replace Royce O’Neale in the starting lineup tonight or not. Utah could elect to use pretty much anyone since they have positional flexibility within their starting lineup. Even if he doesn’t start, Niang is likely to see increased playing time, however, as O’Neale and Joe Ingles have both been ruled out tonight. Ingles played 30.6 minutes last night while O’Neale played 37.5 minutes. Even assuming that Mike Conley replaces Ingles’ playing time, that leaves nearly 38 minutes that need to be filled. Niang has averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute this season and is nearly minimum salary in a favorable matchup against the Thunder.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis, Pascal Siakam, Marcus Morris, Jalen McDaniels
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum, Domantas Sabonis, Pascal Siakam, Marcus Morris
Center
Clint Capela ($8,500 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel) has been an extremely productive per-minute fantasy producer this season and his playing time is more secure with Collins sidelined. Capela has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute and 30 minutes per game in 47 total games played this season. In six games played without Collins, he has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute and 34.3 minutes per game. The opportunity cost at center on this slate isn’t as high as it typically is, so it should be easier than normal to get Capela into your lineups.
Rudy Gobert ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) played 33.3 minutes against Washington tonight and should get another 30 to 33 minutes against Oklahoma City tonight as long as the Thunder are able to keep the game competitive. There is some risk that Utah runs shorter rotations since they are resting a couple of their main players on the back-to-back, but the assumption is going to be that players who are active will get normal minutes. Gobert has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute and 30.9 minutes per game overall this season.
Andre Drummond ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) is questionable tonight after playing 25 minutes last night against the Knicks. If he plays, he still offers upside at this price tag. Drummond has only averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute with the Lakers, but he has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute overall this season. His per-minute production should increase going forward as he gets back into game shape — at least until Davis and/or James are back on the floor.
Robert Williams ($6,000 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) is a very volatile option at an attractive price point. Williams has averaged 25.2 minutes per game in nine starts this season. In those starts, he has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. He isn’t a high-usage player, but he is a good rebounder and shot blocker who has also shown the ability to pick up assists from the center position. His floor is relatively low for his salary, but it is difficult to find anyone that offers better per-minute production for such a cheap price tag.
Ivica Zubac ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) looks like one of the better values at the center position tonight with Leonard and Serge Ibaka sidelined. Zubac has averaged 27.8 minutes per game and 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in 16 total starts this season. Two of those starts came without Leonard and with George active, and Zubac has played 32.4 minutes per game with 1.16 DraftKings points per minute (including 35.3 minutes against the Pistons on Sunday). Zubac has played a total of 605 minutes without Leonard on the floor this season and has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute.
Cody Zeller ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) may get the start tonight in place of Washington, though it could also be Bismack Biyombo. Zeller has been ahead of Biyombo in the rotation recently and has played at least 22 minutes in three of his last five games. Close to 48 minutes should be split between Zeller and Biyombo at center tonight, so Zeller grades out as a strong option if he gets the start because that would signal that he is likely to get the bulk of the minutes. Zeller has produced 1.09 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 1.22 DraftKings points per minute in 164 minutes without Hayward or Ball on the floor.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Clint Capela, Rudy Gobert, Ivica Zubac
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Clint Capela, Rudy Gobert, Ivica Zubac
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS picks content? We have loads of NBA DFS picks articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS picks cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page. Just click HERE.
