This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS picks and strategy article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA daily fantasy basketball picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | June 8
Point Guard
Trae Young ($9,200 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) torched the 76ers in Game 1 as he poured in 35 points to go along with 10 assists. Philadelphia will probably use a different game plan defensively in Game 2 tonight against the 76ers since Danny Green was clearly not the answer, but Young is a dynamic player who is likely to produce at a relatively high rate regardless of what the 76ers do. So far in the postseason, Young has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute, a 35.6 percent usage rate and 50 percent assist rate. He has also averaged 36.8 minutes per game, including the 39 minutes that he played last game.
Ben Simmons ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) played 37.2 minutes in the first game of the series and appears to be slightly underpriced on tonight’s two-game slate. Simmons has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute in the five postseason games he has played with Embiid active, and he should play another 37 or 38 minutes tonight as long as the game is competitive. Simmons averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute in 42 games alongside Embiid during the regular season, his production should decrease as the postseason sample size grows, but he still looks like a strong mid-range option, even assuming regular season production.
Jordan Clarkson ($5,800 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) is likely to play an increased role with Mike Conley sidelined. Clarkson played 30.5 minutes in Game 5 against Memphis, including about 17 minutes in the second half after Conley had left the game. In 10 games with Donovan Mitchell active and Conley inactive during the regular season, Clarkson averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute and 28.3 minutes per game. Clarkson comes into Tuesday night with the No. 1 overall value score in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections at 4.31.
Reggie Jackson ($5,400 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against Utah, who finished the regular season with the league’s third-best defensive rating. Jackson joined the starting lineup a couple of games into the Clippers’ first-round series, and he fared well from a DFS standpoint. In the five games that he started, Jackson averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute and 31.8 minutes per game. In 19 starts alongside Kawhi Leonard and Paul George during the regular season, Jackson only averaged 24.8 minutes per game, but he produced 0.84 DraftKings points per minute. Jackson’s playing time to be closer to his postseason average given the changes in the Clippers’ rotation — assuming that they continue to use small lineups against Utah.
Top DraftKings Picks: Trae Young, Ben Simmons, Jordan Clarkson
Top FanDuel Picks: Ben Simmons, Jordan Clarkson, Reggie Jackson
Shooting Guard
Paul George ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) played huge minutes in the series against the Mavericks, and there is no reason to think that won’t continue in the second round against Utah. George averaged 1.16 DraftKings points in 40.7 minutes per game in the seven games against Dallas. During the regular season, George produced 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in 43 games alongside Kawhi Leonard.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,200 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) was excellent against the Grizzlies after returning from injury. He averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute with a 37.4 percent usage rate and 33.1 percent assist rate in four games against Memphis. While he only averaged 30 minutes per game, it is important to remember that he was on a minutes restriction for the first couple of games after his return. Mitchell played 34.7 minutes in Game 3, and he should not be limited in this series. He also could see a bump in production while Conley is sidelined. Mitchell averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.2 percent usage rate and 25.1 percent assist rate in 42 games with Conley active this season compared to 1.45 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.9 percent usage rate and 32.2 percent assist rate in 11 games without Conley.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,800 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) played 36.1 minutes in Game 1 and has averaged 35.7 minutes per game in the postseason. He has produced 0.95 DraftKings points per minute in those games, which is similar to his production in the second half of the regular season. Bogdanovic doesn’t stand out as an exciting option at his price, but he could be a useful piece to round out lineups.
Joe Ingles ($4,900 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) is likely to get a bump without Conley. Ingles started the second half after Conley was injured in Game 4 against Memphis. Ingles averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute and 30.2 minutes per game in 11 regular season games with Conley sidelined and Mitchell active. According to the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections, Ingles is projected for 29.2 minutes in tonight’s Game 1 against the Clippers.
Kevin Huerter ($4,300 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) played 28.9 minutes in the first game of the season, and he could see a similar number of minutes tonight if De’Andre Hunter (questionable) is sidelined again. There will still be risk if Hunter sits since Danilo Gallinari only played 17.9 minutes last game, and he could easily steal minutes from Huerter. At his price point, however, there is upside for Huerter is Hunter is out. Huerter has produced 0.89 DraftKings points per minute through six games this postseason.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/08/2021″ team=”hawks”]
Top DraftKings Picks: Paul George, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles
Top FanDuel Picks: Paul George, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles
Small Forward
Kawhi Leonard ($9,900 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) headlines a weak small forward position tonight. Leonard averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute in the Clippers’ series against Dallas in 40.7 minutes per game. During the regular season, Leonard averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in 43 games played with George, so he should continue to produce 1.30 to 1.40 DraftKings points per minute in this series. He is expensive, but the opportunity cost at his position is lower than most other positions so he carries some extra value in that regard on FanDuel. Leonard is No. 2 overall in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections, with a projected point total of 49.70 — behind only Joel Embiid.
Nicolas Batum ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) averaged 0.72 DraftKings points per minute and 36.9 minutes per game in four starts against the Mavericks last round. It is not certain if the Clippers will continue to start a small lineup, but they likely will. They closed their last game of the regular season against Utah with a small lineup and won that game. In addition, Quin Snyder said that he is fully expecting them to use a small lineup to pull Rudy Gobert away from the basket. In 25 regular season starts with Leonard and George active, Batum averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,000 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) didn’t see a bump in production in the games that he played without Conley and with Mitchell during the regular season, but he is affordably priced — especially on FanDuel with two small forwards. In those 11 games, Bogdanovic averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute and a 20.3 percent usage rate. This postseason, Bogdanovic has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute and a 21.7 percent usage rate. Most notably, Bogdanovic has averaged 33 minutes per game which is 2 to 3 minutes more than he averaged during the regular season. He has a relatively low floor since he is a scoring-dependent player that isn’t a top scoring option on his team, but he is at a reasonable price point.
Top DraftKings Picks: Kawhi Leonard, Nicolas Batum
Top FanDuel Picks: Kawhi Leonard, Bojan Bogdanovic
Power Forward
Tobias Harris ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) isn’t nearly as productive a DFS option when Embiid is active as when he is inactive, but it is only a two-game slate and Harris is projected for 38.13 points tonight in Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball projections. He played about 36 minutes in the series opener, and he should play 36 to 38 minutes tonight. During the regular season, Harris produced 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 37 games with Simmons and Embiid active.
John Collins ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) played 33.9 minutes in the series opener. His playing time has fluctuated throughout the postseason, but he should play at least 30 minutes if he is able to avoid foul trouble. Collins has only averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this postseason, but his salary reflects that. He averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in games that Young and Clint Capela were active during the regular season, so his production should increase as the sample size grows.
Marcus Morris ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) averaged 33.4 minutes per game and 0.65 DraftKings points per minute in the seven games against Dallas. He benefited from the Clippers’ small lineups, however, as he averaged 5.75 rebounds per game in the final four games compared to 1.67 rebounds per game in the first three games. Morris also played 42 minutes in two of the final three games, and he could play huge minutes again tonight if he is able to avoid foul trouble. Morris averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute in 17 starts alongside Leonard and George during the regular season.
Top DraftKings Picks: John Collins, Marcus Morris
Top FanDuel Picks: Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris
Center
Joel Embiid ($10,000 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) is questionable tonight, but he played 38 minutes in the series opener and should play tonight. He seemed to struggle a bit defensively out of the gate, but he had no issues on the offensive end, as he contributed 62.75 DraftKings points with 39 actual points. Embiid’s salary has increased since then, but he is one of the top options on tonight’s slate, according to Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball projections.
Rudy Gobert ($7,900 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) will have the rebounding advantage against the Clippers if they continue to use a small lineup. Gobert has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute this postseason in 32.4 minutes per game. During the regular season, Gobert averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute and 30.8 minutes per game during the regular season. He is a strong mid-range option.
Clint Capela ($7,800 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) struggled against the Knicks in the first round, and it carried over to the first game of his series against the 76ers. Capela played 32 minutes and only produced 28.5 DraftKings points with an 11-point, 10-rebound double-double. He will have his hands full on the defensive end in this series, but that also means that he is likely to play a lot of minutes as long as he can avoid foul trouble. Capela has a very high ceiling, as he averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season, but he has produced just 0.97 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason.
Top DraftKings Picks: Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert
Top FanDuel Picks: Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert
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