There are six games on tonight’s NBA DFS slate for DraftKings and FanDuel, and most have playoff implications. As a result, and with injuries in several spots, gamers can expect heavy usage from studs and possibly some different rotations than have been seen throughout the year. At this point in the season, injury and lineups news will be extremely important to monitor, so make sure you’re staying on top of it to make the most optimal NBA DFS picks. I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 p.m. EST every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | May 10
Update 1: The Cavaliers will be short-handed again tonight. Cedi Osman, Darius Garland and Isaiah Hartenstein will be out again after missing last night’s game. Kevin Love will join them on the sidelines, which opens up another 28 to 30 frontcourt minutes. Dean Wade started in place of Osman last night and I expect he starts again tonight. He played 28.6 minutes last night and is likely to play 30 to 34 minutes tonight against the Pacers. He is a strong value as he has averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute in 15 starts this season and he is near minimum salary.
It remains to be seen who starts in place of Love. Based on last night’s rotation my guess is Brodric Thomas, but Damyean Dotson or Mfiondu Kabengele are also reasonable guesses. All three players are essentially minimum salary. Thomas has averaged 0.72 DraftKings points per minute this season, Dotson has averaged 0.67 DraftKings points per minute and Kabengele has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute. Whichever one starts is worth a look, but keep in mind that none of them are great fantasy producers and we could see the playing time devolve into a hot hand situation. The Cavs also have Jeremiah Martin who could steal some minutes from this group.
Isaac Okoro becomes an interesting play in tournaments tonight with Love out. Okoro has averaged 33.9 minutes per game in his six games without Drummond and Garland and with Sexton. He has only produced 0.60 DraftKings points per minute in those games, but the increased possessions that come from playing the Pacers should increase his per-minute production. There is a chance that he approaches 40 minutes tonight given the lack of alternatives available for the Cavs and the fact that he is one of the young players they are looking to develop in a lost season.
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook ($11,000 DraftKings/$12,400 FanDuel) is finally priced up on FanDuel but he remains only $11,000 on DraftKings. Bradley Beal is out tonight, so he is even more underpriced than usual. In eight games without Beal this season, Westbrook has averaged 1.74 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.7 percent usage rate, 16.3 percent rebounding rate and 58.2 percent assist rate. Westbrook leads the NBA with 38.5 minutes per game over the last month (18 games played) and he will need to play a ton of minutes again tonight against Atlanta. Westbrook is currently second in the Awesemo NBA DFS projections with 38 minutes tonight.
Stephen Curry ($10,500 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Utah Jazz, but he has been absolutely phenomenal without Kelly Oubre on the floor this season. In 863 minutes without Oubre, Curry has averaged 1.70 DraftKings points per minute with 69.4 percent true shooting on 37.1 percent usage. Oubre’s absence not only increases Curry’s shot volume but also allows the offense as a whole to function more efficiently. It will be difficult to prioritize Curry over Westbrook given the difference in matchups and the fact that Westbrook averages two to three more minutes per game, but Curry is still an excellent option if you can find the salary.
Damian Lillard ($9,700 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) is another high upside point guard who is in a game that his team needs to win. He has an excellent matchup against the Rockets, who are sixth in pace and 30th in defensive rating over the last month. There is plenty of blowout risk here as the Blazers are 14.5 point favorites, but if this game does stay relatively close, we are likely to get 37-plus minutes from Lillard in a spot where he is likely to be extremely productive. He has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in 30 games alongside C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic this season.
Trae Young ($9,300 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) often seems to go overlooked because he’s not quite as productive as the other top tier point guards on most slates. That is the case again tonight, but his salary is less expensive than the alternatives by a relatively wide margin. Young has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute and 34.4 minutes per game in 48 games played alongside John Collins and Clint Capela this season. He is facing the Wizards, who are second in pace over the last month, so he is likely to get more possessions than usual tonight and, in turn, is likely to produce more fantasy points per minute than normal. He positively correlates with Westbrook since they both benefit if this game is competitive to the end as well.
Dejounte Murray ($7,200 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) has a pace-up spot against the Bucks tonight. Milwaukee is third in pace over the last month. Murray has played 37 games without LaMarcus Aldridge and alongside DeMar DeRozan this season. In those games, Murray has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.1 percent usage rate, 11.3 percent rebounding rate and 25.6 percent assist rate in 32.5 minutes per game.
Raul Neto ($4,500 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) has already been starting games for the Wizards, but now he is likely to be more productive and play a couple more minutes with Beal sidelined. Neto is likely to play 30 to 32 minutes tonight. Of those minutes, we can expect about one-third to come without Westbrook (or Beal) on the floor. Neto has produced 0.81 DraftKings points per minute in 541 minutes without Beal or Westbrook on the floor this season. He has averaged 0.72 DraftKings points per minute in 425 minutes alongside Westbrook without Beal this season. On average, we can expect about 0.75 DraftKings points per minute and about 30 minutes from Neto at a reasonable price tag.
D.J. Augustin ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) returned from injury to play 28.9 minutes against the Bucks Friday and 18.2 minutes against the Jazz on Saturday. He started both games. We don’t know exactly who will be active for the Rockets tonight, but we do know that their backcourt will be short-handed without John Wall, Kevin Porter Jr., Eric Gordon, Avery Bradley, Sterling Brown or Dante Exum. Augustin played about 13 minutes in the first half against Utah, but sat most of the second half in a blowout (ignore the final score — the Rockets closed the game on a 14-0 run to only lose by eight). There is blowout risk again tonight, but if the game is relatively competitive, we are likely to get 26 to 28 minutes from Augustin. He has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in 16 games since joining Houston.
Ish Smith ($3,300 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) is likely to pick up a couple extra minutes as well and he is about 75 percent as expensive as Neto. Overall, Smith has produced 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season. Based on his rotations against the Phoenix Suns on April 10th (the last time that Beal sat and Westbrook played), we can expect Smith to play 22 to 24 minutes tonight. He is likely to be on the floor for every minute that Westbrook isn’t, which means that he should play about 40 percent of his minutes without Westbrook and 60 percent alongside him. Smith has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in 307 minutes alongside Westbrook without Beal this season and 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in 136 minutes without either of the star guards on the floor. On average, we can expect Smith to produce about 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over 22 to 24 minutes.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”05/10/2021″ team=”wizards”]
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Trae Young, D.J. Augustin, Ish Smith
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Trae Young, D.J. Augustin
Shooting Guard
Collin Sexton ($8,300 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) has played his last five games without Garland. We haven’t gotten an update on Garland’s status for tonight’s game, but if he is out, it benefits Sexton. Sexton has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 29 games without Andre Drummond and with Garland this season. In six games without Drummond and without Garland, Sexton has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute. While the per-minute production is about the same, Sexton’s assist rate in the games without Garland increases from 19.6 percent to 30.2 percent so his ceiling is higher at the very least — and it is likely that his per-minute production would increase over a larger sample. Sexton has an excellent matchup tonight against the Indiana Pacers, who are first in pace and 16th in defensive rating over the last month. Sexton is a strong option at shooting guard with or without Garland, but he is better if Garland sits.
C.J. McCollum ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) offers exposure to Portland’s backcourt without having to pay a premium for Damian Lillard. The shooting guard position is also weaker than the point guard position, so the opportunity cost for rostering McCollum is lower. McCollum has produced 1.17 DraftKings points per minute and has averaged 34.8 minutes per game in 30 games played with Lillard and Nurkic this season.
Jordan Clarkson ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) is efficiently priced at this point, but that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t still have upside at a relatively weak shooting guard position. Clarkson has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute and 32.2 minutes per game in eight games without Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell this season. He has a 29.9 percent usage rate in those games, but he is relatively scoring dependent with an 18.8 percent assist rate. His usage rate is high for his price point, so his ceiling is a bit higher than most options priced around him. He gets a pace-up spot against the Warriors as well, as Golden State has played at the seventh fastest pace over the last month.
Eric Bledsoe ($5,900 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) produced a big game last night and he will once again be playing without Brandon Ingram or Zion Williamson tonight. In 222 minutes without either one on the floor this season, Bledsoe has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute. He is likely to play 32 to 34 minutes tonight, making him a strong mid-range option at shooting guard.
Jordan Poole ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,100 PG FanDuel) has seen inconsistent playing time recently, but the upside is there with the Warriors short-handed. Over Golden State’s last couple games, Poole has seemingly pulled ahead of Mychal Mulder in the rotation as he has played 26 and 34 minutes in his last two games compared to Mulder’s 20 and 22 minutes. While both of those games were blowout wins over Oklahoma City, Poole played about 15 first half minutes on Saturday and about 13 first half minutes on Thursday. If we can expect Poole to play 26 to 30 minutes in competitive games, he offers value at his current price point. In 11 games without Oubre and with Curry this season, Poole has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute.
Lonnie Walker ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) started and played 28 minutes against the Blazers last game and he lost about five minutes to garbage time. In the game before that, he played about 33 minutes against the Kings. Walker has started 22 games without Derrick White and with DeRozan and Murray active this season. In those games, Walker has averaged 0.73 DraftKings points per minute and 29 minutes per game. He isn’t a particularly exciting option, but he projects as a viable point-per-dollar value in the Awesemo NBA DFS projections that will allow you to get more exciting players into your lineup elsewhere.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Collin Sexton, C.J. McCollum, Eric Bledsoe
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Collin Sexton, C.J. McCollum, Eric Bledsoe
Small Forward
Joe Ingles ($6,300 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) is a top small forward option tonight, which tells you all that you need to know about the strength of the position. Ingles has benefited from the absences of Mitchell and Conley as he has taken over the primary playmaking duties for Utah. In the eight games that he has played without the starting backcourt, Ingles has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute and 31 minutes per game. Ingles has a 20.1 percent usage rate and 35.6 percent assist rate in those games.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) is even more scoring dependent than Clarkson, but he has a similar usage rate in the eight games they have played without Conley or Mitchell. Bogdanovic has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute and 33.4 minutes per game in those games with a 29.7 percent usage rate. He has averaged only four rebounds and two assists per game in those games so you’re in trouble if he shoots poorly, but he still offers a high ceiling at this salary because of the increased usage.
Norman Powell ($6,100 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) gets an excellent matchup against the Rockets and he looks especially valuable on FanDuel where the small forward position is weak and he is only $5,600. Powell has played 17 games with Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic active since joining the Blazers. In those games, he has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute and 32.9 minutes per game.
Naji Marshall ($5,000 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) started and played 27.2 minutes against Charlotte last night. Ingram and Williamson are out again tonight, so there should be plenty of playing time available for Marshall. It is worth noting that Nickeil Alexander-Walker returned to the rotation last night so Marshall’s playing time isn’t quite as secure (Alexander-Walker closed over him in a competitive game) but we can still expect 28 to 30 minutes most nights. Marshall has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute and 28.5 minutes per game in six starts this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, Norman Powell
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, Norman Powell, Keldon Johnson
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) headlines a deep power forward position as he takes on the San Antonio Spurs. Antetokounmpo is one of the best per-minute fantasy producers in the league and he has played more minutes in competitive games than he did last season so his ceiling is even higher than it has been in the past. Overall, Antetokounmpo has averaged 1.70 DraftKings points per minute and 33 minutes per game this season. In close games, however, we often see 35 to 37 minutes from Antetokounmpo. He has a middle of the road matchup against the Spurs tonight as San Antonio is 20th in pace and 14th in defensive rating over the last month. The biggest issue for Antetokounmpo is that we can’t project him for quite as many minutes (he’s currently at 32.6 in our NBA DFS projected stats) as a few of the other pay-up options and his team is fully healthy. Still, he is a great play if you find a way to get him into your lineup.
Domantas Sabonis ($10,600 DraftKings/$10,700 FanDuel) is extremely expensive but it is warranted based on his recent performances. Malcolm Brogdon is questionable tonight and his status will ultimately determine my interest in Sabonis. Sabonis has averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute and 37.9 minutes per game in six games without Brogdon and Myles Turner (who is out tonight) this season. By comparison, he has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute and 35.2 minutes per game in seven games alongside Brogdon and without Turner. Turner’s absence benefits Sabonis because he gets more minutes at center, but Brogdon’s absence increases Sabonis’ assist rate from about 24 percent to about 36 percent. If both players are out, Sabonis is a viable option in tournaments despite the elevated price tag. If Brogdon is active, it will be difficult to justify the salary since there are so many alternatives at that price point on this slate.
John Collins ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) is a difficult player to trust for a few reasons. For one, his playing time has been relatively volatile this season and we can never rely on him to exceed 30 minutes in any given game. In addition, his production is volatile as he loses usage to Trae Young and he loses rebounds to Capela. Still, he is at an affordable salary tonight in an excellent matchup against the Wizards. This game has the second-highest total on the slate at 236.5 points and Collins is likely to produce at an above-average rate against Washington. Collins has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute and 29.6 minutes per game in 48 total games with Young and Capela active this season.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”05/10/2021″ team=”hawks”]
Kenyon Martin Jr. ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) has been one of the few bright spots for the Rockets recently. Martin has played 44, 39 and 39 minutes in his last three games with Houston short-handed and there is a chance that he will need to play about 40 minutes again tonight. Kelly Olynyk and Christian Wood are both questionable. If they both play, Martin will most likely lose enough minutes to not be a great option at his increased salary. If one plays, he will be risky but still has a reasonable path to success. If both sit, as they did in Houston’s last game, he will most likely start at center and play about 40 minutes again. Martin has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 1.06 DraftKings points per minute in 299 minutes without Wall, Harden, Olynyk, Wood or Porter on the floor.
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,000 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) joined the Grizzlies’ starting lineup last game and played 5.7 minutes. He wasn’t in the closing lineup, which is somewhat concerning because it could mean that Memphis only wants to play him around 26 minutes even as a starter. It is worth noting, however, that De’Anthony Melton scored 15 points in the fourth quarter (seriously, how doesn’t this guy play more) and closed over Jackson. We don’t know what would have happened if Melton wasn’t on fire so it is possible that we get 30 minutes from Jackson tonight against a depleted New Orleans’ frontcourt. Even if we only get about 26 minutes, Jackson looks like a strong option at this price point. He has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in his eight games this season and 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in 58 starts dating back to last season.
Danilo Gallinari ($4,800 DraftKings/$6,300 SF FanDuel) has been getting increased minutes for Atlanta, and based on his DraftKings’ ownership last game, it doesn’t seem like people have noticed. Gallinari played 28.5 minutes off the bench against Indiana last game. Prior to that, he had played 24 minutes in a blowout win over the Suns and 32 minutes in a competitive game against Portland. The Hawks are getting healthier and De’Andre Hunter could return to the rotation tonight, but I think it’s likely that we continue to see at least 26 to 28 minutes from Gallinari in competitive games. He has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in 34 games with Young, Collins and Capela active this season and he has a great matchup against Washington.
James Johnson ($4,600 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) started and played about 30 minutes against Charlotte last night. He should be in the starting lineup again tonight with Ingram and Williamson sidelined. As mentioned with Naji Marshall, the return of Alexander-Walker makes Johnson’s minutes floor a bit lower but we can still expect 28 to 30 minutes on average. Johnson has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute since joining New Orleans this season.
Keldon Johnson ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,500 SF FanDuel) is one of my least favorite players to talk about because he seems to always disappoint, but his salary is at a very affordable level. He has been less productive since the All-Star break, but he has still averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in 35 games since the break. He has averaged 28.6 minutes per game in those games. He is affordable tonight in a pace-up spot against the Bucks.
Davis Bertans ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) has been wildly disappointing this season, but he will need to take on an increased scoring role for Washington with Beal sidelined. Bertans has only played three games without Beal and with Westbrook this season, but he has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute and 25.2 minutes per game in those games. In 535 minutes without Beal on the floor this season, Bertans has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute with a 17.1 percent usage rate compared to 0.69 DraftKings points per minute with a 13.3 percent usage rate in 806 minutes alongside Beal. Bertans is still a risky option because he is a scoring dependent player with a low usage rate, but he is likely to benefit from Beal’s absence.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Domantas Sabonis (if Brogdon sits), John Collins, Keldon Johnson, Davis Bertans
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Domantas Sabonis (if Brogdon sits), John Collins, Jaren Jackson, Davis Bertans
Center
Rudy Gobert ($8,500 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) could benefit not only from the Warriors’ elevated pace but also the fact that Golden State is likely to be able to hang in the game with Utah. The Jazz are only two point favorites and we often see Gobert’s playing time reduced because of blowouts. In the seven games that Gobert has played without Conley and Mitchell, he has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute and 28.5 minutes per game. In competitive games, however, we typically get 33 to 34 minutes from Gobert.
Clint Capela ($8,400 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) is another center that has a massive ceiling for his price point but also has playing time volatility. For the season, Capela has averaged 29.6 minutes per game in 48 games with Young and Collins active. We have occasionally seen Capela play 34 or 35 minutes in games recently, with the most recent time coming May 3rd against Portland. While the Wizards don’t have an imposing frontcourt, they do play a traditional center for 48 minutes so there is a chance that Capela picks up a couple of extra minutes tonight. Even if he only plays 30 minutes, he offers upside as he has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute in the games that he has played with Young and Collins this season.
Jonas Valanciunas ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) is almost a carbon copy of Capela from a DFS standpoint. He has averaged 28.1 minutes per game and 1.37 DraftKings points per minute this season. He has played at least 30 minutes in four of his last five games, however, and the game that he didn’t was because he fouled out in 20 minutes. Valanciunas played 36 minutes against the Raptors on Saturday and if he plays another 36 against the Pelicans tonight he is likely to be one of the best plays on the slate as the Pelicans are missing their entire frontcourt. Even if Valanciunas plays 30 minutes, he has the ability to give us 50-plus fantasy points.
Jusuf Nurkic ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) has been hurt by frequent blowouts recently, but he played 30.7 minutes in the Blazers’ last competitive game on Friday. We have seen Nurkic play around 30 minutes in competitive games recently and he has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in games with Lillard and McCollum this season. He doesn’t offer the same playing time upside as the centers listed above him since it’s unlikely we ever get 36 minutes from him tonight, but he is also a bit less expensive and in an excellent matchup.
Jarrett Allen ($6,800 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) has a great matchup against the Pacers and the Cavaliers are short-handed once again. Allen played 26 minutes against Dallas last night but lost the fourth quarter to garbage time. Based on the first half, Allen would have played at least 32 minutes if the game were competitive. Allen has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in 1,069 minutes without Drummond or Kevin Love (who is out) on the floor since joining Cleveland. He is likely to produce at an above-average rate due to the pace that the Pacers play at and we could possibly see more playing time as well since the Cavaliers’ frontcourt is short-handed and they don’t have many options that have a chance of slowing down Sabonis. If you do choose to roll with Allen, make sure to find some ways to differentiate your lineups, as he’s currently at 24 percent in Awesemo’s NBA ownership projections.
Guillermo Hernangomez ($5,700 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) and Jaxson Hayes ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,600 PF FanDuel) were both in the winning lineup in the big $20 tournament on DraftKings last night. I personally think that rostering them together is a horrible strategy and I don’t recommend it, but individually they both offer upside tonight. While they will most likely combine for 48 minutes, the way that those minutes are split is volatile and depends in part on how each player is playing. Hernangomez has started eight games without Steven Adams this season and has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute and 25.4 minutes per game. Hayes has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute and 20 minutes per game in eight games off the bench without Adams. Again, allocating over $10,000 to two players who will combine for a maximum of 48 minutes is typically a terrible strategy, but either of these guys could play 26-plus minutes and produce well over a fantasy point per minute tonight against Memphis. Hernangomez is the “safer” of the two options assuming he starts again, but Hayes will most likely have less ownership.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Clint Capela, Jonas Valanciunas, Jarrett Allen, Guillermo Hernangomez
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela, Jarrett Allen, Guillermo Hernangomez
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