This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks today for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | June 18
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Point Guard
Trae Young ($9,900 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) has surpassed all expectations in these playoffs and will need some more magic to close out this 76ers team that has struggled to contain him in one dimension or another throughout the series. In Game 4, Young handed out a career-high 18 assists en route to the win; in Game 5, he got to the line 19 times to score 17 of his 39 points. Who knows what he’ll have in store for Game 6, but he has a number of paths to keep this tremendous run going. Young is right behind Donovan Mitchell in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections, with a 48.67 point projection tonight.
Ben Simmons ($7,900 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) saw a big price drop down from $8,500 on FanDuel, making him far more intriguing as a secondary option to Young. Despite all the hate being directed his way, he carries triple-double upside every time he touches the court and his under $8,000 on both sites. Plus, he is most likely going to get hacked to the line for double-digit free throws once again, which should lock him in for another 4-6 freebie fantasy points.
Mike Conley ($6,800 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) is the massive question mark on this slate, as it sounds he is more than likely to play today and Donovan Mitchell is now the one more on the verge of sitting. Considering he hasn’t seen the floor since June 2, it’s hard to know what to make of how many minutes he’ll play. He’s an impossible play to get to — even on just a two-game slate — and is only listed here as he could affect the value of other Jazz players drastically should he return.
Jordan Clarkson ($6,200 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) becomes far more intriguing should Mitchell sit, as there is no doubt his scoring will be required to help the Jazz take Game 6. At $5,200 he’s playable regardless of Conley’s situation, too, as he’ll still see high-20’s minutes and is still scoring dependent.
Reggie Jackson ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) saw a price hike from $4,800 on FanDuel, but it’s still not enough considering his role on a Kawhi Leonard-less basketball team. His 23.5% usage in Game 5 should be a sign of things to come offensively.
Patrick Beverley ($3,000 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) is the punt, the whole punt and nothing but the punt one might need to get different. With minutes ranging from 16-to-21 in Games 2-thru-5, he’s the best of the minimum salary options on DraftKings.
Top DraftKings Picks: Trae Young, Ben Simmons, Reggie Jackson
Top FanDuel Picks: Trae Young, Jordan Clarkson, Reggie Jackson
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/18/2021″ team=”hawks”]
Shooting Guard
Paul George ($10,100 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel) rightfully saw a massive salary increase after Game 5’s evisceration of the Jazz. He’ll have his work cut out for him once again tonight, but he’s still underpriced for his new role on both sites, especially in these small ball lineups where 16 rebound outings like he had last game are certainly in the cards. George is currently the No. 1 player in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections, with an even 57 point projection tonight.
Donovan Mitchell ($9,300 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) might sit tonight but won’t be the priority he once was with the assumed return of Conley. He still flashed upside along Conley versus the Grizzlies, but the Clippers are far superior defensive test.\
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,400 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) was limited to only 21 minutes in Game 5, mainly because Lou Williams was out of his mind in helping erase the Hawks’ 26-point deficit. He is now at a price on FanDuel where he needs to be prioritized, especially if others take weak shots on Williams repeating last game’s retro performance.
Seth Curry ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) was unconscious in Game 5, scoring 36 real points en route to 51.75 DraftKings points. His price was bumped slightly over there, but it saw a major spike to $6,200 on FanDuel. At a position laden with studs higher than him and necessary value lower than him, he’s in no-man’s land.
Kevin Huerter ($4,300 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) played 27 minutes in the Hawks Game 5 victory but went an abysmal 0-for-7 from the floor en route to only 5.5 DraftKings points. Any reversion back to his Game 1 and 2 shooting makes him a decent points-per-dollar play on both sites, but the threat of Lou Williams and his lack of usage makes him a less-appealing target for tournaments at 30%-plus ownership.
Furkan Korkmaz ($3,900 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) can spike random upside at any time (so long as he’s in the starting lineup), but this comes down to an issue of him not being in the same range as Terance Mann on FanDuel and much more expensive than him on DraftKings. A little too cute at 20%-plus ownership considering Mann’s existence on this slate.
Terance Mann ($3,200 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) saw virtually no change to his DraftKings price despite 26 minutes and 23 fantasy points in Game 5. Without Leonard, he’s going to play 20-plus minutes going forward unless the apocalypse hits, so at $3,200 on DraftKings he’s a phenomenal play. Still in the pool on FanDuel, but Boggy still gets the nod at his decreased tag.
Top DraftKings Picks: Paul George, Terance Mann
Top FanDuel Picks: Paul George, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Small Forward
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,900 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) went ballistic in the first quarter of Game 5, knocking down his first six attempts from deep. He finished with 32 points and will need to repeat that sort of performance if Mitchell can’t give it a go. Play by necessity on FanDuel, fine as a part of a game stack on DraftKings.
Nicolas Batum ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) had a laughably-low increase of only $300 despite 42 minutes without Leonard on the floor. He only had a 6.8% usage in Game 5, so imagine what his upside is at $4,900 if he shoots the ball whatsoever this time around. Favorite play — and the No. 3 overall value, according to Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections — on the slate.
Danilo Gallinari ($4,500 PF DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) is a play that provides a bit of savings on both sites. Good to see him reach 30 minutes last game and should be in line for high 20s with upside for more again this time around.
Matisse Thybulle ($3,000 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) saw both of his tags unaffected after Game 5 and might be a punt-by-necessity on FanDuel where there are only four true plays at the position. He is neck and neck with Beverley for best minimum salary play on DraftKings.
Top DraftKings Picks: Nicolas Batum
Top FanDuel Picks: Nicolas Batum
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/18/2021″ team=”clippers”]
Power Forward
Tobias Harris ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) could not have possibly played worse in Game 5, leaving the Philly faithful dumbfounded by his 2-for-11, four-point spectacle. On FanDuel he’s now the top play at the position by a wide margin, but less of a priority on DraftKings if trying to make room for Embiid. Despite the up-and-down series, Harris still comes in just a shade under 40 points in tonight’s daily fantasy basketball projections.
John Collins ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) is now the most expensive power forward on FanDuel, making it a real tough roster over there. At $6,300 on DraftKings on the heels of consecutive double-doubles, he still projects out phenomenally well.
Marcus Morris ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) didn’t get nearly the credit George did for the Clippers Game 5 upset win, but he deserves it. That is two straight 36-plus DraftKings points performances and should continue to see elevated usage in Leonard’s absence.
Royce O’Neale ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) provides the savings to fit George/Embiid into lineups with ease on FanDuel. Passing on Harris/Collins/Morris loses a lot of upside, but O’Neale can still work out optimally if at least one somewhat fails.
Top DraftKings Picks: John Collins, Marcus Morris
Top FanDuel Picks: Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris
Center
Joel Embiid ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel) is currently questionable, but it would be a true shocker to not have Embiid on the floor this evening regardless of his knee’s condition.
Rudy Gobert ($7,500 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) has had his value clearly affected by the small-ball rotations the Clippers keep throwing his way. 41 minutes and yet only 32.5 FanDuel points in Game 5 is not ideal, but that’s also kept his price down. The best point-per-dollar play of the center trio, hands down.
Clint Capela ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) saw his tags unaffected after Game 5 and is now much closer in projection to teammate John Collins for DraftKings purposes. He is the only other center to remotely consider on FanDuel, and depending who else makes lineups, he might be more intriguing than Gobert for that reason alone.
Top DraftKings Picks: Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert
Top FanDuel Picks: Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela
Be sure to check out today’s NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock for a full daily fantasy breakdown for 76ers vs. Hawks and Jazz vs. Clippers.
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