The NBA may have stopped but that doesn’t mean we don’t have e-sports contests! FanDuel has kept it going with contests every night. Here are Sam Smith’s TOP NBA DFS Picks.
FanDuel NBA DFS Sim Sports Rules
- Players are randomly assigned stats from a game they played during the 2019-2020 season.
- Only players who have scored fantasy points in at least 15 games will be included in the pool.
- The opponent matchups in each slate are irrelevant for the simulations.
- Only games where players scored more than zero points will be available to be assigned stats, No DNPs or Late Scratches.
- Scoring Example: LeBron James draws a 23 – he will get assigned the stats and Fantasy Points from the 23rd game he played this season: 65.4. Each player will be assigned a different random game.
- Again listed matchups do not matter.
NBA DFS Picks: Top Tier
James Harden
He slumped to close out the season, but Harden had a ridiculous start to 2019-20 when he was averaging close to 40 real-life points a game. He also had a number of games where Russell Westbrook sat out, and Harden consistently put up strong numbers in those games. As such, he has a 38.7 percent chance of eclipsing 60 fantasy points, making him one of the safest best for production on any slate, despite a high price of $11,200.
Luka Doncic
Doncic is a $300 discount to Harden and is one of the very few players who is in the same realm of fantasy production. He has a 30.3 percent chance of hitting 60 fantasy points today compared to Harden’s’ 38.7 percent, so you cannot go wrong playing either.
Anthony Davis
Davis averaged 52 fantasy points a game this season and hit 60 fantasy points in nearly a quarter of games. As such, despite 30 percent of his outputs going below 45 points, he has a very good chance to pay off. He is a better play than teammate LeBron James because James only hit 60 in 16.4 percent of games and is $100 more expensive than Davis.
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NBA DFS Picks: Mid Tier
Kristaps Porzingis
It is always prudent in this style of contest to target productive players who missed substantial time during the season as it lessens their sample size. Porzingis played in 51 games this year, a handful without Doncic, and he has a 29.4 percent chance of exceeding 50 fantasy points with a ceiling of 75.6.
Jonas Valanciunas
Valanciunas is about as boom/bust as mid-tier values get. He averaged 33.8 fantasy points a game, but also had a ceiling of 61.4 points (which he drew a couple weeks ago) and exceeded value in over a quarter of games. He can make or break your lineup, but Valanciunas is a game changer at $6,600.
Ja Morant
Morant rides the extremes just as his teammate Valanciunas does. In his rookie season, Morant had explosions of double-double and high-scoring games, but he also had a handful of games with single-digit fantasy production. As such, his play at $6,300 is a 50-50 proposition, but could pay off as he had a handful of 50-point games sprinkled in.
NBA DFS Picks: Value Tier
Nemanja Bjelica
Bjelica is a potential make-or-break play on this slate. While his upside is not super high with only three games over 50 fantasy points in 64 tries, he hit his target score of 6x his $5,100 tag in 40.6 percent of games this year. So close to half the time, he more than paid off his price. Bjelica is not a massive risk but he could pay off in a big way if his target games hit tonight.
Christian Wood
Wood had a few mega-duds this year, but fortunately, FanDuel’s scoring does not count games where zero fantasy points (or fewer) are scored. As such, Wood has a 36.7 percent chance of getting to at least 34 fantasy points. That gives him a good chance of hitting a nine-point bump on his season fantasy average, and at $4,900, that is a worthwhile risk.
Tim Hardaway Jr.
As seems to be the case with every one of these sim slates, small forward is a shallow position group. There are only two high-priced options and virtually nothing in the middle tier, and Hardaway presents good value at a low price. He topped 30 fantasy points in nearly a third of games this season and he is only $4,500.
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