NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

There are just two lousy games on the NBA DFS slate, and I wait until last out of everyone writing about this slate? Maybe you clicked here wanting to read about Nikola Jokic for the ninth time today; he looks fantastic. Maybe you were hoping to hear more about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander; also a top notch play on a two-game slate. Brandon Ingram, Donovan Mitchell, Zion Williamson — pick your poison, they’re all getting talked up across the NBA DFS industry. Along with two additional names, each of those players is currently appearing in greater than 40% of optimal lineups in FanDuel NBA simulations for this slate. In DraftKings NBA contests, they appear slightly less frequently, but are still largely the slate leaders. If there’s a theme here, it’s concentration — not the type that helps you read these long articles of mine, but the type that puts everyone in a GPP field on the exact same roster construction. We’re going to see that up and down the board tonight. With that in mind, and in the interest of giving you something different to read, let’s try to get weird with things.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our NBA DFS picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate and leverage score, as well as the boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Disclaimer: For tonight’s two-game slate, we are deliberately veering into lower-owned territory. The goal here is to identify players who may be underappreciated among an already sparse group. While we are looking to get weird, we are not looking to get stupid. We want to roster players who still provide some probability of landing in the optimal lineup construction and contributing to a GPP-winning score.

Derrick Favors – Utah Jazz

DraftKings – $3,800 – C / FanDuel – $4,200 – C

This one is a DraftKings-only play — sorry, fellow FanDuelers. On the blue site, Favors comes up in just 0.8% of optimal lineups and has a 3.7% boom score probability. He won’t be popular, and he certainly would be weird on a small slate, but the opportunity cost is just too high with the singular center; the numbers don’t favor the play.

The Favors play in DraftKings NBA contests is far more on the board. At just $3,800, the Jazz big man ends up landing in 9.5% of optimal lineups, given the site’s ability to move players to a variety of positions and roster multiple centers. Favors is drawing minimal ownership for a relevant name on a two-game slate, coming in with a 2.6 leverage score on ownership well below 10%. While he is not a sure shot at a ceiling score given his meager 2.6% probability of a boom score, Favors still has a strong chance of being a value piece in an optimal DraftKings NBA tournament construction tonight.

Steven Adams – New Orleans Pelicans

DraftKings – $6,100 – C / FanDuel – $5,800 – C

If the Favors pick is a “one for them” on the DraftKings side, this Adams selection probably leans more toward the FanDuel side. Adams still looks like a good play on DraftKings, and he provides the same upside of multiple centers and flexibility of construction. He lands in the optimal lineup in simulations 21.2% of the time but is no secret at 20.9% ownership. Adams is very much in play, but he’s not a major ownership miss for the public tonight.

On FanDuel he seems to be under-valued given the upside of the star centers on the slate. If we pivot away from Jokic or Rudy Gobert, Adams is the logical choice. As the only other center getting a full complement of starter’s minutes, Adams projects well and appears in 9.9% of optimal lineups on the blue site. His 18.8% boom score probability on his 28.9 raw point projection and $5,800 salary exceeds the upside potential provided by Gobert, but not of Jokic. There is clear opportunity cost in rostering Adams, but we gain significant leverage on the entire slate when we do. Jokic and Gobert are trending for 86.7% combined ownership at the center position. If there is going to be one unexpected player in a tournament-winning lineup on FanDuel tonight, I think it will be Adams.

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Joe Ingles – Utah Jazz

DraftKings – $5,000 – SG/SF / FanDuel – $4,400 – SF

Keep in mind that we are still hours before tonight’s 9 p.m. lock. Ingles remains extremely questionable for this one with his ongoing Achilles pain. However, in this case questionable is an upgrade. Ingles has missed the team’s last three games and could easily miss tonight as well. He could prove sneaky on both sites if he does play, particularly the closer to lock that we get that news.

Before the injury, Ingles was producing 0.75 fantasy points per minute, slightly down from last year’s 0.79 rate over the small sample to begin the season. Ingles is currently projected for 26 minutes (if he plays at all) in our most recent update, which would land the small forward in 33.8% of FanDuel optimal lineups and 19.4% of optimal lineups in DraftKings NBA contests. With a low-for-him price on both sites, Ingles won’t have to do much to at least return value for your investment, which could be enough on such a short slate. He has some upside to a ceiling score, with a 7.8% boom probability in FanDuel NBA contests but just 2.5% at his higher DraftKings price.

The most appealing aspect of the Ingles play by far is his current 9.9 leverage score on FanDuel, which is also strong at 5.7 on DraftKings. We can expect this to draw toward even if we get early news that Ingles will play, but unless he swings wildly negative, I still like the opportunity at the price. Ideally, we will get Ingles with positive leverage if the public is sleeping on his availability, but with the preponderance of NBA DFS picks information at everyone’s fingertips, there are few secrets these days.

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Denver Nuggets

Most of the public ownership is quite justifiably focused on the two Nuggets stars, along with a couple of their role players. Namely, Jokic, Jamal Murray, Will Barton and JaMychal Green will all be popular. The public will be right to roster each of them, and you should absolutely have those players mixed into a fair share of your GPP lineups.

We’re here to talk about the value that can be uncovered in looking a few seats further down the Denver bench. With a primary rotation of eight players who receive the lion’s share of the minutes, there is some predictable run at reasonable pricing that is currently undervalued on both sites. Veteran forward Paul Millsap is one of the more reliable options in that group. With a 23-minute projection and 0.84 FanDuel points per minute, Millsap won’t need to do much beyond the norm to at least provide value, and he has upside to a ceiling score with his 6.7% boom rate. Millsap provides positive leverage on FanDuel, while appearing in 19.3% of optimal lineups. In DraftKings NBA contests, he looks even better, landing in 24.2% of optimal lineups while still getting rostered less than 20% of the time, for a 4.6 leverage score.

Two of the three remaining players of relevance slot in as either shooting guards or small forwards on DraftKings and at the shooting guard spot on FanDuel. Gary Harris and P.J. Dozier will receive different run tonight. Harris is projected for his standard starter’s run of around 31 minutes, while Dozier comes off the bench for about 22. Both players are in play on FanDuel. Dozier lands in the optimal lineup 11.4% of the time and has a 1.5 leverage score as a quality value play, though he lacks significant upside, with just a 3.0% boom score probability and a 17.7 point raw projection. Harris provides slightly more upside and floor, with a 4.3% boom score probability, though he will be more popular and has a -4.9 leverage score.

On DraftKings Harris is closer to even, with a 17.6% optimal-lineup rate and just a -1.8 leverage score. His ceiling remains low, with just a 2.8% boom score probability and a 19.5-point projection. Dozier provides value at his $3,900 salary, landing him in 23.1% of optimal lineups in DraftKings simulations. With his 8.4 leverage score, Dozier is a very interesting value play despite the low ceiling.

Lastly, backup point guard Monte Morris is not without value. His 25-minute projection and 0.81 fantasy points per minute add up to a player who could provide value at his low price. On FanDuel Morris runs $4,800 and appears in 16.9% of optimal lineups with a 1.1 leverage score, though he also has just a 3.2% boom score probability. On DraftKings the $4,200 salary has Morris in 20% of optimal lineups, with a 3.7% boom score probability and slightly positive leverage. Morris is a bit of a value mix-and-match option, not a home run, but a two-game slate doesn’t necessarily require home runs.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.