Hopefully we all survived our return to the league last night because now we’re into the deep water with nine games for tonight’s NBA DFS picks. We have some key injuries already like Damian Lillard and Kemba Walker as well as Elfrid Payton being ruled out as I wrote this. There’s going to be no rest for the weary coming on tonight’s slate. Go right now and follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to see all my content (including our XFL Strategy Show coming up later today). Let’s get into the slate with the Feb. 21 Switch and Hedge.
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A Day for C.J. McCollum Chalk
Portland faces New Orleans at home in a game with a slate-high 121.8 combined total. C.J. McCollum will lead the team with no Damian Lillard for the next three or four games and he is not priced for this situation. McCollum has a 32.5% usage rate without Lillard as well as a jump from a 16.7% assist rate to 24.9%. He’ll dominate the ball and looks like a top play on the day, worthy of his ownership in this pace-up spot against New Orleans’ 109.5 defensive rating. I also don’t mind Carmelo Anthony even though he’s been a nonfactor lately. Anthony has a 24.8% usage rate without Lillard and Kent Bazemore and that’s likely enough for him to be useful at his price point against New Orleans.
Anfernee Simons should also be a popular value play with his boost in opportunity when Lillard is out. Simons projects to be decent value and he put up 34.75 fantasy points in 28 minutes after Lillard went out last game. But he’s a highly variable player who averages just 0.7 fantasy points per minute on the year, so while he’s worth some exposure, he’s a bit tough to trust at more than the field’s 30% ownership. I’d be less inclined to pay the hefty price for Hassan Whiteside given some other center options, but he’s in the mix and is a fairly secure play with some upside.
Brandon Ingram looks like a strong NBA DFS value in his expected return to the lineup for New Orleans. Portland’s 110.7 defensive rating won’t improve, or will likely get worse, thanks to Lillard’s absence. Ingram has maintained a usage rate around 27% with Zion Williamson in the lineup and I’d rather take a stab at Ingram’s decreased price point than Williamson’s elevated one. Both are in play, though. Lonzo Ball and Jrue Holiday also look well-priced for the matchup but likely with a bit less upside than Williamson or Ingram. Derrick Favors looks like a solid value, but his minutes aren’t the most reliable. It does seem like he should get 25 minutes in a competitive game after he played 21 in a blowout the last time New Orleans played Portland 10 days ago. The margins get narrow if he sees in the 20-ish range.
Can Andre Drummond Actually Stay on the Court at Washington?
Andre Drummond has maintained his 26.5% rebound rate with usage around 33% in his limited court time as a Cavalier, an increase in opportunity from his Detroit stint. But Drummond lost minutes to Tristan Thompson last game after two early fouls and ended up playing just 22 minutes as Thompson went off for 47.25 fantasy points. Drummond looks good again on paper. Despite the quick hook, he had 37.25 fantasy points in his 22 minutes and this spot versus Washington will give him a lot of easy opportunity on the glass and at the rim. The high pace isn’t perfect for him, but I like Drummond a lot, especially if people will own him under 5% as currently expected.
Tristan Thompson lurks as the pivot even though he doesn’t project well. Kevin Love is expected back and he also looks solid at his price point. Collin Sexton and Darius Garland have reasonable prices for a game against Washington’s 106 pace and 113 defensive rating. I wouldn’t even mind Cedi Osman at a discounted rate, though he’ll be a little lost in the sauce with Love and Kevin Porter now back in the lineup.
Bradley Beal looks strongly priced on the other side. Cleveland’s 113.9 defensive rating is even worse than Washington’s, though their low 101.1 pace will result in fewer possessions for the Wizards. Rui Hachimura and Ish Smith have far less bankable roles, but their court time seems mostly secure. It wouldn’t be crazy to see Davis Bertans and his 8.4 3-point attempts per game heat up given the 37.4% shooting Cleveland allows from deep. This game is a little underrepresented in our ownership thus far, but I imagine I’ll have lots of pieces of it in the hopes the game gets loose with its 236 combined total.
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Boston in a Strong Situation
Kemba Walker will be out for Boston’s game at Minnesota and that means big boosts for all the Celtics. Jayson Tatum averages just under 30% usage without Walker while Jaylen Brown gets to 26.8% usage without him. Gordon Hayward sees more possessions overall and a slight boost in usage and assists. Marcus Smart gets a slight jump in usage and assists as well. Given the matchup with Minnesota, who’s playing even faster and poorer defensively since their wave of trade deadline moves, I’d have a lot of Celtics today. I also wouldn’t sleep on Daniel Theis with his minutes up lately. Enes Kanter is a decent value who could theoretically earn more run, but Brad Stevens has favored Theis a lot more lately with over 24 minutes in eight out of his last nine games.
It’s been a limited NBA DFS sample size for Minnesota since their trades but, particularly with Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined, there’s a lot of opportunity for their guys. D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley have both had 32% usage rates without Towns on the court while Russell has had a 44% assist rate. Juan Hernangomez has also seen 21% usage without Towns and they fed him minutes with 38 last game. James Johnson and Hernangzomez are both in play with the run they saw without Towns last time out as Johnson also played 32 minutes. Beasley seems the most mispriced to me for his new role, but I think these guys should all be in consideration even against Boston’s 103.7 defensive rating. This team has more firepower than many may see.
A Slight Boost for Utah With No Mike Conley
Mike Conley will rest one more game after the All-Star break and that will make the Jazz look better in a home game against San Antonio. The Spurs maintain a 110.9 defensive rating and there’s a little bit more to go around for all of these guys with Conley out. Joe Ingles looks like a stronger value play thanks to his 28.5% assist rate when Conley is off the floor. Jordan Clarkson and Royce O’Neale should also see more run with the former much more likely to be productive with it. Clarkson has over 33.5 fantasy points in his last three games and he’s seen upwards of 31 minutes during that stretch. Donovan Mitchell also gains more theoretical opportunity with Conley off, but he’s still as points-dependent as ever. The other guys, particularly Ingles, tend to step up with peripherals more than Mitchell does.
DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge look perfectly fine for San Antonio, but I’m less inclined to get there on a slate of this size. Aldridge went off before the break as DeRozan was sidelined, but he stands to see less opportunity and a tough matchup tonight with Utah.
A Lake Night Hammer in Los Angeles
Memphis heads to Los Angeles for a game with the Lakers after a tough loss at Sacramento yesterday. The Lakers look strong as a result in a game with an 11-point spread that favors them at home. LeBron James and Anthony Davis look like rock-solid pay-up options. JaVale McGee is also passable value with his price down, but it’s hard to project him for even 20 minutes. McGee hasn’t played second quarter stints in his last few games and that caps his upside as the Lakers have gone away from splitting 48 minutes with he and Dwight Howard to get Davis some additional run at center. Maybe the matchup with Memphis gets them a little more.
Jonas Valanciunas, Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton all are fairly priced, but it’s hard to love these guys on a back-to-back against a rugged Lakers defense. Melton exploded for 41.5 fantasy points yesterday and he remains a viable value guy, though Brooks remains more due for positive regression on his really poor shooting lately. Ja Morant also seems like the kind of player who would bring it for a first game against LeBron, but he showed his downside with 20.75 fantasy points last night despite 30 minutes. Morant could be sneaky after that somewhat surprising dud.
Other NBA DFS Notes Around the Slate
- Serge Ibaka remains a solid play with Marc Gasol still out. His price feels low against a Phoenix team who’s struggled to defend centers. Ibaka can get in his bag versus the expected return of DeAndre Ayton. Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet also are completely fairly priced, but it’s less egregious than Ibaka’s. The game overall feels sneaky with the core Raptors, including Pascal Siakam, all underowned despite a spot that should be competitive.
- Elfrid Payton was ruled out as of writing this and one would think this means minutes for Frank Ntilikina and Dennis Smith. Whichever picks up the start is an intriguing value play, but both should get run. Smith averages 0.88 fantasy points per minute on 17% usage and a 33% assist rate with Payton and Marcus Morris off the court and Julius Randle on this season. He’s in play despite the tough spot against Indiana. He’s a highly variant player in per-minute performance – which would make him worth coming under the field on if he gets chalky – but he should see fairly secure court time in the difficult matchup. Smith seems like the likely candidate for a start.
- I don’t mind Luka Doncic today, though his 16% ownership is more than fair. He and Nikola Vucevic look like solid plays in Dallas’ game at Orlando today. The game itself projects for a low pace thanks to both teams playing towards the bottom of the league in possessions. I’d want some exposure to those two and maybe even fringe guys like Evan Fournier in a game that is mostly contrarian on a slate with likely a lot of obvious chalk.
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