Despite just a five-game slate today, there’s a lot to hit on as we consider the slate’s NBA DFS picks. We have a bunch of key teams in back-to-backs and a lot of injury statuses up in the air. We also have guys like Jrue Holiday, Paul George and Kelly Oubre already ruled out. It seemed like a lot of people in the Awesemo community had massive GPP finishes yesterday so let’s do our best to keep it rolling today in the Jan. 16 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge.
Be sure to check out EMac’s Cash Building Blocks for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.
Also, watch today’s NBA Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Adam Scherer.
Can The Knicks Hold Up Their Half Of A Key NBA DFS Game?
Phoenix heads to Madison Square Garden for a battle with the Knicks with a slate-high 226-point combined total. Phoenix will be without the concussed Kelly Oubre but they’re a three-point favorite in this road game. Devin Booker is the first place to look. He has been a monster in six out of his last nine games with over 50 fantasy points. But his price is up and he’s shown a 31.5-fantasy-point floor in that stretch so his current 14% projected ownership at his elevated DraftKings salary makes sense. His FanDuel salary looks better but I’ll still have more than the field on DraftKings. Booker has 32% usage when on the floor without Oubre and I’d think that’s enough to get him going against an iffy Knicks defense with a 111.5 defensive rating.
I don’t hate the idea of a pivot to Ricky Rubio or including him with Booker on DraftKings. Rubio averages 1.2 fantasy points per minute without Oubre while sharing the court with Booker and his price is reasonable after he missed last game due to the birth of his child. Mikal Bridges will also pick up the start without Oubre. He’s likely to pop for a lot of people with the minutes he’ll get in a start after he had 34.75 fantasy points in 33 minutes last game versus Atlanta. I may be inclined to go to a cheaper Dario Saric who could take usage and minutes away from Bridges in the same groups. Bridges projects well but, by now, we know how it goes when a low usage player moves into a starting lineup.
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I wouldn’t sleep on DeAndre Ayton here. He saw 33 minutes off the bench yesterday and it seems like he could take advantage of Mitchell Robinson in the second unit. Oubre leaves behind 14.2 shot attempts per game and Ayton can easily soak up some of those looks and rebound opportunities.
Elfrid Payton looks like a solid value on the Knicks’ side I have no issue with. Julius Randle’s price is up but he’s likely a key part of this game having that fantasy upside. He’ll lose some opportunity if Marcus Morris makes it back into the lineup with over 20 shots in the two games that Morris has sat following Randle’s personal absences. If Morris is back in, it could be logical to go his way at far less ownership. If he’s out, Randle should have open runway to excel, as should R.J. Barrett who’s had 33.25, 38.25 and 41.5 fantasy points in his last three games. Morris back in the lineup could appreciably hurt his prospects but I’d love him if Morris is out.
Lastly, Mitchell Robinson is an interesting play off the bench. His price is cheap and he’s been down lately as he hasn’t seen over 22 minutes in his last four games. He could theoretically earn more minutes and the upside is there if his toe injury isn’t a contributing factor to this swoon.
Utah Gets The New Orleans Pace-Up
Donovan Mitchell will be a chalky play industrywide but he’s been down lately with six out of his last seven games at 36 FP or less. His swoon has also come with hot play from Joe Ingles and Rudy Gobert. Mitchell is cheap, it makes sense to go his way over those guys. But Ingles has 42 and 41.25 fantasy points in his last two games, Gobert has over 47 fantasy points in his last four. If you were to fade Mitchell, I’d seriously consider a move to those two despite their rising salaries. Jordan Clarkson also looks like a decent play with a price most people won’t land on. He’s had over 31% usage in some games off the bench and has been able to earn more minutes when hot. He’s a lower priority than the other Jazz but he’s a low-owned dart throw with tournament upside.
Jrue Holiday is out, Derrick Favors will play and Brandon Ingram is a game-time decision on the other side. Ingram intrigues me if he’s in given that he just had 56.5 fantasy points versus Utah without Holiday a little over a week ago. If Ingram is out, I don’t hate a return to Nicolo Melli but he was a much more appealing play to me at a minimum price. He’d likely see some clean looks from deep if Ingram is out. Favors also looks like passable value even though the matchup is obviously a gross one. It may be more logical to assume that Favors will attempt to mitigate Gobert and we will see Josh Hart get additional rebound upside as well as a more looks with Utah’s tough defense likely to key in elsewhere.
Lonzo Ball is a tough question to answer with his price up. I’m not opposed to him after he had 43 fantasy points in that same game against Utah 10 days ago. He may be more logical to try if Ingram is out. Ball had 23 shot attempts in 46 minutes, including overtime, without Ingram last game. New Orleans will need him infinitely more if Ingram misses.
It Seems Like Today Will Be The Monte Morris Day
Everyone that wanted Monte Morris NBA DFS chalk day yesterday with Jamal Murray questionable will likely get that chance today after Murray was helped off the court and missed the second half. The bad news is Morris is priced up for the opportunity on DraftKings, though not on FanDuel. But his weak second half yesterday starting for Murray may throw people off the scent. Morris had just 13.25 fantasy points in 24 minutes yesterday against Charlotte, a team who defends point guards well this year. Golden State is the exact inverse so I would definitely go Morris’s way some as a starter today.
Morris’s splits on the court with Nikola Jokic with Murray off are terrifying as he averages just 0.62 fantasy points per minute with an 18% assist rate, a stiff drop off from his usual 27%. If his ownership stays reasonable, I’d be more inclined to go his way than not but there are some risks on paper. If he fails, it’s likely because Will Barton dominates the ball as he averages 1.3 fantasy points per minute in the same situation with Morris and Jokic on while Murray is off.
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Michael Porter Jr. will also be a tempting play again if Gary Harris remains out. Porter went for 37.5 fantasy points off the bench yesterday with a monster 17 real-life points in the first half. The defense here will be comparably effortless with Golden State’s 109.2 defensive rating. He can do it again but, with the depth on Denver, there are ways the game can flow away from him. Malik Beasley could seize backup point guard minutes and he’s a productive player when given run. He’s a near minimum-priced guy I would consider as a pivot.
Golden State’s prices also make me somewhat intrigued by some of their guys despite the low-paced matchup against a decent Denver defense. D’Angelo Russell stunk last time out with 25.75 fantasy points as Golden State was blown out by Dallas but he still had 33% usage in 34 minutes. He can certainly do some work against a weakened Denver squad, especially if Harris is out. Damion Lee returns to the team after they did some contract juggling and I don’t mind him with his price down. Alec Burks projects slightly better but Lee flows a little better for me with Russell. Draymond Green is tougher to pin down but his price seems decent. He’s not a priority for me but I could see taking a stab in lineups that assume Golden State keeps this one competitive.
Injury Affected NBA DFS Spots
Boston heads to Milwaukee with the statuses of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown up in the air on a back-to-back. It’s hard to get a read on the team without knowing if these guys are in. Kemba Walker will be an intriguing target after he bombed as chalk yesterday with 7-for-19 shooting including a delightful 2-for-11 from deep. He needs to do more as a scorer and assist man to keep Boston in this one. A diminished Celtics roster offers big opportunity if they can rally from getting blown out at home by Detroit yesterday. I’d be willing to play any of these core guys in lineups that assume they keep it close.
Marcus Smart in particular is a guy I wouldn’t sleep on today. He fits the profile of the kind of shooter Milwaukee will give wide open looks to and Smart is unashamed to jack up threes. He could be one way they hang in this game or he could shoot 2-for-12 from deep, the Smart experience in a nutshell.
Giannis Antetokounmpo obviously would benefit if Boston keeps this close. I wouldn’t call him an NBA DFS priority but the field’s over 20% expected ownership indicates you probably should have some exposure. The rest of the team I could give or take with Eric Bledsoe the only guy who jumps out as passable value.
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The Clippers will be without Paul George so Kawhi Leonard will have an open runway to excel again at his elevated price. He had 61.25 fantasy points in 29 minutes against Cleveland and he continues to average 1.6 fantasy points per game without George in the lineup. It could be a day to go Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell’s way with their prices down relative to Leonard’s on the way up. Ivica Zubac also seems like he could see extended minutes thanks to Nikola Vucevic on the other side but his price is up to a tough level. It’s not a perfect matchup either way against a decent Orlando defense that plays with low pace.
Orlando also will need to update us on Evan Fournier and D.J. Augustin’s statuses. Markelle Fultz went nuts with 55.75 fantasy points on 9-for-19 shooting in Orlando’s surprise win over the Lakers last night with both out. He’s priced well again but he’d be a much more intriguing play if both guys were out. Terrence Ross also works at a much higher price, as does Aaron Gordon. A Vucevic bounce back might be the most appealing option after he had 30 fantasy points in 32 minutes yesterday. He’s a bit less likely to fall prey to the Los Angeles back-to-back trap with nightlife after he went to school out here and the Clippers bigs aren’t skilled enough to keep up with him.
