NBA DFS Picks: 8/3/20 Switch & Hedge

The NBA’s version of March Madness soldiers on after a weekend full of entertaining matchups from real-life and NBA DFS perspectives. We’ve hopefully started to get a read on some of the more injury/opt-out affected lineups for these seeding games, and we’ve likely all been burned by Jakob Poeltl more than enough already. Let’s waste no time and get to today’s NBA DFS Switch and Hedge.

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Mount Warren Explodes

T.J. Warren went off for a 53-point game against the respected Philadelphia defense in his NBA bubble debut. Victor Oladipo is expected to rest today, Domantas Sabonis will remain out, and Malcolm Brogdon is questionable. I like Brogdon quite a bit if he makes it in, as he should see big boosts in usage and assists, with some concern he may not see a full allotment of minutes. But I don’t hate a price chase on Warren with his salary on the rise. He had a 32% usage rate in his monster scoring game, and while 20-for-29 shooting with nine 3’s is unlikely to happen again, he’ll get all the looks he wants. He’d lose a bit of appeal for me if Brogdon is in, but Warren’s low 11% projected ownership seems worth additional attention. He has a 28% usage rate on the year with Oladipo, Sabonis and Jeremy Lamb out.

I’m also hopeful for a better day from Myles Turner against Washington’s weak interior. He found immediate foul trouble against Joel Embiid in his bubble debut and never really recovered. This matchup is a lot more beneficial for him, though he projects for a ton of ownership. I’d also be more willing to go to Aaron Holiday and T.J. McConnell if Brogdon misses the game. Holiday or McConnell become barely there GPP plays for me if Brogdon is in.

On Washington’s side, Thomas Bryant looks perfectly fine, though he should be highly owned after a near-60-fantasy-point day yesterday versus Brooklyn. I’m not quite sold on Troy Brown after a near-triple double effort in that same game. His 38 minutes played were encouraging, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his ownership soar as we get closer to lock. If he remains reasonably owned, it seems smart to be with the field. But I’m a little more leery of Brown at high ownership with a rising price. Ish Smith is a little cheaper and has over 31 fantasy points in his two bubble games. Shabazz Napier may also be a more direct pivot as a GPP play at a higher price with two brutal games thus far.

Memphis Versus New Orleans in a Crucial Game

New Orleans has yet to win in the bubble, and they could really stand to get on the board versus an equally winless Grizzlies squad. Ja Morant projects to be a top-owned play on the day, and he’s had over 47 fantasy points in his last two games. He’s seen over 37 minutes in both games and, while the back-to-back for Memphis poses some risk, it does seem like Ja is playing do-or-die playoff minutes currently. Jaren Jackson has been similarly consistent, though he’s no longer an easy value play like he has been in the first two Memphis games. It seems likely that Jackson and Brandon Clarke see more run in this game with Jonas Valanciunas not likely to be the best matchup for the Pelicans’ pace. Dillon Brooks should continue to see looks and brick them more often than not. He put up 20 shots against the Spurs and could find enough open looks at pace to spike some kind of upside worth the 10% ownership projected for him.

With Zion Williamson still minutes-limited, Brandon Ingram looks good to me again. The Pelicans all had a tough game last time out versus the Clippers, but Ingram needs to get back on track here for his team to have a shot. Ingram looks appropriately owned but would be my preferred play. Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball have some contrarian value, but I can’t see having a lot. You could probably talk me into Derrick Favors more with a reasonable price and him likely needed out there to match all of Valanciunas’ minutes.

Jakob Poeltl’s Wild Ride

Poeltl has looked like a strong play and good value in his last two games, and he’s completely let his backers down with foul trouble the big issue last time out. Embiid will cause foul issues for Poeltl, but if he can stay on the court, he still has a chance to see big minutes and exceed value. I’ll be above the field on him in the hopes he finds redemption. DeMar DeRozan’s usage has fallen off of a cliff in the restart with his shift to a pseudo-power forward role. He’s yet to top 24% usage in the two games San Antonio’s played. At this point, I’d be more willing to go to Dejounte Murray at a far more reasonable price. Derrick White also has some appeal, though it seemed like Patty Mills’ return took away just enough usage from White in his return to the lineup to narrow White’s margins.

Joel Embiid should feast against San Antonio after he hung 81 fantasy points on Indiana in his first bubble game. Conditioning wasn’t an issue for Embiid as he played 34 minutes. Embiid will be highly owned at his price – and that could make Ben Simmons a more appealing option – but both he and Simmons look like solid plays to at least match the field on. I don’t see getting to Tobias Harris or Shake Milton at their elevated price points, though Harris’ 31.5% usage rate against Indiana with Simmons’ new power forward role was interesting to note. Harris could be worth a tournament sprinkle on the chance things have changed for the better for him.

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Denver Remains Banged Up

Denver will continue to be without Will Barton and Gary Harris while Jamal Murray remains questionable. This was a suboptimal situation last time even with Monte Morris’ value price as he and a chalk, minimum-priced Michael Porter Jr. drove down the upside of the slate’s scoring. I’m not in love with any of these guys, though there is some value in going to Porter after his high-profile bust, but I’m definitely least inclined to point chase Torrey Craig’s game that was largely driven by him assisting at a much higher rate than usual. Nikola Jokic seems like the only safe Nuggets player, and he’s going to be very highly owned. I also wouldn’t mind a stab on Jerami Grant, a guy who came out gunning in the second unit with a near-30% usage rate.

Danilo Gallinari looks chalky at a reasonable price. His issue is always the lack of a meaningful ceiling for tournaments, but he seems like a building block for cash games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks like a strong value, but he’ll be a top-owned play on the slate. That could be a reason to go to a more expensive but much-less-owned Chris Paul. Steven Adams also looks good at center after a strong bubble debut against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz, and he tends to go under-owned. Adams has notched 40.75 and 56.75 fantasy points versus Denver in two matchups this year.

Around the Rest of the NBA DFS Slate

-Toronto and Miami face off in a game that’s on FanDuel’s main slate but not DraftKings’. I’ll be focused on the latter today, but there can be some value in rostering stars from this game on FanDuel with it likely to be more overlooked as part of people’s preparation processes. No one in the game looks like a stellar value according to Awesemo’s projections, but tournament exposure to Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler seems logical, while I’d be more inclined towards a cheap Pascal Siakam than a somewhat overpriced Kyle Lowry for Toronto.

-The Lakers/Jazz game looks like the least appealing one on the slate to me, and there isn’t much of an ownership discount for it. That said, I could see wanting some of the core players here with the Jazz looking like one of the worst bubble teams thus far. Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Gobert are all plays that could bounce back meaningfully despite the tough and lowly paced matchup. The same applies for LeBron James and Anthony Davis, two guys whose prices have not fallen enough for the matchup on paper but could find more upside if the game is competitive. I also wouldn’t sleep on the Dion Waiters value with him putting up 10 shots per game thus far at near-minimum prices industrywide.

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Author

Chris Spags

Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].