NBA DFS Picks: The NBA Slate Starter for DraftKings + FanDuel

There’s nothing I love more than talking hoops with you all in this space. And as luck would have it, I’ll now be bringing some special Showdown editions of the Slate Starter to you throughout these playoffs. We’ve got a massive Game 1 between the Lakers – Nuggets on tap for today, so let’s try to build that bankroll for the NFL on Sunday!

The Anatomy of Showdown Strategy

Before we get to the breakdown of today’s game, I want to discuss a few of the major differences between Showdown lineups and standard NBA lineups. This might be elementary to those of you with lots of single-game contest experience, but I’m sure there’s more than a few of you who have never dabbled with this game-type before. I also enjoy teaching people how to not suck at DFS, so here it goes:

Fewer Options — You are limited to picking players from one game and that one game alone. There will still be studs to pay up for and value pieces to make them fit like we do in our standard NBA DFS lineups, but there’s only so many pivots or practical plays to make. This means even more overlap than normal on chalky lineups.
Roster Construction — We’re looking to pick six players on DraftKings and five on FanDuel. There’s nuances to the game play and subsequent strategy for each site; I’ll do my best to help you understand them as we go.
‘Captains’ — I will be referencing the ‘Captain’ spot on DraftKings ad nauseam in this article, so be prepared. The CPT spot gives you 1.5x the fantasy points from whichever player you play there, but also makes you put forward 1.5x that player’s salary. For example, Anthony Davis is $10,800 today; if you play him in your Captain spot, he’s actually going to cost you $16,200. The $50,000 salary cap remains unchanged, so if you’re utilizing him as a Captain, it will be substantially more difficult to fit other studs into the flex positions.
‘MVP’s’ — On FanDuel, three of the five roster spots have multipliers: MVP (2x), All-Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). The salaries do not fluctuate like they do on DraftKings for the Captain slot, so it’s almost impossible to get away from playing studs in the MVP and All-Star positions. The Pro position can be a place of leverage by playing high-upside plays with lower salaries (i.e. Rajon Rondo, Michael Porter Jr.), hoping to spike an upside that can overtake more expensive options that might be higher-owned.
Leverage Leverage Leverage — The most important aspect to my Showdown strategy is leveraging ownership. If Davis were to go off for 80 in Game 1, he will probably become the most popular Captain play in Game 2. I can’t talk in absolutes, but if that happened I’m 99.9% sure I’d pivot to more LeBron James Game 2. In other words, let recency bias be your friend in Showdown.

The Rondo Effect

The big news for today revolves around one Rajon Rondo, who was obnoxiously-good for the Lakers in their previous series against the Rockets. He’s currently listed as questionable with back spasms, and looks to be a true game-time decision for tonight.

On a regular DFS slate, the result of Rondo being ruled out would be an easy Alex Caruso plug-and-play. But with only one game to pick players from, Caruso’s ownership will go up at an exponentially-higher rate than normal. Of course he becomes a better play, but exactly how much better of a play? Considering the ownership would probably get pulled from the likes of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris on DraftKings, or Danny Green on FanDuel, I’d argue his teammates become the better tournament plays.

The other major benefit of this news would be the viability of leaving lots of salary on the table. I think we should already be aiming to do that in our tournament lineups regardless of injuries, as the amount of overlap from zeroed-out salary caps is staggering on these slates. But the absence of Rondo’s 36.6% assist rate and near 20% usage creates a greater probability for a few cheap Lakers to spike an upside. Pair a few cheap Lakers with the studs in this game, and I’d argue your upside is just as high without zeroing out your salary with the likes of the more expensive Paul Millsap‘s and Michael Porter Jr.‘s of the world.

My Favorite Nugget Not Named Jokic or Murray

Oh, you came here for picks? You want an actual pick? It’s gross, but very well: my third favorite play on the Nuggets tonight is none other than Mason Plumlee.

Unlike regular DFS lineups, we have the ability to pure-punt a position where even a single-digit scoring performance can work its way into the optimal lineup. I was toying with builds all morning, and I’ve found some stud-filled builds that require major salary savings. And as far as I can tell, Plumlee at $1,800 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel is the cheapest play projected to play any minutes whatsoever.

He’s not exactly bad when he sees court-time either, posting over a fantasy point-per-minute for his career. At 10 minutes per game in these playoffs, there’s an upside there that could allow you to jam in nearly every high-priced player from Game 1. Obviously, I do not expect him to be third on the Nuggets in raw points, although that title could go to any number of his teammates. But the salary and presumed low-ownership makes him a play you could need if two or more studs go for 60+ fantasy points.

Final Thoughts for Your NBA Showdown Lineups

I think my top piece of Showdown advice can be broken down into just two words: be different. I didn’t say ‘be stupid,’ so don’t go chasing a Talen Horton-Tucker breakout game with your hard-earned money. But find ways to be different, be it through a lower-owned Captain play or leaving $1,000+ in salary on the table. So while the winning lineup is often times split multiple ways, let’s keep our lineups as unique as possible.

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Author

Eric Lindquist

Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.