NBA DFS Picks: The NBA Slate Starter for DraftKings + FanDuel

Welcome to the first-ever weekend edition of the NBA Slate Starter! Today also happens to be my birthday, so get me a gift by taking down one of these massive tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel, okay? Let’s get to celebrating/work breaking down this crucial Game 3 between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics, tipping off at 8:30 p.m. EST.

Gordon Haymaker

Game 3 looms large for the Green and Gold, as the Heat look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead on the path to the NBA Finals. Game 1 was a hard-fought OT thriller, Game 2 was death by third-quarter submission, so I’m very curious how the Celtics respond today after some gut-wrenching losses. Hearing reports of ‘thrown objects‘ and ‘raucous screaming’ in the locker room after Thursday’s game probably isn’t a good start, but I digress.

The big news of the day revolves around one Gordon Hayward, who was upgraded to questionable and will almost certainly give it a go for his team in this must-win spot. He hasn’t seen the court since Game 1 of the Celtics’ opening series against the Pacers, where he went 34 minutes without any visible strain. It wasn’t until after the fact he was diagnosed with the ankle issue that forced him to leave the bubble for treatment.

Obviously, I wouldn’t expect near that compliment of minutes for him here in Game 3 (something in the 18-20 range seems more feasible). But his presence, while providing a lift for this ailing Boston squad in real life, certainly dents the fantasy production of his teammates. Those minutes have to come from somewhere, plus he sported a 21.1% usage rate during the regular season, so he’s not exactly inactive when he’s out on the court.

So what’s the game plan for today? First off, I’ll strip away 2-3 minutes minimum from each Celtics starter not-named-Jayson Tatum, and in upwards of 8 minutes off of Brad Wanamaker, who should see his minutes cut the most with Hayward’s presence. This will drop every Celtics’ projection substantially enough to make Heat players my preferred targets in 4-2 builds on DraftKings and 3-2 builds on FanDuel. If the Boston prices had been dropped in preparation for Hayward’s return, we wouldn’t have this issue, but now they’re overpriced compared to Miami who have no injury news to account for.

Go With the Game Flow

NBA Showdown has some nifty little nuances to it, my favorite of which is building a game scripts. For instance, Michael Porter Jr. was the one and only Nugget that appeared in the winning lineups from yesterday’s game. Part of that had to do with softer pricing on the Lakers value, but a larger portion of it had to do with correctly predicting what would happen if LA were to blowout Denver. By not playing Nikola Jokic or Jamal Murray as your single Nuggets player, your lineup tells a story about what you see happening.

Which brings me to today: I personally see a tight game where there are multiple viable plays on both sides, and ownership will drive a lot of the decisions I make on who to ride with the most. That means that on DraftKings, I’m probably leaning exclusively towards 3-3 and 4-2 builds, which will undoubtably be the most popular types. But 5-1 builds (like we saw yesterday) will tend to be far more unique in most cases, because you’re building for an outlier outcome that might make others uncomfortable. And if that one-off player is going to see the court regardless (like in Porter Jr.’s case), it’s very possible for that lineup to cash even in a close game.

My advice? Theorize what would happen in extreme game flows. What does the winning lineup look like in a Heat or Celtics blowout? A lot of these outlier outcomes tend to be 5-1 builds on DraftKings or 4-1 on FanDuel and feel ‘too risky’ for the average player. So if you want to avoid overlapping with hundreds of lineups and give yourself a clear path at six-figures, building for a specific narratives like this is one of the best ways to do it.

Final Thoughts for Your NBA Showdown Lineups

I feel like a broken record, but will be all over Kemba Walker again today. The Heat went to a zone in the third quarter of Game 2 that made Kemba look inept, but that didn’t stop him from having the most raw fantasy points on his team. And out of any of the starters, Kemba’s minutes and usage should be impacted the least by Hayward’s return. That being said, Jayson Tatum is still my favorite Celtic to play from a raw fantasy points standpoint. Should the Celtics come back and win this series, he’ll be the major reason why.

Also, and I cannot emphasize this enough: check out the Live Before Lock show on the Awesemo YouTube channel because Josh Engleman and Rayen Patnaik are bringing the fire right now. They were spot-on with their Dwight Howard play from last night, so getting their takes on the Enes Kanters of the world could be crucial to tonight’s success. Plus they’re cool dudes to hang out with on a Saturday night, so be sure to tune in.

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page, just click HERE.

Author

Eric Lindquist

Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.