NBA DFS Picks: The NBA Slate Starter for DraftKings + FanDuel

When it comes to NBA DFS, sometimes you get it right and sometimes you get it wrong. And sometimes you get it really wrong when the Raptors decide to take the night off and nuke your lineups after the first quarter. At least it can’t possibly get any worse, right? Don’t answer that.

It’s thankfully a new day, so let’s get to it. This is today’s NBA Slate Starter for Tuesday’s two-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

My Big Fat Greek Funeral

Giannis Antetokounmpo re-aggravated his sprained ankle in Game 4, and now we’re looking at possibly the craziest slate of the playoffs to date. I’m no doctor, but those back-to-back injuries and his subsequent hobbling around after the game have me leaning on Giannis being out. I think Vegas agrees with me, opening this game at Miami -2.5 in a series they were routinely favoring the Bucks around -5.

During the past few regular seasons, the impulse has been to go right to Ersan Ilyasova for salary relief when Giannis sits. He’s played exactly zero minutes in this series, so I think we’re going to pass on that for tomorrow. Another thought was to possibly lock-in back-up power forward Marvin Williams, but even with Giannis’ second quarter injury, Williams played fewer minutes than any other game in the series (17).

Surprisingly enough, Mike Budenholzer might have made an actual good coaching decision Sunday. Looking over PopcornMachine.net, the Bucks went small with Donte DiVincenzo and George Hill to pair alongside Eric Bledsoe. This allowed for better ball movement on the offensive end, where the whole goal was to funnel everything through Khris Middleton and let him do work. Unless we get some funky starting lineup, those are the only two value pieces I have any interest in from the Milwaukee side for my DFS lineups.

Speaking of Middleton and Bledsoe, the public (and myself) will be all over them if this injury news comes to fruition. With Giannis off the court this year, both sport usage rates north of 30% and average right around 1.35 fantasy points per minute. In case you didn’t know, those are very good, and you want those kinds of things in your life. Brook Lopez would be the only other Buck in my player pool from this one, although you’ll need him to keep making everything from 3 at a non-zero price tag for that to pay off.

The Heat side of the ball actually has some injury news, too; Jae Crowder, Tyler Herro and Kelly Olynyk are all listed questionable for today. While not in the realm of importance compared to Giannis, they’re all more than relevant for us today. Crowder and Herro have been excellent sources of mid-range value in this series, so their absences would certainly be missed. However, it would open some extra minutes and usage for the likes of Duncan Robinson, Derrick Jones Jr. and Andre Iguodala. I hate playing shot-depended wings who aren’t free, but Robinson would no doubt be my favorite of the three in the event one or either sits.

Since this is the first game of the day, we should have all of this injury Bucks/Heat news before lock and can build lineups accordingly. Make sure you tune in to the Live Before Lock show on Awesemo’s YouTube channel to equip yourself with the best news and notes possible.

FanDuel Believes in Playoff Rondo

If you’ve played on FanDuel for any length of time, you know they can be more than frustrating when it comes to actively adjusting their pricing. For example, Middleton saw a negligible price increase to $8,000 despite an exceptional Game 4 and a good chance Giannis will sit. In other words, this site is slow to move the needle on what should be obviously needed changes to specific players’ salaries.

… Which brings me to today. I almost spit out my coffee when I saw Rajon Rondo‘s $6,200 price tag this morning. I honestly can’t remember seeing anything like it. That’s a full $1,000 more than Bledsoe, only $1,000 less than Goran Dragic and $2,500 more than he was making his bubble debut two games ago. I was resistant to pay his $4,700 salary on Sunday, which I lived to regret when he easily hung up a 40-spot. And now he’s in the $6,000 range? I’m telling you, this is unprecedented stuff.

With all that being said, I love it. On DraftKings, Rondo is only $3,900 and will certainly be infinity percent owned, which makes the slate substantially less enjoyable for me because everyone can just lock him in. But by FanDuel boosting his salary as aggressively as they did, Rondo isn’t nearly the layup you’d expect him to be over there. I’ve never been more curious of where ownership was projected on a certain player in my life — it could be anywhere from 5% of 55% and I wouldn’t be shocked.

While I’m sure this is the exception rather than the rule, this one change in price makes a huge difference to the quality of the slate. But here’s to hoping their semi-sharp pricing continues.

A Smattering of Final Thoughts for Your NBA DFS Lineups

This feels like opposite day, but FanDuel did another great thing and moved Anthony Davis from power forward to center since Dwight Howard did not play on Sunday. With JaVale McGee questionable with an ankle sprain, Davis becomes a priority for me over there, as he’ll might see a few more minutes and a few more rebounds in his absence.

On the Rockets side, I am so sick and tired of figuring out Russell Westbrook‘s deal, yet here we go again. He’s down to $8,400 on DraftKings, making it easy to play him/Middleton/Davis or LeBron James if you want to. Depending on the Bucks/Heat value, I’m going to be more inclined to pay up for James Harden and his ceiling and bypass Westbrook altogether. Plus the recency bias bug should have bit him by now, and considering he won’t shoot only 12 shots in a game again for the rest of his days, I’m happy to land there.

And just to reiterate it one more time, this slate revolves around the Giannis news. If he’s in, I’m still going to have interest in his supporting cast, as I can’t imagine he’ll be a full-go. If he’s out, fire up Middleton and Bledsoe with reckless abandon.

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Author

Eric Lindquist

Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.