NBA SuperDraft Lineup Picks: Saturday's Best Value & Contrarian Plays

Tonight offers an exciting eight-game slate at SuperDraft, and I’m here to provide some lineup advice for those playing in their NBA DFS tournaments.

If you haven’t heard of SuperDraft, it’s an innovative new way to play DFS. Instead of using a salary cap, players receive multipliers that inversely correspond to their value. For example, Stephen Curry will come with a lower multiplier because he should play most of the game. In comparison, a rotational player like Danuel House will receive a higher multiplier to compensate for his limited minutes.

And for a position-based breakdown of tonight’s slate, feel free to check out our SuperDraft NBA Picks Cheat Sheet for today.

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Top Five Low-Multiplier Plays

Using Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals, here are the top-five high-value players for your NBA SuperDraft lineup. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or below 1.35x.

James Harden (1.2x)

As you may have expected, the Nets and Sixers are projected to combine for the most points on tonight’s slate. With the OddsShopper total set at 237.5, it’s safe to expect a boatload of points, and you’ll get Harden at a higher multiplier than usual after his down performance last night. As long as he doesn’t rest on the wrong side of this back-to-back, he should be a good anchor for your SuperDraft lineup.

Luka Doncic (1.05x)

Our model absolutely loves Doncic tonight. He may have the second-lowest multiplier, but he is also projected for the fifth-most fantasy points. The Warriors and Mavericks are projected to combine for the second-most points at OddsShopper, as the total currently sits at 231.5. The Mavericks may play at a slow average pace, but they logged 105.4 possessions in their first game against Golden State; that would be good for the sixth-fastest pace on the season. He’s the anchor for our SuperDraft Picks Cheat Sheet as well!

Stephen Curry (1.25x)

As mentioned above, the Warriors and Mavericks should score a boatload of points in a fast-paced game. Curry posted 28 points, six assists, and three rebounds against the Mavericks on Thursday in only 30 minutes. If Dallas can keep this game closer than the last one, you can expect Curry to play some extra minutes, too.

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Joel Embiid (1.15x)

The Nets are terrible on defense. They give up the fourth-most points per game to centers, so you can expect Embiid to have a big game tonight, especially since these teams are projected to combine for the slate’s highest score.

Trae Young (1.3x)

Our projections also love the Hawks and Raptors tonight, although much less so than the four teams above. Young has a higher multiplier than usual tonight, too, which should help him be an effective contributor this evening.

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Top Five High-Multiplier Plays

I’ll also use Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals to identify the top-five low-value players for tonight’s slate. Only players with multipliers at or above 1.65x will qualify.

Demarcus Cousins (1.75x)

With Christian Wood sidelined for the foreseeable future, Cousins will have to carry the load at center for the Rockets. In the three-game stretch that Wood missed earlier in the year, Cousins averaged 17.3 points, 14.3 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. He played 32 minutes per game, too, and getting that workload at this multiplier makes him a lock.

Hamidou Diallo (1.75x)

I featured three Oklahoma City players in yesterday’s article, and wow, they did not disappoint. Diallo played 37 minutes, and he posted 16 points and ten assists. While there’s a chance that the Thunder could get Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Luguentz Dort back before tonight’s game, Diallo should be one of the safer plays from Oklahoma City, and his multiplier is still quite low.

Al Horford (1.65x)

Horford was a slate-winner last night. He posted 26 points, eight assists and seven boards over just 29 minutes. It’s important to note his usage, as the 34-year-old would be a candidate for rest if he’d gotten more run. While there’s a chance that he gets rested anyway, as the Thunder chose to bench him after he played only 29 minutes in the front half of a back-to-back earlier in the year, their depleted roster should force them to start Horford anyway.

Jakob Poeltl (1.8x)

Gregg Popovich has said that the Spurs won’t have LaMarcus Aldridge for “a while.” That leaves Poeltl to fill in for him at center. He played 34 minutes in the first game that Aldridge missed, and he posted 19 points and eight rebounds. If you want to pivot away from Cousins, Poeltl makes a fantastic alternative.

Norman Powell (1.8x)

As I mentioned before, our model is somewhat bullish on Raptors and Hawks tonight, so Powell makes a decent option at this multiplier. He hasn’t scored fewer than 18 points over his last six starts for the Raptors.

Five SuperDraft Fades

Which players do our SuperDraft Projections dislike? Here are some players that you should avoid when building your NBA SuperDraft lineup.

Jarrett Allen (1.55x)

Our site projections expect Allen to score the fewest points for players with sub-1.6x multipliers. That’s probably because he’s stuck behind Andre Drummond on the depth chart. He’s not someone to target at SuperDraft until they adjust his multiplier to compensate for his limited minutes.

Bobby Portis (1.6x)

Portis has done some excellent work off Milwaukee’s bench, but he won’t do the kind of damage necessary to justify this multiplier against the Cavaliers. They rank bottom-eight in pace, which will limit Portis’ scoring opportunities, especially because he only played in 23 minutes against them last night.

Derrick Rose (1.65x)

Rose hasn’t started a game this season, and he averages fewer than 23 minutes per game. That number drops to just 19 over his last four games. I have to assume that name recognition, not on-court production, is to blame for Rose’s high multiplier.

Jrue Holiday (1.4x)

I’ll wrap up this list with two Bucks players to avoid. Holiday played less than 30 minutes against the Cavs last night; the Bucks didn’t really need their star players to seal the win. Cleveland’s slow pace of play means that Milwaukee won’t post as many points as they would do otherwise, so I would avoid them at their current multipliers.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)

Yep, that’s right, Giannis won’t generate any extra points for your NBA SuperDraft lineup tonight. While he was quite effective against the Cavs last night, as he posted 33 points, 12 rebounds and four blocks, our projections have him below the likes of Justin Jackson and Keldon Johnson.

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.