NBA SuperDraft Lineup Picks & Strategy: Tuesday's Best Values & Fades

We have an interesting six-game slate at SuperDraft tonight, and if you’re looking to build a strong lineup, I’m here to break down Awesemo’s projections to help you have a profitable evening and provide your NBA SuperDraft lineup strategy.

If you haven’t heard of SuperDraft, it’s an innovative new way to play DFS. Instead of using a salary cap, players receive multipliers that inversely correspond to their value. For example, Stephen Curry will come with a lower multiplier because he should play most of the game. In comparison, a rotational player like Danuel House will receive a higher multiplier to compensate for his limited minutes.

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NBA SuperDraft Lineup Advice & Strategy | Feb. 9

Top Five Low-Multiplier Plays

Using Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals, here are the top-five high-value players for your NBA SuperDraft lineup. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or below 1.35x.

Damian Lillard (1.15x)

Our projections love Lillard tonight. Even though he isn’t playing in one of the slate’s highest-scoring games, Lillard has had to carry this offense with C.J. McCollum sidelined, and this multiplier seems a bit low for a player of his caliber. Only one player is projected to finish with more points than him.

Nikola Vucevic (1.1x)

Vucevic is the first of several centers that our projections love. He’ll take on Lillard and the Trail Blazers tonight, and it’s easy to favor him since the Blazers don’t have Jusuf Nurkic. Enes Kanter won’t be able to stop Vucevic from feasting off the glass.

Joel Embiid (1.05x)

SuperDraft actually gives Embiid eligibility at both forward and center, so you won’t have to make the tough decision between him, Vucevic and two of the high-multiplier plays that I’ll get to later. I love Embiid tonight because the 76ers and Kings are projected for the slate’s highest total (230.5), per OddsShopper. Embiid hasn’t scored fewer than 30 points since a low-scoring game against the Lakers in late January.

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De’Aaron Fox (1.25x)

Like Embiid, Fox should also post strong numbers in the high-scoring matchup. His 1.25x multiplier gives him some extra pop too, so he should be another reliable option at guard behind Lillard.

DeMar DeRozan (1.2x)

With LaMarcus Aldridge sidelined, DeRozan has had to step up for the Spurs. He has averaged 27 points and 7.3 rebounds per game over his last three, which the Spurs also played without Aldridge, and he should remain a reliable weapon tonight. His value gets an extra boost because the Warriors and Spurs are projected for the slate’s second-highest total (230), per OddsShopper.

Top Five High-Multiplier Plays

I’ll also use Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals to identify the top-five low-value players for tonight’s slate. Only players with multipliers at or above 1.65x will qualify.

DeMarcus Cousins (1.65x)

With Christian Wood week-to-week, Cousins should remain the starter at center for the Rockets. Although his minutes have increased in Wood’s absence, his multiplier remains a bit high for his usage, and that makes him a fantastic option on this slate. Our model projects him to end up as the slate’s highest scorer.

Jakob Poeltl (1.75x)

If you want to pivot away from Cousins, Poeltl is a strong value alternative at center. With Aldridge out, Poeltl has taken over the starting role, and he just earned a double-double last night. He could easily do so again in the second half of this back-to-back series with the Warriors.

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Cole Anthony (1.8x)

Anthony’s multiplier is surprisingly low for a player who sees roughly 30 minutes per game. He’s scored at least double-digit points in his last four games too.

Joe Ingles (1.8x)

Ingles has averaged almost 28 minutes per game over his last four appearances, yet his multiplier still sits at 1.8x. Ingles has a double-double in that time span, too, and our projections rank him between Brandon Ingram and Stephen Curry.

Gary Trent Jr. (1.75x)

The projections don’t like Trent nearly as much as they like the other four options, but he has eligibility at both guard and forward, and he’s a good backstop option on this slate. Trent saw 30-plus minutes in each of his last three games, during which he averaged 23 points per game.

Five SuperDraft Fades

Nickeil Alexander-Walker (1.85x)

Alexander-Walker isn’t getting the minutes necessary even to pay off this multiplier. He has averaged only 18.5 minutes played over his last three, making him an easy fade on tonight’s slate.

Daniel Theis (1.75x)

I don’t like Theis against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz, and our model doesn’t either. The two teams are also projected for the slate’s second-lowest total (220.5), per OddsShopper. You can find much better alternatives at center.

R.J. Barrett (1.5x)

I don’t expect much scoring in this game, as the OddsShopper total sits at a slate-low 207.5. Barrett’s multiplier isn’t high enough to compensate for the poor matchup, and he’s the lowest-ranked active player with a multiplier at 1.5x or above. He scored just 3 points in fewer than 20 minutes played in the first game of this series.

Tyler Herro (1.6x)

I’m fading Herro for the same reason that I’m fading Barrett. Herro had a decent last game against the Knicks, as he scored 16 points in 32 minutes, but his above-average field-goal percentage (.538) points to regression.

Mitchell Robinson (1.65x)

Robinson finished with just 6 points and 7 boards against the Heat on Sunday, and you’d be better off looking elsewhere at center.

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.