Tonight’s NBA slate looks like it’ll be a high-scoring one, and that creates plenty of exploitable matchups for those looking to build a successful SuperDraft lineup.
If you haven’t heard of SuperDraft, it’s an innovative new way to play DFS. Instead of using a salary cap, players receive multipliers that inversely correspond to their value. For example, Stephen Curry will come with a lower multiplier because he should play most of the game. In comparison, a rotational player like Danuel House will receive a higher multiplier to compensate for his limited minutes.
NBA SuperDraft Lineup Advice & Strategy | Feb. 10
Top Five Low-Multiplier Plays
Using Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals, here are the top-five high-value players for your NBA SuperDraft lineup. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or below 1.35x.
James Harden (1.2x)
Harden had a huge workload last night, as he had to play 39 minutes with Kevin Durant sidelined. I’m a bit worried that Steve Nash may reduce his workload heading into this one, but assuming he plays, our projections absolutely love Harden here. It’s hard to pass up a high-profile scorer in what’s projected as the slate’s highest-scoring matchup, per OddsShopper.
Gordon Hayward (1.35x)
Hayward is in a smash spot against the Grizzlies tonight. They have struggled against small forwards all season, but you’ll get Hayward with a fairly high multiplier, which gives him slate-winning upside.
Domantas Sabonis (1.25x)
Sabonis should put up lots of fantasy points on the other side of this matchup against the Nets. Our projections have him as the seventh-best player on the slate.
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Kyrie Irving (1.3x)
Although Irving is dealing with a finger issue, Nash said that the pain was “manageable” for him before Tuesday’s matchup, and Irving didn’t look very hampered by the injury. With a relatively high multiplier in what should be a high-scoring game, Irving is a fantastic asset at guard.
Zach LaVine (1.25x)
I love LaVine tonight. The Pelicans give up the most 3-pointers per game, and LaVine should attempt an above-average number of triples. When you consider that tendency, along with his high multiplier and the game’s fourth-highest projected total on OddsShopper, it’ll be hard to leave LaVine out of your lineup.
Note: Our projections also love LaMelo Ball (1.4x), but he doesn’t qualify as a low-multiplier or high-multiplier play.
Top Five High-Multiplier Plays
I’ll also use Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals to identify the top-five low-value players for tonight’s slate. Only players with multipliers at or above 1.65x will qualify.
Hamidou Diallo (1.75x)
The Thunder are still without both George Hill and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, so their reserves make good value picks due to their high multipliers. While the sportsbooks don’t expect them to do much offensive damage against the Lakers, Oklahoma City successfully forced Los Angeles to overtime on Monday, and their players won’t take this game sitting down.
Cody Zeller (1.7x)
Zeller should do plenty of damage against a banged-up Memphis squad, and he makes a great value option at center. Our projections rank him sixth overall for tonight’s slate.
Isaiah Roby (1.95x)
As I said about Diallo, the Thunder will have to keep rolling out their reserves tonight, and Roby is one of Oklahoma City’s freshest players. Roby sat out Monday’s game with right foot soreness, and he may have more spring in his step than Diallo and Darius Bazley, both of whom played 40-plus minutes in the first game of this series.
Denzel Valentine (1.95x)
Valentine has seen his minutes steadily increase, and that could pay dividends against the Pelicans tonight. With a high multiplier and a high projected point total, look for Valentine to sink enough shots from deep to finish as a higher-end option.
Al Horford (1.65x)
Horford posted 14 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists against the Lakers on Monday, and he may have more on his plate tonight with Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined.
Five SuperDraft NBA Fades
Here are some players that players do our projections say you should avoid when building your NBA SuperDraft lineup.
Cedi Osman (1.75x)
Osman ranks as the worst player with a multiplier at 1.75x or above. Cleveland’s slow-paced offense hurts his value, and his multiplier isn’t set nearly high enough to compensate.
Bobby Portis (1.7x)
The projections also dislike Portis tonight, which makes sense, as the Suns play strong defense and at a slow pace. I would avoid most Bucks tonight, especially him.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (1.55x)
I have mixed feelings about Hardaway. On the one hand, he did a great job against the Hawks last week, and I suspect that he’ll have another decent showing tonight. On the other, his multiplier is fairly low, and you can find much better value at guard on this slate.
Ja Morant (1.45x)
Morant ranks as the worst player with a multiplier above 1.5x according to Awesemo’s projections. With much more value at guard elsewhere, you’re better off avoiding him.
Jonas Valanciunas (1.45x)
Valanciunas ranks as the next-worst player with a multiplier above 1.5x. Admittedly, he ranks far better than Morant, as his projection (44.6) is almost 10 points greater than Morant’s (35.7), but that still isn’t very high on this slate.
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