NBA DFS Switch And Hedge: Everybody Is Questionable For Dallas

The NBA playoffs are underway and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Switch and Hedge article.

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What Is The Mavericks’ Plan?

Kristaps Porzingis tore his meniscus, killing the Mavericks’ odds of winning this series. The team hopes he does not need surgery, but there is no way to know until swelling goes down. After tearing his ACL a couple of years ago, serious doubts surround whether Porzingis can sustain the wear and tear of an NBA season.

Not only is Porzingis out, Dallas listed a handful of players questionable for today. By a handful, I mean half of the core players in the rotation. Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke and Dorian Finney-Smith all carry a questionable tag. I am not sure what to make of this. As double-digit underdogs in a 3-2 series, it’s possible that Dallas will punt this game to try to avoid serious injury. I don’t think this is what will happen, although I am not confident Doncic is going to play. If players sit, Dallas might head into a playoff game led by Seth Curry, Maxi Kleber and Boban Marjanovic.

Potential Clippers’ Impact If Mavericks Sit

This essentially only applies to Doncic even though the other players have DFS significance. If Doncic doesn’t play, this game is all but a lock to end in a blowout. As is, Los Angeles is favored by 10.5 points. Without Doncic, the betting line in this contest could swell to 18 points or so. If this happens, then limited minutes for Clippers’ core players seems inevitable. Doc Rivers has played it cautiously with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George all year, so it stands to reason that a blowout win could keep his stars to around 25 minutes or so. In Game 5, the Clippers won by 43, and both of the All-Stars played under 30 minutes. As easy as the matchup is, it’s difficult to trust Leonard or George in NBA DFS lineups if Doncic sits.

Kyle Lowry Upgraded To Probable

It looks like the time off did some good for Lowry. Game 1 of the series between the Celtics and Raptors was scheduled for Thursday, and Lowry was listed as questionable at the time. After the extra couple of days off, Lowry is probable, and there is no reason to think he won’t play. The problem here is that the Celtics have one of the stronger backcourt defenses in the league. With Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown on Boston, I don’t like Lowry’s chances to put up a big game. The same goes for Fred VanVleet, and he comes into today’s slate super expensive across the industry. I think the best way to get exposure to Toronto is by rostering Pascal Siakam because the frontcourt defense for the Celtics’ isn’t as strong as the backcourt.

Gary Harris Makes His Bubble Debut

I guess this is a better late than never scenario. Even so, I highly doubt that Harris is going to find much success defending Donovan Mitchell after not playing in NBA game for four months. This is a massive ask by the Nuggets, and as much as I like Harris as a defender, I am not sure he is up to the challenge. Mitchell is still a viable option for NBA DFS despite Harris playing, but Mitchell is a bit overpriced everywhere. The one positive for Denver is that it’s not like Harris can do a worse job guarding Mitchell than players like Torrey Craig and Monte Morris. Mitchell has roasted these guys all series. There is less value on the Nuggets’ wing now that Harris is soaking up some minutes.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.