NBA DFS Switch And Hedge: Not Playing To Avoid Playing Poorly

The NBA playoffs are underway and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Switch and Hedge article.

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Eric Bledsoe Questionable To Play

Few players have taken as much heat as Bledsoe the last few years in the playoffs. Behind Paul George, Bledsoe is next up on Twitter’s chopping block as a player to attack. While he undoubtedly is one of the better regular season point guards in the NBA and one of the best defenders in the league, his playoff performances are far from great. For today, he sets up some interesting potential. On a two-game slate without much value, Bledsoe is the only player listed on the injury report.

If Bledsoe isn’t able to play, I assume George Hill will enter the starting lineup. At times, George played over Bledsoe in the playoffs during crunch last year so, it is possible that Hill will see an uptick in minutes even if Bledsoe plays at less than full health. In addition, both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton see big bumps in usage when Bledsoe is off the court. Middleton’s usage jumps from 26.3% to 31.8% without the point guard on the floor.

Russell Westbrook‘s Minutes

This is Westbrook’s second game back since returning from a quad injury. Following an extended layoff, Westbrook was expected to play with a 25-28 minutes restriction last game, but he didn’t even see that much run. While this was a factor of the score since the Rockets won by 34 points in a game that was basically over around halftime, this still raises questions about how much Westbrook will play today. Since his price isn’t discounted, he makes for one of the weaker per-dollar plays on the slate. This makes Westbrook a player I don’t have much interest in, and I much prefer paying up for Giannis or James Harden.

Thunder Facing Elimination

Down 3-2 in the series, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that Oklahoma City has to win today. Maybe Charles Barkley feels otherwise, but everybody else recognizes that the Thunder need a win. On the other hand, I don’t expect as much desperation out of the Rockets, which is why I think Westbrook could remain on a minutes restriction. As for Oklahoma City, the series score dictates that we will probably see a massive workload from Chris Paul. I expect him to play over 40 minutes, making him my favorite point guard play on the slate. I think we could see the masses go to Dennis Schroder since he played well last game, and if this is the case, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes for a nice pivot option.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.