It’s an early start for NBA DFS across the industry today, particularly on the West Coast. But we have a six-game NBA slate in front of us for the first time since March, and that means a lot of opportunity with gigantic prizes up top in various tournaments. We’ll run through it as fast as I possibly can in today’s NBA DFS Switch and Hedge.
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The Caris LeVert Experience
The Nets will be without a litany of players in the NBA bubble. But the absences of Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie will mean a lot of opportunity for Caris LeVert. He wields a 39% usage rate and 1.4 fantasy points per minute with the other two lead guards off the court, and his price will somehow not result in incredibly chalky ownership. I love LeVert despite a tough matchup on paper against Orlando’s steady defense. Jarrett Allen will also see a boost without DeAndre Jordan in the bubble to siphon minutes from him. Allen will be chalkier due to his price point – and there could be more of a logic to move away from him than LeVert with some stud centers available – but he has seen extended run in scrimmages thus far. That should be the case again today, barring foul trouble.
Chris Chiozza and Joe Harris should see more opportunity as well because of the lack of bodies for the Nets. Chiozza’s a value with a marginal ceiling, but Harris could be sneaky. Both seem more likely to thrive if LeVert were to falter. I’m less inclined for Tyler Johnson, but you could talk me into a stab at Jamal Crawford as a veteran heater who’ll have all the usage he wants off the bench.
Nikola Vucevic jumps out for Orlando, especially given what we know of Brooklyn’s historical struggles versus centers. He’s a viable high-priced pivot to Allen at much less ownership. Markelle Fultz and Evan Fournier look like reasonable mid-tier priced plays while Aaron Gordon is a bit banged up and overpriced. He’s under 5% projected ownership and could be an interesting GPP play, especially considering he hung 53.5 fantasy points on the Nets the last time he saw them pre-quarantine.
The Return Of Portland’s Bigs
Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic are both expected back for Portland, and oddly, Nurkic even started alongside Hassan Whiteside in scrimmages. Collins will be a chalky play at minimum price, but he seems like one I may be inclined to move away from. It’s too much ownership in my estimation for a guy that averages 0.7 fantasy points per minute. I’d be more willing to take that dice roll on Nurkic who’s looked a lot more like his old self in the bubble thus far. It’s also worth noting that Nurkic’s return likely takes some oomph out of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, two players who’ve had to deal with a lower-usage player in Whiteside with them thus far. I also wouldn’t take the bait with skinny Carmelo Anthony either for that reason.
Memphis’s side has a very intriguing value play in Jaren Jackson Jr. who’s cheaply priced everywhere across the industry. You can poke holes in Jackson normally given his foul issues, but the ownership on him seems very reasonable to me. It’s hard for me to imagine a way he doesn’t easily outscore the aforementioned Collins chalk. I never have an issue with a Jonas Valanciunas GPP play, though his price is teetering on onerous. The abundance of Portland bigs could keep him heavily involved. Dillon Brooks pops up for me a little as well since he may finally shoot better than 40% from the floor despite his lofty 25% usage rate. But Ja Morant would wrap up my interest. He’s got a chance to be a bubble breakout player, and his usage and assist rates have been on the cusp of star level all year.
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Washington Has A Skeleton Crew
Phoenix will be without Kelly Oubre, and all of their core players should get a bump as a result. Devin Booker in a pace-up looks good. Deandre Ayton can have upside. Ricky Rubio also had some lights out performances before the break with Oubre out. I have no issue with any of the core Suns, perhaps other than Dario Saric. Saric strikes me as more than appropriately priced for the increased minutes he’ll see sans Oubre. I’d warn though: It’s possible this is not quite as big of a pace-up boost as we’re used to for teams playing Washington. They will not find shots as easily in the clock without Bradley Beal in tow.
I do like the concept of the remaining Wizards, though. Shabazz Napier has shown an ability to take on a ton of usage with Beal off the court in limited sample sizes. He projects for around 10% ownership, and I’d want a lot more. Troy Brown will also jump off the page with a usage rate around 25% with no Beal or Jordan McRae, but I’m less of a believer there. I’ll stay with the field on him. It’s hard to pay Rui Hachimura’s lofty price even though he should have more theoretical opportunity. I’d rather have a far cheaper Thomas Bryant, who’ll also be healthier after a few months off. You could also talk me into some Ish Smith shares at his cheap price. Napier is clearly the lead guard, but they can afford to get creative with both on the court given the lack of bodies who can find their shot or create for others.
A Houston-Dallas Late Night Hammer
Luka Doncic looks like a top play on the slate with his projections but his ownership could get sky high. The 230.5 over/under is the highest on the slate, though, and it seems risky to not ride with the field on Doncic. I also don’t hate that approach with Kristaps Porzingis, a player who really blossomed down the stretch after some Doncic absences gave him unlimited usage. Keep in mind: There is nothing even resembling a center for Houston and Porzingis played up to 40 minutes before the COVID shutdown.
James Harden and Russell Westbrook also look good. Westbrook will project slightly higher but comes with a ton more ownership. Meanwhile, Harden is likely in the best or at least most slender shape of his life. Westbrook is Westbrook, but he is coming off of a case of COVID and hasn’t had the full ramp-up in the bubble. I’d rather take the ownership discount for Harden. Either way, both guys will see a boost with Eric Gordon out to start their restarted campaign. I also will have some shares of Robert Covington at his reasonable price point, though he’s certainly a bit chalky relative to his ceiling. Maybe it’s the move to take a value priced Danuel House instead, though his 13% usage rate doesn’t take much of a leap even when Gordon is off the floor.
And The Rest Of The Slate
–Kemba Walker is on a minutes limit that makes him unplayable. But his 15-20 minutes of court time likely take enough away from Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward and company to make them less desirable at their high price points. Tatum could be a viable GPP stab, but I don’t see it for Boston.
-Milwaukee should gain some more appeal with Giannis Antetokounmpo’s boosts in assists and usage without Eric Bledsoe. Khris Middleton sees slightly less value from Bledsoe’s absence and I’m not as convinced of Donte DiVincenzo getting much more than a minutes boost. It may be wiser to look at a value-priced George Hill.
-San Antonio will be without LaMarcus Aldridge in the bubble, and that should give some runway to guys like DeMar DeRozan and Dejounte Murray, and a lot of run for Jakob Poeltl. Poeltl is a very cheap center play along the lines of Jarrett Allen, albeit with much less ownership. DeRozan sees the biggest boosts in usage and assist rate, and while he can be disappointing, it’s hard to see how he doesn’t get a ton of opportunity. Bryn Forbes being out doesn’t hurt anyone either.
-As was the case before the season stopped, I expect I’ll have way too much Bogdan Bogdanovic. I like his price point and his minutes were very secure before the COVID shutdown, as Buddy Hield mostly fell out of favor. De’Aaron Fox is probably a safer play but at a tougher price. I’d rather have LeVert in that range, but Fox is an interesting and lower-owned pivot. Guys like Richaun Holmes and Nemanja Bjelica are also interesting tournament plays who can spike an upside as long as Holmes doesn’t have to sneak out to grab a Postmates snack.
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