Happy Monday, everyone. Hope you all closed out the NFL regular season with a bang, but it’s time to hone in on hoops. I’m back with some NBA DFS picks and strategy for DraftKings and FanDuel for this nine-game slate for Monday, 1/4, so let’s get started.
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NBA DFS Slate Starter: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks & Strategy | 1/4
Context is King
I’m not a card-carrying member of “Team Watch the Tape,” but I do my best to catch a small portion of every NBA game during or after a slate. For one, I just like basketball significantly more than the average human. While any sport at any time can sink me into a blissful trance on the couch, the NBA has always been my favorite to follow. Add in how fun it can be to sweat lineups late into the night, and it doesn’t take too much convincing for me to put in a little extra “work.”
However, the main reason I rewatch now has changed. That’s because I have lovely readers such as yourselves I feel accountable to, and every once in a while I might need to see something for myself that can’t always be explained by a box score alone. Fortunately, with the combination of PopcornMachine.net and NBA League Pass, it doesn’t take long to answer questions I might have about rotations, context for good/bad outings and much more.
For instance, I needed to see for myself what’s going on with Pascal Siakam. Having shown plenty of upside in the past, Siakam has taken his struggles from the bubble and carried them directly into the beginning of this season. He’s averaging a paltry 34.3 DraftKings points per game, far from ideal when factoring in his $7,700 salary for Monday’s slate. But most concerning to me about his box score was the recent streak of games with significant foul trouble that has limited his minutes.
So I fired up the Raptors’ most recent game from Saturday against the Pelicans, and a few things I might not have otherwise noticed stood out. For starters, Fred VanVleet was so aggressive on the offensive end that it didn’t leave much offensive opportunity for anyone else. I also think the referees were a little nitpicky on Siakam in the fourth quarter. While the swipe across Zion Williamson‘s forearm at the 8:58 mark was worthy of his fifth foul, the call on his sixth foul for a late challenge of Josh Hart 30 seconds later was so soft it’s a joke. It didn’t help that Kyle Lowry was complaining about everything the entire period, leading to some questionable whistles that could’ve otherwise been eaten. All of this culminated in an early exit for the star Raptors forward, who finished with just 17 DraftKings points in 25 minutes.
Cool, So What Are You Saying?
I have two big takeaways from this for you. First, everyone playing NBA DFS feels inherently better rostering players who have been performing well with box scores that prove it. But as the years have gone by, I’ve taught myself to be much more interested in buy-low opportunities on struggling players. After all, a lot of the time you’re rewarded with a suppressed price tag and reduced ownership for the perceived risk of rostering them. That’s why plays such as Siakam, Luka Doncic and Kelly Oubre make for some of my favorite options on this slate. Having seen the last Siakam game for myself, there’s very little that concerns me about him going forward.
And secondly, we can all look at Stephen Curry‘s 62-point bonanza from Sunday night and say “seems like he’s shooting OK” and fire him up again on Monday at a salary that didn’t have time to adjust. But instead of firing up only good box scores into your lineups, do some digging on a few garbage box scores instead. Dig for some context as to why they may or may not be a bounce-back candidate on the upcoming slate because if you don’t get in now on someone due for positive regression such as Siakam, you’ll miss your chance to capitalize on the market’s inefficiencies.
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Final Words for Your NBA DFS Lineups
Monday’s slate is scarce for value as of writing, but I’m sure that will change in the lead up to lock. As always, be sure to catch the Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows, as the crew at Awesemo is elite at breaking down the news as it flies in.
I alluded to this on the NBA Slate Starter podcast with Rynpak, but eight of the nine games on this slate start between 7 p.m and 8 p.m. EST. There’s then a subsequent gap until the late-night DraftKings and FanDuel hammer between the Warriors and Kings that is truly hammer-esque since it opened with a 232.5 total. While Curry and De’Aaron Fox will rightfully receive the most attention, there are many solid pieces in the $4,000-6,000 range that can spike an upside in a high-paced outing. While I hope we can all be near the top of the leaderboard with Curry or Fox remaining, be sure to utilize late swap to land on some of the lesser-owned plays if the first session of games doesn’t go your way.
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