Welcome to this Wednesday, Jan. 6 edition of the NBA Slate Starter. I’m in a much better mood, having made some much better late swaps on Tuesday than I did on Monday. And while I don’t have any tournament takedowns to report, it’s still nice to carry the momentum of a profitable day into the next one. And what a day it is, with 11 games in the Association starting up at 7 p.m. EST. Let’s try to find some more high-quality NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Slate Starter: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks & Strategy | Jan. 6
Shai Gilgeous-Whatsthematter
Of all the things I’ve been wrong about so far this season, there is no close second to the level of wrongness I’ve been about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Logic would indicate that with Chris Paul sent to the Suns and Dennis Schroder leaving for the Lakers, there would be an eternal amount of usage waiting for the young Gilgeous-Alexander to capitalize on. Add in that the rest of the Thunder roster resembles one long line of bench players, and I assumed the 22-year-old was destined for a massive fantasy year.
Boy, have I been wrong. Through six games, Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to exceed 50 DraftKings points once despite a salary that’s continued to sit around $8,000 for most of the season. Even more concerning is he’s averaged only 27.8 fantasy points and just 14 field goal attempts per game in the Thunder’s past three. And the thing that upsets me the most is he’s only attempting 4.7 free throws per game (5.1 last season). The career 80% foul shooter getting to the line more last season in a crowded backcourt with significantly less usage is frustrating. So to say the least, Gilgeous-Alexander is on the struggle bus, and I’m not sure when he’ll get off.
However, while “optimistic” might be a strong word, I am hopeful the young point guard could turn it around soon. He still leads the Thunder in usage rate by a considerable margin at 27.7%. His assist rate is a whopping 34.9% so far in this young season. And like many of my favorite buy-low targets, he’s been shooting the ball horrendously (43% from the field and sub 30% from 3). If he starts shooting closer to his career rates and can get to the line a bit more, Gilgeous-Alexander has the kind of upside you wouldn’t just want in your DraftKings and FanDuel tournament lineups, but you’d need. While I certainly understand any trepidation, keep investing in the talent and the opportunity here. I’m convinced it’s going to pay off.
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Be Bearish on LaMelo Ball
Let’s go from discussing a struggling third-year guard to an emerging rookie sensation. After an abysmal opening night, LaMelo Ball has been on a mini-tear stuffing the stat sheet of late, lifting his yearly averages to just shy of 12 points, five boards and five assists a night. Now priced at just $6,000 on DraftKings, I expect him to garner some ownership there in a high-paced matchup with the Hawks featuring a plump 232 total.
But beware — each of the Hornets’ past four games have been decided by more than 15 points. And courtesy of PopcornMachine.net, you can see that Ball closed out every single one of them. So while Ball’s solid play might earn him more minutes going forward, I still don’t see him getting crunch time run for James Borrego’s squad in close games. Maybe I’m off here and Devonte’ Graham‘s cold streak of play will spark a changing of the guard (literally). But I’m not willing to find out on an 11-game slate if there’s significant ownership there.
Final Thoughts for Your NBA DFS Lineups
Breaking down double-digit NBA games can be a nightmare, so let Awesemo’s own Adam Scherer do it for you. Check out his Deep Dive article, where he goes game by game discussing every fantasy-relevant play possible. It’s in front of the paywall this year, so I strongly urge you to take advantage.
As far as ownership goes, I love larger NBA slates because I don’t have to factor it in nearly as much. Of course, there will still be chalk plays and I will still have some exposure to them. But there will no doubt be a multitude of low-owned, high-upside plays to choose from due to the size of the slate alone. That’s why you should play your guys (Brandon Ingram, anyone?), so long as your guys aren’t abysmally priced.
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