NBA DFS Picks DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Lineup Building Strategy 5/6

Wednesday was another wild one, as you will be hard-pressed to see winnings scores this big ever again from here until eternity. Obsessing over high or low scoring has never been my thing in this sport, as it’s extremely slate-dependent and not indicative of anything besides how hard the chalk went off. Well, on Wednesday there is no question the chalk was exceptional, so the 400-point scores came rolling in. Congratulations if you were one of them; let’s take that forward momentum and put it to work tonight. So let’s dig into this seven-game slate a little bit and find some more NBA DFS picks and strategies to take us to the top on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Be sure to check out the Slate Starter podcast, featuring yours truly and Rynpak, to get the first look at the slate and make NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel!

NBA DFS Slate Starter: Picks & Strategy | May 6

Dallas Center Roulette

The NBA DFS Gods have been kind and blessed us with yet another decently-sized slate by Thursday standards. This seven-gamer is full of the usual tomfoolery, as the Thunder, the Pacers, and most of all the Pistons should continue to give us massive fits. Having addressed them all multiple times over the past week, you know the main beneficiaries by now depending on how injury news shakes out. And if you don’t, what a perfect time to become an Awesemo+ subscriber, where the industry-leading projections are being used and updated throughout the day by Alex “Awesemo” Baker himself. It’s extremely difficult to navigate these waters with the significant amount of late news that piles on each and every night, so let the best NBA DFS player in the world take the guesswork out of projecting players in real time for you.

But back to the task at hand. Thursday is bound to be another night parsing through the “how many Pistons are too many Pistons”-type questions, as they’ll be incredible value for at least one more night. At the center position, however, Isaiah Stewart is no longer the sure-thing he’s been whenever Mason Plumlee has been out of late. That’s because Jahlil Okafor is back and apparently in favor with the Dwane Casey again, evidenced by the 22 minutes of run he received on Tuesday. Therefore, a lot of the shine has worn off on Stewart, making it hard to be enthusiastic about rostering him at his price points tonight. In fact, there isn’t much to get enthusiastic with at the entire center position as a whole.

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And with that in mind, we’re going to discuss what could very well be a pivotal decision for us in tournaments on DraftKings: do we take shots on the cheap Mavericks center rotation consisting of a $3,500 Dwight Powell and $3,000 Willie Cauley-Stein, or avoid it like the plague? To help us get started, let’s take a look at some box scores from the Mavericks’ last three games with the help of PopcornMachine.net:

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First thing to note from these box scores spanning May 1 (at the top) to May 4 (at the bottom) is that Kristaps Porzingis was absent for all three and Maxi Kleber was out last game versus the Heat. Both will be out once more again, so the option to play small versus the Nets isn’t really there, meaning one of Powell, Cauley-Stein and Boban Marjanovic will be on the floor at all times.

Now let’s get down to the pure madness we’re dealing with here. On May 1 versus the Wizards, Powell started but played only 19 minutes to Cauley-Stein’s 27; subsequently, Cauley-Stein smashed. On May 2 against the Kings, Powell started again and got 20 minutes compared to Cauley-Stein’s nine; subsequently, Powell smashed. But in their previous game on May 4, it was Cauley-Stein that got the starting nod, yet he only received 18 minutes to Powell’s hefty 28; subsequently, Powell smashed once more. And let it be known, there was no foul trouble for either in any of those spots besides Powell last game, where he picked up his fourth and fifth fouls early in the fourth quarter. But considering the Mavericks were already up by 20-plus already at that point in time, it was rather irrelevant.

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If we could just combine Cauley-Stein’s 28.5 DraftKings points in that first game with $3,500 Powell’s 30.25 and 34 in the next two, you’d have one heck of a center over the past three outings. But because we can’t, there’s a choice that has to be made between the two plays, and it won’t feel comfortable either way. Definitely be checking out Awesemo’s ownership repeatedly leading up to lock, as my guess is Powell is rostered at a significantly-higher clip based on the last two games. And with that in mind, be aware that there could be some serious leverage to be had by gambling on Cauley-Stein’s minutes, especially if he isn’t starting.

In summary, we will most likely be gifted with better value tonight that trumps these two, but hard to tell yet if that will come at the center position or not. So for now, simply be aware of how volatile and random these center minutes have been over the past three games and embrace it. Recency bias should certainly fall in line with Powell, a .85 DraftKings points per minute producer on the season. But at least being aware that it could just as easily be Cauley-Stein’s turn for extended run this time around should help us be lighter on Powell should that ownership be a little too bullish. And as a.81 DraftKings points per minute producer himself at minimum salary, Cauley-Stein is definitely flyer that’s worth taking some shots on.

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Final Thoughts for Your NBA DFS Lineups

A thousand words on the Nuggets depleted backcourt yesterday (all three covered plays went completely off, by the way) to the Mavericks frontcourt today. What a time to be alive.
If you’re still fading Russell Westbrook at this point in time, there’s really not much to tell you. This isn’t like a Derrick Henry-type situation if you’re familiar with the NFL DFS analogy, as the projectable nature of basketball gives us much more certainty around his production. So at $11,000 on DraftKings, the factor of the matter is he remain way, way too cheap.
LaMelo Ball could bury any doubts in the minds of Rookie of the Year voters with a massive performance against the Bulls tonight. He received a significant price hike into the upper-$7,000’s on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he still possesses a ceiling at those numbers.
Just play Kevin Durant.

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Author

Eric Lindquist

Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.