NBA SuperDraft Lineup Picks: Today's Expert DFS Plays

There is a five-game main slate on tap for tonight, and if you’re interested in building an NBA SuperDraft lineup, our projections have you covered. Here are the best studs to feature on tonight’s slate — as well as a handful of players to fade, too.

If you haven’t heard of SuperDraft, it’s an innovative new way to play DFS. Instead of using a salary cap, players receive multipliers that inversely correspond to their value. For example, Stephen Curry will come with a lower multiplier because he should play most of the game. In comparison, a rotational player like Jae Crowder will receive a higher multiplier to compensate for his limited minutes.

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SuperDraft NBA Fantasy Picks Advice & Strategy | Mar. 1

Top Five Low-Multiplier Plays

Using Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals, here are the top five high-value players for your NBA SuperDraft lineup. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or below 1.35x.

Damian Lillard (1.1x)

We have two clear-cut lead options on tonight’s slate, and Lillard is the first of them. The Trail Blazers and Hornets are projected for the slate’s third-most points (232), which isn’t great on a five-game set, but it matters less because those three games have totals above 230. Lillard will have to drive Portland’s offense tonight — and he’ll get to do so against a Hornets team that just played a close game last night. Expect a bunch of points for him here.

Nikola Jokic (1.1x)

Jokic will play in the game projected for the second-fewest points (227.5). That said, the total is relatively close to 230, and the Bulls’ fourth-fastest pace could help this sail over the total — especially since the Nuggets have the third-highest over percentage. Look for Jokic to stuff the stat sheet in what could become a barnburner.

James Harden (1x)

The Nets’ game against the Spurs is projected for the slate’s highest total, and Harden should drive this offense with Kevin Durant out until after the All-Star Break. I don’t like the lack of a multiplier, but Harden is the kind of player who doesn’t need one. Our projections rank him fourth on the slate.

Zach LaVine (1.3x)

I have faith that LaVine will help the Bulls keep up with the Nuggets. His multiplier is quite friendly too given his ridiculous offensive output. LaVine has averaged 31.9 points,5.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists over his last eight appearances, and he should be a reliable contributor at guard tonight.

Jarrett Allen (1.3x)

Allen demolished the Rockets when these teams met last Wednesday. He recorded a team-high 26 points and 18 rebounds over 37 minutes, as Houston just doesn’t have the size necessary to limit someone like Allen. He should produce similar numbers on tonight’s slate.

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Top Five High-Multiplier Plays

I’ll also use Awesemo’s SuperDraft NBA Projections and OddsShopper’s projected point totals to identify the top five low-value players for tonight’s slate. For a player to qualify, they must have a multiplier at or above 1.65x.

Darius Garland (1.65x)

I don’t love the Cavaliers tonight, as their game has the slate’s lowest total (217). That said, I blame Houston for that, as they have averaged a disappointing 97.8 points per game over their last four, including an 84-point showing against Memphis. Cleveland scored a rock-solid 112 points against Houston last Wednesday and Garland double-doubled in the matchup. He makes a fine high-multiplier play tonight.

Danuel House (1.85x)

Speaking of last Wednesday’s game, House posted 14 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists in the matchup. He had posted double-digit points in three straight contests before Houston’s blowout loss to the Grizzlies, and he has started each of the team’s last six games. He should continue to get the volume necessary to pay off this multiplier.

Robert Covington (1.65x) and Gary Trent Jr. (1.65x)

The Blazers should post a lot of points against the Hornets tonight, and two of their starters have high-value multipliers. Trent’s multiplier is surprisingly high for a player who has averaged 17.4 points, 2.0 rebounds and 1.2 assists over his last five games. He should maintain that solid pace tonight. And while Covington hasn’t been fantastic lately, the Hornets are especially vulnerable to bigs, so look for him to hit his ceiling tonight.

LaMarcus Aldridge (1.65x)

I’m a bit surprised to see Aldridge’s multiplier set this high. While he hasn’t played more than 26 minutes in his first two games back, the Spurs are starting to get back in the swing of things, and Aldridge should see his normal playing time soon. Even if he continues to play relatively limited minutes, he should do some damage against the Nets, as they struggle against opposing centers.

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Five SuperDraft NBA Fade Picks

Here are some players that players do our projections say you should avoid when building your NBA SuperDraft lineup.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker (1.85x)

I feature Alexander-Walker in every column because of his absurd multiplier, which hasn’t moved in weeks. Alexander-Walker has played 10-plus minutes just once in New Orleans’ last 10 outings, yet his multiplier remains higher than J.J. Redick‘s (2x). Do not consider using Alexander-Walker for any reason.

Cedi Osman (1.75x)

Osman is the lowest-ranked active player with a multiplier set at 1.75x or below. He notched 7 points and 8 rebounds against the Rockets last Wednesday, but he played only 20 minutes, and you can find options with higher upside in this multiplier range (see: Danuel House).

Keldon Johnson (1.6x)

Johnson is questionable for tonight’s matchup against the Nets. While I’d usually love to fire up anyone against Brooklyn, our projections don’t expect much out of Johnson, and it’s hard to get excited about a guy who hasn’t played since Valentine’s Day.

Thaddeus Young (1.6x)

Young has had a strong slate of recent games, but our projections don’t like him much against Denver. The Nuggets have been an above-average unit against power forwards, where Young has spent 53% of his minutes. Worse, they rank top two against centers, where Young spends the rest of his time. You are better off looking elsewhere at forward tonight.

Bojan Bogdanovic (1.65x)

Bogdanovic posted decent numbers against the Pelicans earlier in the year, but our projections don’t expect him to do much damage tonight. While I’m a fan of targeting players in games expected to be high-scoring, our model encourages you to leave Bogdanovic out of your NBA SuperDraft lineup.

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.