NFL

NFL Advanced Stats – Game Script Adjusted Rush % and Pace

Published

8 months ago

November 21, 2020

Football is a sport where the optimal strategy for teams changes drastically throughout the game based on the score and the time left on the clock. Knowing team tendencies is critical to success in fantasy football, but it can be confusing looking at box scores and trying to draw conclusions about team tendencies without really digging into the details about how the game flow went. The best data comes from neutral game-script scenarios, which can be extrapolated into overall team tendencies.

To determine what plays qualify for neutral game script, we looked at ones where the score threshold and time left on the clock is within a close enough range to not change the team’s optimal strategy. In addition, plays that took place inside the 2-minute warning in each half where passing is heavily incentivized, were disregarded.

Game Script Adjusted Rush %


NYG	45.5		36	60	47	42	48	54	33	38	43	56		46	51	40
CAR	43.7		44	36	48	41	36	50	33	45	35	39	45	53		43
LAR	40.7		51	47	53	33	46	50	37	34		37	25	48	33	46
KC	34.9	34.2	45	32	34	35	34	63	40	23	20		45	16	31	28
TEN	52.0		45	54	52		45	41	55	68	51	51	50	62	41	51
LV	45.1		52	41	53	37	51		34	52	51	54	45	18	39	37
BUF	38.2		40	39	51	34	33	50	34	64	16	33		42	40	25
IND	42.1		40	60	59	44	33	23		46	41	38	46	44	27	48
ARI	44.9		43	34	44	47	46	42	46		59	52	31	48	43	44
CIN	40.4		50	34	29	43	32	45	30	36		24	31	38	45	48
PIT	35.2		42	30	44		41	40	37	39	38	25	37	24	20	43
GB	43.3		38	46	39	40		31	40	50	43	41	42	50	33	50
WAS	40.0		48	36	35	42	30	40	51		23	42	45	42	24	41
CLE	45.4		38	50	52	41	35	41	47	54		57	61	42	39
ATL	39.5		45	53	43	46	26	51	36	43	40		35	30	31	38
NE	54.4		63	37	52	48		50	57	60	50	62	45	62	71	64
DET	45.3		41	46	48	40		58	43	33	50	50	48	59	39	32
SF	49.4		46	45	43	41	39	54	52	51	40	46		51	64	50
DEN	45.8		47	37	27	46		51	43	35	37	37	47	70	56	48
TB	34.6	33.5	60	39	31	30	34	44	30	36	13	40	28	23		50
NO	47.1		45	40	42	63	38		43	51	36	43	45	64	42	41
HOU	38.6		34	42	38	46	33	40	34		38	43	27	41	41	41
MIA	41.7		43	37	62	31	39	37		42	41	51	39	20	35	38
NYJ	48.3		35	58	47	47	52	40	47	48	47		60	50	50	46
CHI	41.4		50	43	40	37	26	36	35	39	40	36		33	54	37
PHI	43.6		28	37	45	45	42	38	39	45		37	64	30	52	45
LAC	43.5		53	63	51	45	50		35	31	47	52	26	24	28	37
SEA	40.0		31	48	42	35	34		39	39	34	42	50	40	35	42
DAL	45.1		42	44	33	37	52	40	51	52	53		50	36	48	42
BAL	55.0		64	33	40	52	36	54		57	57	51	59		63
MIN	50.1		69	47	53	58	56	42		61	56	36	50	46	47	57
JAX	44.1		48	40	54	43	38	42	49		46	40	40	54	38	29

Game Script Adjusted Pace


NYG	59.6		62	61	69	54	54	51	55	63	68	60		64	53	61
CAR	55.1		58	55	53	59	53	53	51	59	53	49	54	65		52
LAR	61.7		61	65	54	60	54	67	59	75		62	60	66	59	64
KC	63.7	66.7	55	77	62	57	75	53	61	63	69		53	65	61	62
TEN	63.6		66	66	61		74	63	57	63	63	53	61	65	64	60
LV	59.8		83	57	56	60	55		56	58	59	53	55	65	60	61
BUF	59.8		62	57	62	62	60	67	59	55	55	58		52	57	64
IND	60.7		55	57	55	71	54	71		58	60	73	59	61	57	64
ARI	65.7		67	66	67	63	66	74	64		60	70	63	61	73	62
CIN	58.6		58	54	67	66	59	60	61	56		60	63	52	51	63
PIT	60.9		55	63	59		55	60	55	56	64	68	62	64	63	61
GB	55.5		55	58	57	55		58	63	53	61	53	51	51	52	48
WAS	61.5		65	60	70	58	59	57	62		56	55	58	54	68	67
CLE	59.2		65	67	55	78	63	55	51	51		56	54	58	60
ATL	57.7		60	64	68	60	66	54	64	31	58		55	59	67	61
NE	57.8		49	65	62	64		46	62	46	56	63	52	56	61	52
DET	59.6		60	63	54	68		55	51	62	53	75	68	59	63	61
SF	57.1		57	63	54	52	66	51	51	59	53	51		62	59	65
DEN	59.9		59	61	63	53		64	64	49	60	64	62	59	57	57
TB	63.3	66.6	53	67	65	57	49	69	78	61	72	66	71	60		72
NO	58.1		61	62	57	53	63		52	52	59	51	58	54	61	52
HOU	60.0		72	63	56	71	61	63	52		67	55	59	57	58	59
MIA	57.2		66	61	50	58	53	57		69	52	53	55	65	58	61
NYJ	58.4		67	56	62	60	63	53	57	51	54		62	57	61	58
CHI	60.1		61	55	54	51	51	64	53	55	55	87		91	57	53
PHI	60.1		57	64	60	60	61	61	57	58		62	51	72	48	63
LAC	61.6		67	54	64	60	60		65	65	57	59	64	80	59	58
SEA	58.4		57	55	57	60	57		57	55	60	60	50	55	60	76
DAL	65.9		74	81	78	64	68	67	76	62	54		63	66	55	54
BAL	57.1		54	54	53	60	73	56		65	53	50	58		57
MIN	61.2		57	54	60	52	53	65		54	57	90	51	53	63	52
JAX	58.0		54	63	56	61	54	55	67		57	60	65	53	55	58

The team rushing percentage is simply the ratio of rushing plays to the sum of rushing and passing plays. Penalties and special teams plays aren’t included in this metric. The average column is the total percentage of plays that were rushing plays throughout the season. The data for each week is also included to help make observations about recent trends.

Our pace statistics are measured in plays run per 30 minutes of possession in a neutral game script. While most teams play quickly within the 2-minute warning or when playing catchup, there’s a large range of pace between NFL teams in neutral game scripts. The data for each week can help determine how big changes like a QB switch impact the team’s pace.

To create the Awesemo NFL Projections, we take into account the matchup and account for likely game scripts and add back in the plays that are disregarded in the creation of the neutral game-script statistics. This includes the fact that teams that are ahead in NFL games tend to rush at a higher rate and play at a slower pace. Personnel changes and likely strategic changes are also accounted for. These full-game projections are included in the NextGame column.

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Alex Baker

Alex is better known to fantasy players by his handle "Awesemo" from seeing him in every big tournament in the industry. Playing poker professionally from 2009-2015, he heard that daily fantasy was the next big game picking up steam, and he quickly saw the potential of the relatively new game. Growing his bankroll from 2015-2016, he made a big step in 2017 by claiming the #1 overall ranking on RotoGrinders for the year. After completing his primary objective, he was looking for what's next. Attending dozens of fantasy events, Alex realized that everyone was repeating the same story: wanting to be a great DFS player while holding down a full-time job. He realized that the resources available to fantasy players while great weren't enough to help hobbyists get to the level of competing with the top pros. Having met Tom Kennedy during the FanDuel Scottish Open, the two decided to take on the realm of fantasy content along with co-founder Eddie Lai. Alex creates his own projections for each sport he plays, publishing rankings derived directly from them updated for each major slate. He also writes strategy content for how to become a better DFS player in his Game Plan series. You can contact Alex by emailing [email protected].

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Team	NeutralAvg	NextGame	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
NYG	45.5		36	60	47	42	48	54	33	38	43	56		46	51	40
CAR	43.7		44	36	48	41	36	50	33	45	35	39	45	53		43
LAR	40.7		51	47	53	33	46	50	37	34		37	25	48	33	46
KC	34.9	34.2	45	32	34	35	34	63	40	23	20		45	16	31	28
TEN	52.0		45	54	52		45	41	55	68	51	51	50	62	41	51
LV	45.1		52	41	53	37	51		34	52	51	54	45	18	39	37
BUF	38.2		40	39	51	34	33	50	34	64	16	33		42	40	25
IND	42.1		40	60	59	44	33	23		46	41	38	46	44	27	48
ARI	44.9		43	34	44	47	46	42	46		59	52	31	48	43	44
CIN	40.4		50	34	29	43	32	45	30	36		24	31	38	45	48
PIT	35.2		42	30	44		41	40	37	39	38	25	37	24	20	43
GB	43.3		38	46	39	40		31	40	50	43	41	42	50	33	50
WAS	40.0		48	36	35	42	30	40	51		23	42	45	42	24	41
CLE	45.4		38	50	52	41	35	41	47	54		57	61	42	39
ATL	39.5		45	53	43	46	26	51	36	43	40		35	30	31	38
NE	54.4		63	37	52	48		50	57	60	50	62	45	62	71	64
DET	45.3		41	46	48	40		58	43	33	50	50	48	59	39	32
SF	49.4		46	45	43	41	39	54	52	51	40	46		51	64	50
DEN	45.8		47	37	27	46		51	43	35	37	37	47	70	56	48
TB	34.6	33.5	60	39	31	30	34	44	30	36	13	40	28	23		50
NO	47.1		45	40	42	63	38		43	51	36	43	45	64	42	41
HOU	38.6		34	42	38	46	33	40	34		38	43	27	41	41	41
MIA	41.7		43	37	62	31	39	37		42	41	51	39	20	35	38
NYJ	48.3		35	58	47	47	52	40	47	48	47		60	50	50	46
CHI	41.4		50	43	40	37	26	36	35	39	40	36		33	54	37
PHI	43.6		28	37	45	45	42	38	39	45		37	64	30	52	45
LAC	43.5		53	63	51	45	50		35	31	47	52	26	24	28	37
SEA	40.0		31	48	42	35	34		39	39	34	42	50	40	35	42
DAL	45.1		42	44	33	37	52	40	51	52	53		50	36	48	42
BAL	55.0		64	33	40	52	36	54		57	57	51	59		63
MIN	50.1		69	47	53	58	56	42		61	56	36	50	46	47	57
JAX	44.1		48	40	54	43	38	42	49		46	40	40	54	38	29

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