NFL

NFL Advanced Stats – Game Script Adjusted Rush % and Pace

Published

1 year ago

November 21, 2020

Football is a sport where the optimal strategy for teams changes drastically throughout the game based on the score and the time left on the clock. Knowing team tendencies is critical to success in fantasy football, but it can be confusing looking at box scores and trying to draw conclusions about team tendencies without really digging into the details about how the game flow went. The best data comes from neutral game-script scenarios, which can be extrapolated into overall team tendencies.

To determine what plays qualify for neutral game script, we looked at ones where the score threshold and time left on the clock is within a close enough range to not change the team’s optimal strategy. In addition, plays that took place inside the 2-minute warning in each half where passing is heavily incentivized, were disregarded.

Game Script Adjusted Rush %


Team	2021Avg	2020Avg	NextGame	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19
NYG	45.52	44.5		31.6	39.6	43.3	37.5	51.4	35.9	37.0	36.2	56.1		29.6	45.9	30.4	40.9	65.0	50.0	84.0	59.38
CAR	46.96	46.4		31.3	48.6	40.5	41.0	48.9	40.0	37.7	65.6	54.5	42.9	54.8	58.3		51.5	54.5	36.4	45.7	46.15
LAR	37.74	34.9	36.7	28.1	48.0	26.2	38.2	37.0	33.3	23.5	39.0	37.5	25.0		42.9	39.5	36.1	38.5	41.5	33.3	42.59	69.0
KC	37.43	35.3	35.5	28.6	40.5	36.2	46.2	42.9	34.0	37.5	33.3	35.5	33.3	39.3		36.8	48.4	31.9	37.1	42.2	37.70	32.4
TEN	49.64	49.1	48.5	38.5	46.7	54.0	56.9	50.0	41.5	52.8	46.7	48.0	42.9	59.3	57.6		53.1	49.1	43.6	60.7	42.86
LV	41.47	42.4		35.0	31.9	40.0	36.4	45.0	36.0	40.0		36.2	50.0	55.2	44.0	29.0	36.4	45.2	56.1	47.8	44.19	38.1
BUF	38.37	37.5	36.2	33.9	47.8	38.5	53.3	45.5	33.9		30.6	26.2	24.0	36.8	51.9		14.3	33.3	35.6	55.9	39.22	51.5
IND	48.71	46.4		50.0	41.4	40.0	45.2	37.9	35.7	52.1	28.8	57.7	47.1	64.5	30.3	65.7		75.0	49.2	54.8	52.63
ARI	40.09	41.4		41.2	45.0	42.5	40.9	37.5	48.6	44.8	43.3	51.4	25.0	44.4		57.9	28.6	22.7	43.2	35.3	45.24	24.0
CIN	42.02	42.0	40.9	54.1	36.1	54.2	41.0	27.9	47.8	33.3	28.6	33.3		49.1	60.6	45.5	46.4	48.6	42.3	30.0	40.00	37.5
PIT	40.13	39.4		32.3	35.3	34.4	34.8	57.6	42.9		44.1	50.0	38.3	41.2	35.0	46.4	45.8	29.6	34.8	30.4	45.95	43.5
GB	40.46	42.8	43.7	33.3	46.5	46.8	39.6	35.8	51.4	24.3	46.6	59.1	40.0	30.3	45.7		36.1	43.5	36.0	32.4
WAS	47.23	46.5		50.0	38.6	50.0	48.8	45.6	31.1	61.1	50.0		43.9	58.6	46.2	50.9	44.0	51.7	26.1	44.0	62.16
CLE	43.72	45.6		53.7	52.4	41.1	58.0	62.7	37.5	45.8	40.5	46.7	36.4	43.2	31.0		39.4	41.2	30.8	29.0	53.85
ATL	40.08	40.3		51.3	33.3	34.3	36.2	33.3		27.0	43.2	45.2	40.0	36.0	48.3	38.0	54.3	41.4	36.6	51.5	31.25
NE	45.56	45.9		42.9	34.1	27.3	17.1	61.8	48.0	43.3	50.9	57.1	56.8	52.2	43.2			47.8	54.5	63.0	33.33	41.2
DET	49.28	48.5		42.9	46.9	45.8	63.3	45.7	42.3	51.2	36.4		60.7	63.6	42.9	55.8	46.4	50.0	52.5	52.2	39.13
SF	51.59	50.3	44.8	57.9	46.5	36.4	43.6	55.6		55.6	43.6	30.8	72.4	66.7	50.0	51.3	50.0	48.4	43.6	64.9	58.33	53.3
DEN	45.99	46.1		34.0	37.5	45.5	46.4	40.0	38.7	33.3	39.6	53.3	44.0		51.4	52.6	66.7	50.8	40.6	52.0	55.32
TB	34.46	33.3	32.4	27.5	34.9	33.3	43.1	30.4	38.9	34.5	30.3		40.9	30.2	41.7	18.8	38.5	32.7	46.4	39.4	27.27	31.6
NO	46.30	48.5		65.8	18.2	52.8	58.5	30.6		45.5	45.2	56.0	41.7	38.5	38.5	40.0	61.1	41.0	42.9	50.0	61.11
HOU	45.37	46.3		45.9	50.0	48.1	55.0	47.8	35.5	39.1	31.3	34.4		50.0	50.0	47.4	39.6	50.0	55.1	51.2	40.91
MIA	40.00	40.8		36.4	26.8	43.3	44.4	20.8	34.6	40.5	40.5	32.4	32.6	47.8	48.5	29.2		57.9	45.5	37.9	60.98
NYJ	42.31	43.0		34.5	66.7	27.3	40.0	43.5		44.4	35.3	30.8	30.8	34.7	53.5	46.4	35.9	51.4	61.2	40.5	42.50
CHI	50.58	48.4		44.1	52.6	38.9	64.3	59.4	53.1	43.2	56.6	55.2		45.2	46.0	55.2	53.3	62.5	48.3	44.4	37.50
PHI	47.21	49.3		22.7	54.5	27.8	35.5	20.0	31.3	56.0	70.4	70.2	59.5	62.8	52.8	54.5		58.2	37.8	56.5		32.1
LAC	38.83	40.0		34.5	28.0	34.9	34.0	30.8	25.9		45.0	42.2	41.5	41.2	36.4	26.7	47.2	56.3	42.9	50.0	42.86
SEA	47.60	46.0		53.8	42.9	45.7	44.1	55.2	36.7	53.1	50.0		32.4	63.2	38.9	39.1	50.0	50.0	55.2	50.0	49.02
DAL	41.62	41.8		18.9	50.8	58.5	57.1	47.1	41.7		43.6	42.3	43.9	35.5	46.2	28.9	38.6	50.0	37.5	31.3	37.93	39.3
BAL	49.21	50.3		51.7	56.7	51.3	48.3	52.0	47.1	42.9		55.8	43.6	50.8	55.3	39.7	50.0	40.0	38.7	58.3	54.55
MIN	44.36	45.5		35.7	57.1	37.5	40.5	42.5	44.0		42.3	48.6	44.8	46.0	37.0	42.9	50.0	55.6	42.9	41.2	45.45
JAX	45.13	45.7		30.8	40.9	56.3	54.5	57.1	38.5		33.3	40.0	57.9	46.7	43.3	58.3	27.8	58.6	47.1	42.9	33.33

Game Script Adjusted Pace


Team	2021NeutralAvg	2020NeutralAvg	NextGame	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19
NYG	58.3	59.6		52.4	55.7	57.7	57.5	65.1	72.7	57.9	61.1	50.6		61.3	51.6	59.4	63.0	53.7	54.1	47.2	53.9
CAR	61.4	55.1		67.4	51.0	59.2	58.8	59.4	64.9	89.8	57.7	58.1	60.9	52.4	59.0		68.4	60.1	54.3	53.8	54.8
LAR	65.5	61.7	66.1	63.3	62.8	72.3	71.1	58.3	74.1	66.7	62.1	60.3	66.2		76.5	62.9	62.4	51.3	72.1	60.0	54.5	48.5
KC	62.8	63.7	66.4	53.0	62.0	73.1	58.4	59.1	67.9	71.8	67.0	67.1	61.2	67.7		62.8	57.1	59.1	55.5	55.1	65.2	64.9
TEN	56.7	63.6	62.6	60.9	48.8	58.2	52.5	64.1	58.0	50.2	57.3	58.4	57.4	58.3	55.8		53.0	57.3	61.1	53.7	59.2
LV	57.0	59.8		56.3	57.1	60.5	63.8	57.2	58.4	58.2		65.7	47.9	51.9	61.2	54.4	54.8	54.4	53.1	53.6	56.0	54.4
BUF	58.6	59.8	64.8	69.6	64.2	63.6	57.0	64.2	62.4		63.4	56.5	53.7	52.5	49.6		48.7	53.8	61.3	59.6	62.6	54.5
IND	53.2	60.7		44.8	50.7	58.6	46.3	55.0	57.3	52.2	65.4	48.8	55.4	54.7	56.9	51.6		47.9	52.5	52.2	51.0
ARI	65.0	65.7		66.0	53.5	55.9	84.7	65.5	65.2	62.4	91.8	56.2	77.4	53.5		59.4	60.5	55.9	67.2	55.3	52.3	73.8
CIN	54.7	58.6	60.8	56.0	50.9	45.1	50.6	59.8	48.8	59.3	62.7	57.1		53.9	54.8	60.7	53.2	53.7	54.7	65.2	51.1	58.2
PIT	59.9	60.9		58.5	60.3	50.0	57.4	54.4	56.2		63.6	56.9	61.7	64.0	59.1	65.4	56.8	63.5	71.1	62.6	52.2	55.8
GB	54.0	55.5	57.3	51.2	48.3	52.8	61.6	54.7	47.8	57.3	58.0	46.2	54.6	59.0	54.7		55.3	55.1	53.0	59.5
WAS	58.4	61.5		58.7	65.3	54.0	63.4	57.8	63.5	51.2	52.1		52.1	51.6	59.3	49.8	65.4	61.8	69.3	57.9	50.6
CLE	56.3	59.2		55.2	49.1	64.5	54.4	49.0	58.8	51.6	57.0	57.0	64.2	57.3	70.6		52.2	47.7	55.7	95.7	61.9
ATL	59.7	57.7		62.3	54.0	62.6	68.8	68.0		65.2	55.4	61.7	61.2	51.4	57.2	60.4	53.8	54.4	58.5	55.9	56.5
NE	58.4	57.8		57.2	66.7	69.2	57.4	58.2	48.2	66.7	63.3	57.5	57.1	50.7	54.4			52.1	58.8	50.8	63.3	51.2
DET	56.0	59.6		56.0	51.4	53.7	55.0	61.0	55.5	56.7	64.2		61.9	49.0	47.7	62.2	64.9	51.9	48.3	66.6	65.3
SF	56.5	57.1	62.1	56.5	62.1	57.4	58.5	57.0		57.5	65.4	70.6	46.0	49.8	56.0	55.8	48.0	54.2	52.0	52.5	47.5	47.6
DEN	55.5	59.9		55.2	48.9	60.1	59.4	58.3	57.6	47.2	51.6	50.4	61.1		58.6	56.7	54.2	64.0	48.9	57.8	59.1
TB	64.5	63.3	66.6	63.9	71.8	53.1	60.5	59.4	53.7	74.7	63.3		67.0	67.5	63.2	76.0	75.1	66.8	52.0	53.7	67.4	69.9
NO	58.8	58.1		52.2	44.0	57.7	51.7	74.2		62.4	62.1	54.2	55.7	80.3	65.5	60.9	50.4	57.4	53.3	53.5	52.8
HOU	54.9	60.0		65.5	58.1	51.3	48.8	55.2	55.7	47.8	49.6	63.9		58.5	52.5	63.9	53.2	45.6	54.2	51.9	61.7
MIA	60.9	57.2		66.8	68.3	61.9	55.0	60.3	59.9	56.7	55.6	73.6	59.3	54.4	61.0	67.0		59.3	54.8	65.5	57.2
NYJ	58.2	58.4		57.4	55.5	52.4	57.7	60.2		55.5	52.9	63.8	55.1	63.1	52.1	53.9	75.4	55.4	61.9	62.3	56.2
CHI	56.9	60.1		55.7	51.6	48.8	66.6	54.6	61.5	67.5	53.7	58.1		67.1	59.5	46.9	57.9	53.4	50.5	61.9	62.3
PHI	60.0	60.1		59.7	62.2	56.0	60.9	60.5	60.4	58.1	56.1	67.4	53.5	66.3	64.9	58.8		56.6	59.6	57.3		64.8
LAC	62.6	61.6		62.0	61.4	60.0	66.8	74.1	76.4		57.0	57.7	67.5	59.8	52.2	64.8	60.5	63.5	55.8	71.5	60.3
SEA	58.8	58.4		65.5	60.2	54.5	54.9	60.2	56.3	57.3	55.7		66.4	57.1	58.4	56.5	58.8	56.9	63.4	65.3	71.8
DAL	65.3	65.9		65.9	61.0	61.0	65.2	72.6	60.5		56.1	74.4	64.6	58.6	67.2	71.3	72.2	62.9	65.4	62.0	68.5	78.3
BAL	54.9	57.1		60.0	52.8	52.5	58.7	55.1	52.8	56.8		53.3	49.0	50.2	57.3	50.5	51.5	57.5	66.0	48.7	59.8
MIN	57.7	61.2		48.5	54.5	63.0	58.4	53.1	64.2		60.0	55.2	56.5	61.6	65.1	54.7	64.8	55.1	50.7	49.8	55.1
JAX	58.9	58.0		64.6	60.7	64.6	57.4	54.4	58.7		56.8	56.0	57.7	54.5	64.1	62.3	49.4	64.0	57.4	52.1	47.0

The team rushing percentage is simply the ratio of rushing plays to the sum of rushing and passing plays. Penalties and special teams plays aren’t included in this metric. The average column is the total percentage of plays that were rushing plays throughout the season. The data for each week is also included to help make observations about recent trends.

Our pace statistics are measured in plays run per 30 minutes of possession in a neutral game script. While most teams play quickly within the 2-minute warning or when playing catchup, there’s a large range of pace between NFL teams in neutral game scripts. The data for each week can help determine how big changes like a QB switch impact the team’s pace.

To create the Awesemo NFL Projections, we take into account the matchup and account for likely game scripts and add back in the plays that are disregarded in the creation of the neutral game-script statistics. This includes the fact that teams that are ahead in NFL games tend to rush at a higher rate and play at a slower pace. Personnel changes and likely strategic changes are also accounted for. These full-game projections are included in the NextGame column.

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NFL Advanced Stats – Game Script Adjusted Rush % and Pace

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