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Awesemo’s Top NFL DFS StacksPremium content

Alex Baker

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One of the critical skills to success in DFS tournaments is the management of the strength of your lineup to get a high score vs. the popularity of the players you’re selecting. To help with that task, I created the top stacks tool, which aggregates my rankings or projections and compares them to the ownership for that week. For this I only considered passing, because that’s where you can pick up points from your quarterback and his receiver at the same time.

This week, I changed the format of the Top Stacks to more accurately determine which quarterback is the best to build your lineups around. The top stack probability represents the chance that a quarterback + one or two skill position players will be the highest scoring combination when considering QB passing/rushing and WR/TE/RB receiving only. I found this was the best way to predict what quarterback stack will be the best because adding rushing makes outlier performances from running backs make his quarterback look good but really you would want a different quarterback if the running back runs for several touchdowns.

If the probability of your team stack being the best of the week is higher than their quarterback’s ownership, it indicates a situation where a stack is undervalued (or overpriced) compared to their potential that week. Keep in mind that not everyone is stacking, so the amount of people with your stack will be lower than the quarterback ownership.

Legend: Top Stack: The probability that the QB + receiver combo will be the highest scoring of the week. I averaged the probabilities for top scoring with one receiver and two receivers together. Skill Sal: Average salary of skill position players weighted by ownership. Value: Top Stack % points per dollar of salary spent.

Last Update: 2 months ago

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Alex is better known to fantasy players by his handle "Awesemo" from seeing him in every big tournament in the industry. Playing poker professionally from 2009-2015, he heard that daily fantasy was the next big game picking up steam, and he quickly saw the potential of the relatively new game. Growing his bankroll from 2015-2016, he made a big step in 2017 by claiming the #1 overall ranking on RotoGrinders for the year. After completing his primary objective, he was looking for what's next. Attending dozens of fantasy events, Alex realized that everyone was repeating the same story: wanting to be a great DFS player while holding down a full-time job. He realized that the resources available to fantasy players while great weren't enough to help hobbyists get to the level of competing with the top pros. Having met Tom Kennedy during the FanDuel Scottish Open, the two decided to take on the realm of fantasy content along with co-founder Eddie Lai. Alex creates his own projections for each sport he plays, publishing rankings derived directly from them updated for each major slate. He also writes strategy content for how to become a better DFS player in his Game Plan series. You can contact Alex by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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9 Comments

9 Comments

  1. Avatar

    randers

    November 9, 2019 at 9:05 am

    AZ on a bye for this tool?

    • Alex Baker

      Alex Baker

      November 9, 2019 at 9:44 am

      Sorry, haven’t updated it yet for Week 10. Check back this afternoon!

  2. Avatar

    joey1218

    November 23, 2019 at 10:12 am

    So above when you say a stack is overpriced, do you mean if the top stack % is higher than the qb ownership % then the Qb stack is better than if the ownership is higher then the top stack %? Also, do you have a cutoff number for the value rating where you won’t touch a stack under a certain low-value # ?

    • Alex Baker

      Alex Baker

      November 23, 2019 at 4:09 pm

      I threw in the value column to try to account for the fact that higher priced stacks should have a higher chance of being the top stack, but it seems like the best choices tend to be the best values as well.

  3. Avatar

    randers

    November 23, 2019 at 12:43 pm

    Seattle on a FanDuel Bye Week (wk 12)?

    • Alex Baker

      Alex Baker

      November 23, 2019 at 4:07 pm

      Just updated it for week 12! Sorry about the late update this week.

  4. Avatar

    palmster25

    December 28, 2019 at 9:40 am

    Thanks for the stacks info! Can you check the Yahoo data?…looks like there could be a data error for WASH…!

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