It’s an early contender for game of the year as the undefeated Steelers head to Nashville to face an unbeaten Titans team fresh off a thrilling overtime victory in week 6. Which team will emerge victorious in this battle of AFC behemoths? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 7 NFL DFS and NFL Daily Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Steelers-Titans NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.
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NFL Daily Fantasy Football + NFL DFS Matchups Column for Week 7
Pittsburgh Steelers (26.5) at Tennessee Titans (26) – 1:00 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh Passing Game
The Steelers are 5-0 after a week 6 whooping of their division-rival Browns, and Ben Roethlisberger barely had to do any work. His 22 pass attempts and 14 completions were by far his lowest totals of the year (he’d thrown at least 32 times in every game prior), but it was Roethlisberger’s fifth straight contest with between 6.6 and 7.6 yards per attempt. Adjusted for turnovers, sacks and touchdowns, Roethlisberger’s yards per attempt are even more impressive; he now ranks in the top 10 among quarterbacks in adjusted yards per attempt this season. Even after his one-touchdown, 162-yard passing performance in week 6, Roethlisberger continues to be above league average in fantasy points per game, clean-pocket completion percentage, and true completion percentage. He’s even third up to third in true passer rating. The deep shots may not be there like they had been in the past (Roethlisberger ranks 19th in deep attempts), but his surrounding cast is above average at nearly every skill position, particular amidst the breakout of wideout Chase Claypool. Claypool has added two rushing touchdowns on top of his four receiving scores, making the Steelers uniquely positioned for offensive success against Tennessee. With a quarterback ready and able to distribute the ball accurately and efficiently, there’s a potential for Roethlisberger to put up huge points this weekend after ranking outside the top 20 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring a week ago.
This week, the Steelers will likely be compelled to keep pace with a tenacious Tennessee offense that’s put up 42 points in back-t0-back contests. Should they be forced to air the ball out, they shouldn’t have a particularly difficult time, as Tennessee ranks in the bottom five in yards allowed per pass attempt. There will be an added importance in finishing drives for Pittsburgh, and in that regard Roethlisberger has been fantastic. He ranks sixth in the NFL in true drive success rate and fourth in expected points added per play. He’ll need to remain efficient against a Tennessee team that thrives on “bending but not breaking,” ranking exactly league average in points allowed per play in spite of ranking well below average in the yardage department.
Another added complexity in projecting this game is Roethlisberger’s varied target distribution. In week 6, James Washington was the surprise leader in target share, the third different receiver to lead the team in target share over the last four games. Since week 3, Claypool has led the team in air yards share, with presumed No. 1 option JuJu Smith-Schuster in an astonishing fifth place behind steady contributor Eric Ebron, who’s seen between four and seven targets in four straight games, and Diontae Johnson, the team’s true weighted opportunity share leader. Only one player (Claypool in week 5) has received more than seven targets in a game over the Steelers’ last three games. If Johnson is able to return to the lineup this week, the most likely distribution of targets is Johnson, then Claypool and then Smith-Schuster, a major reversal from week 6. The Titans have the 10th-worst pass coverage grade in the league, so there are likely going to be holes in the defense. Unfortunately for fantasy gamers, determining weekly opportunity leaders in this offense remains far from a sure thing.
It’s worth mentioning that there’s a non-zero chance that the Steelers defense, despite the loss of Devin Bush, remains the dominant force in this game and will keep the Titans scoring to a minimum. If that’s the case, we’ll likely be in for a day from the Steelers similar to week 6 — efficient but without the necessary volume for a solid fantasy output. If this happens, expect this game to finish well under its Vegas total, making this game essentially fadeable from a DFS perspective. Again, it’s not the most likely scenario for this game, as this game also has many shootout signals, but it’s worth keeping in mind as fantasy gamers begin to create lineups this weekend.
Pittsburgh Rushing Game
Even in the midst of a blowout win, James Conner still received his second-highest share of team rushes of the season last weekend, earning 54% of the attempts, compared to Benny Snell’s 16% and Claypool’s 5%. With the game out of reach for Cleveland, the Steelers also were able to use a bit more of Anthony McFarland, who played on 10% of snaps for the just the second time this season, earning three carries and a target. Conner is a particularly interesting option this weekend, especially if the game leans closer toward the shootout that the Vegas total implies. Conner has the added benefit of having an advantageous matchup (the Titans are 26th in yards per attempt allowed), and running nearly no risk of being phased out of their top-15 opportunity share (injury not withstanding). He’s a great pivot off of the higher-owned running backs on the slate this weekend.
Tennessee Passing Game
The Titans continued their impressive start to their 2020 campaign on the back of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who now ranks fifth in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) and first in the NFL in expected points added per play and EPA success rate. Week 6 marked Tannehill’s third top-10 fantasy scoring output among quarterbacks in five games and his fourth inside the top 15. He’s top 10 in passing touchdowns, adjusted yards per attempt and red zone completion percentage. If it weren’t for his freak-of-nature running back (and maybe Russell Wilson), there’d be more clamoring for Tannehill as an MVP candidate. He would do quite a bit to help his case with an explosive performance against the Steelers defense, which annihilated Baker Mayfield, pressuring him on 44% of his dropbacks and forcing him into a passer rating of 2.8. This phase of the game appears to be a distinct disadvantage for Tennessee, as they rank inside the bottom five in team pass block grade, while the Steelers rank No. 1, by a large margin, in team pass rush grade. The ability for Tannehill and company to move the ball as they’ve become accustomed to likely hinges on his ability to be kept upright much better than than the Browns kept up Mayfield, which is made all the more difficult due to the season-ending injury to Pro Bowl offensive lineman Taylor Lewan. The threat of Derrick Henry rushing won’t necessarily stop the relentless pass rush (and is also made more difficult with Lewan’s absence), though it certainly has a chance to help. Henry breaking a big play early could go a long way to giving Tannehill the space and time he needs to operate in the pocket.
A.J. Brown has been spectacular since returning to the field in week 5. He now ranks in the top 20 among receivers in true weighted opportunity share, and his 16 targets over the past two weeks rank 19th. The Steelers haven’t been as lights out in the secondary, relying primarily on their superstar defensive line, and ranks just above average as a defense overall (via PFF). Still, they’re third toughest in the league in yards per play allowed at 4.9. But with most opposing offenses trying to beat Steelers through the air, and assuming Brown gets his typical looks, there’s no reason he can’t continue to produce at the level he has been over the past two weeks. He’s up to the 11th-best wide receiver in fantasy points per game.
The Titans will also get back Corey Davis, who was activated off the COVID-19 list this week (as Adam Humphries was last week), and are hoping to have tight end Jonnu Smith (who exited week 6’s win with an ankle injury) back as well, making it the Titans’ first game since week 1 with their full weaponry at the skill positions. Davis had been enjoying an excellent start to the season, averaging five receptions on 6.3 targets for 69 yards through the Titans’ first three games. His best game of 2020 (and highest target share) came with Brown on the field in week 1, so Brown’s return does not at all preclude Davis from succeeding in this spot. If the previously mentioned Smith can’t go, it could be another productive day for backup Anthony Firkser, who ranks second among all tight ends in targets per snap, and posting 113 yards and a score in Smith’s stead. Titans tight ends have scored six touchdowns in the team’s first five games. Pittsburgh isn’t typically a game where fantasy gamers should be considering auxiliary pieces, but it’s worth noting that Kalif Raymond has led the team in air yards over the last three games and is sixth on the team with nine targets over that span. His average depth of target over 20, with an equal workload to Adam Humphries, Raymond is a splash play waiting to happen. Even against a tough Pittsburgh secondary, Raymond is far from the worst dart-throw tournament play this weekend.
Tennessee Rushing Game
A week after this column warned NFL DFS players to disregard the “fade Derrick Henry” talk, Henry faces by far his toughest opponent yet in the menacing Steelers defensive line, who rank league-best by a substantial margin in adjusted line yards allowed as well as in percentage of runs that fail to get back to the line of scrimmage. The Steelers front seven is impressive, but it took a huge hit last weekend with the season-ending loss of linebacker Devin Bush (who wore the helmet headset as Pittsburgh’s de facto defensive quarterback). Losing Bush likely hurts Pittsburgh in areas it’s difficult to quantify. Another interesting note, the Steelers line ranks 27th in open field yards allowed, and according to via Football Outsiders, “a team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in Open Field Yards has a strong defensive line but its linebackers and secondary have difficulty in pursuit and tackling.”
Henry is the type of running back that makes linebackers and secondaries who struggle in pursuit pay, and pay dearly. It’s no guarantee, but there’s a possibility Henry becomes a strong contrarian play, as fading him will likely be en vogue this weekend, as fantasy gamers see the surface level detractors (chasing last weeks points, no receiving floor, Steelers difficult run defense) but ignore the fundamental truths of the player. Without Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey or Nick Chubb healthy, Henry is the best rushing running back on the planet and is a threat for 150-plus yards in any game he plays
Prediction: Steelers 26, Titans 24.
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