The Bengals have stumbled out of the gate and just faced their worst loss of the season in week 5. The Colts looked completely flat against the Browns in week 5. Which team can turn things around in week 6? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 6 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Bengals – Colts NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.
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Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Column for Week 6
Cincinnati Bengals (18.75) at Indianapolis Colts (27.75) – 1:00 p.m. ET
Cincinnati Passing Game
2020 first overall pick Joe Burrow had his most disappointing game of the season in week 5. Against division rival Baltimore, Burrow completed only 63% of a season-low 30 pass attempts for a mere 183 yards (6.1 yards per attempt) and zero touchdowns on a day that included multiple fumbles and an interception as well. With Sunday’s disappointing 3 total points scored, the Bengals now move to the mid-20s in both expected points per drive and expected points added per play. Burrow ranks 34th among qualified quarterbacks in passer air conversion ratio (PACR), so the underlining metrics aren’t any kinder than the box score. The Bengals’ matchup in week six isn’t particularly kind either, as the Colts rank third in the NFL in PFF’s coverage rating and fourth as a defensive unit overall. Though they are expected to be without Pro Bowl linebacker Darius Leonard, Indianapolis still has Xavier Rhodes as their primary cornerback. In the midst of a resurgent season, after a disappointing final year in Minnesota, PFF rates Rhodes as the sixth best cornerback in the NFL this year.
One thing that’s less clear, however, is whom Rhodes should prioritize guarding, as there certainly appears to be have been a changing of the guard at the wide receiver position in Cincinnati. After being among the league leaders in targets and air yards after two weeks, A.J. Green has taken a backseat to Tyler Boyd, who now ranks in the top 30 of all wide receivers in true target share, as well as rookie Tee Higgins, who leads the team in true weighted opportunity share, ranking just outside the top 30 overall players in that metric. Higgins and Boyd have seen 15 targets and 14 targets, respectively, over the last two weeks. During that same span, Green has only seen six targets and is now dealing with a re-aggravation of his preseason hamstring injury. He’s practicing on a limited basis this week, but it’s important to note he’s been less utilized than even tight end Drew Sample over the last two weeks, along with running back Joe Mixon. This is a clear sign, at the very least, of Green’s waning health, or worse, his waning ability.
Even beyond Rhodes, the Colts defense has been rock solid in every phase of the game. When examining the team’s fantasy points allowed over opponent average, the most advantageous position group to target (for the offense), according to the metric, is the tight end position — where the Colts rank seventh best in the NFL. Facing all other positions, the Colts rank among the top five most difficult matchups for opposing offenses. It could be another long day for the Bengals offense.
Cincinnati Rushing Game
One of the most exciting developments for any backfield has been Mixon overtaking Giovani Bernard almost entirely in the passing game. Over the last three weeks, Mixon has out-rushed Bernard 17-to-0, 25-to-2 and 24-to-0 (that’s been consistent for much of the year), but Mixon began the year getting out-targeted by Bernard 5-to-2 and 7-to-4. In week 3, that trend began to reverse, first with Mixon tying Bernard with three targets in week 3, and now with Mixon commanding 14 targets, to Bernard’s 2, over the last two weeks. Fantasy gamers can begin to trust Mixon in all game flow situations, as he’s become a lock for targets if the Bengals are playing from behind. If the Bengals’ offense finds itself surprisingly ahead, Mixon can be penciled in for 25 total opportunities. It is nowhere near the surest bet, since the matchup is so difficult (the Colts are fourth best in points allowed per play), but as just the 13th-highest-salary running back on the slate, Mixon has significant upside relative to salary. Awesemo’s ownership projections currently have Mixon as the 11th-highest-utilized running back on the main slate, so you won’t be alone betting on a big day from the Bengals’ main back.
Indianapolis Passing Game
While calling the beginning of the Colts’ season a disaster would be hyperbole (the team is 3-2, after all), Indianapolis has barely taken advantage of a soft early-season schedule that included the Jaguars, Vikings and Jets (who are combined 2-13 to begin 2020), somewhat masking their severely depleted receiving corps as well as inefficient play from their veteran signal-caller Philip Rivers. Rivers has yet to throw more than one touchdown in a game and has thrown at least as many interceptions as touchdowns in 60% of his starts as a Colt. And although the Bengals’ record may not reflect it, they’re no slouch defensively, ranking second in the NFL in PFF’s team coverage grade and 16th in overall defensive grade. In fantasy points allowed versus opponent average, it’s more of the same — the Bengals rank at or above league average (less advantageous for offenses) against all skill positions, as well as quarterbacks. With Rivers struggling with his accuracy in general (he ranks 24th among quarterbacks in clean pocket completion percentage) and operating a generally conservative passing attack (22nd in air yards per pass attempt), there are likely higher-upside plays at the position around Rivers’ salary. Awesemo’s projection for Rivers is not particularly strong relative to his top-12 salary among quarterbacks.
If there was a singular encouraging sign from the Colts’ week 5 loss to Cleveland, it was the willingness to pepper receiver T.Y. Hilton with targets. It was his first game of the 2020 season with 10 targets (a first for any Colts player), but in that context, Hilton’s 69 yards receiving was, once again, a severe disappointment. Still, with the low-volume nature of this offense and with Rivers choosing to spread the ball around to different players as secondary and tertiary options each game, Hilton is the only player fantasy gamers can trust for five looks in this offense, no matter what the game flow looks like. That isn’t all too encouraging of a floor, even for Hilton. Tight end Trey Burton, who spent the first three weeks of the season on injured reserve, has now seen 11 targets over the past three weeks, second most on the team. No other Colts’ skill position player averages 4.5 targets per game, and with Rivers known to lean on his running backs as receiving options, betting on auxiliary weapons like Zach Pascal (76th among receivers in true weighted opportunity share) or tight end Jack Doyle (48th among tight ends) seems like an extremely thin play.
Indianapolis Rushing Game
Although it is true that the Colts continue to deploy three running backs on a weekly basis, the backfield undoubtedly belongs to Jonathan Taylor. Over the past two weeks, Taylor has received 27% and 30% of the Colts’ opportunities despite only playing on 55% of the team’s snaps. Nyheim Hines has commanded more targets than Taylor, but he hasn’t received more than 18% of the team’s total opportunities in either of the last two weeks. Jordan Wilkins saw his share of opportunities shrivel from an average of 16.5% from weeks 3 to 4 all the way down to 2% in week 5.
While it would be nice for fantasy gamers if Taylor had more of a receiving floor (See Cincinnati Rushing Game, above), Taylor remains a solid volume bet in a game the Colts will likely be leading down the stretch. As a home favorite running back, he’s a fundamentally sound play, even if the Vegas total is slightly less than ideal. Awesemo’s projection for Taylor is even better than his 11th-highest salary at the running back position implies. Even Hines, priced in the mid-30s among all running backs in salary, presents an intriguing pivot-play off of Taylor, especially with a projected ownership just above 1.5%.
Prediction: Bengals 28, Colts 27.
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