Matt Savoca’s Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Column returns for Week 13 of the NFL season. In it, he goes through every single game on the main slate on Sundays for your season-long fantasy football lineups on Yahoo, ESPN and CBS and your NFL DFS builds on DraftKings and FanDuel. We have 11 games on tap for Week 13, so let’s dive into the action.
Week 13 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown for NFL DFS
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Early Games
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Afternoon Games
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (48.5) Los Angeles Rams (25.75) at Arizona Cardinals (22.75)
Los Angeles Rams Passing Game
Quarterback Jared Goff came crashing back to earth after a fantastic Week 11 versus the Buccaneers, looking downright dreadful against the division-rival 49ers. With the Ram’s offense derailed by two killer first-half fumbles, Goff was unable to generate enough offense to get Los Angeles back into the game. Instead, he relied on missed field goals (by the 49ers), a breakaway run to set up a scoring drive and a defensive score to get back into the game. Those just happen to be three of the most high-variance, unpredictable events in all of football. Helming the offense, however, Goff looked abysmal, completing just 61% of his 31 attempts for 198 yards, his second-worst yardage total of the season. Goff’s 6.4 yards per attempt is his fifth game in his last six contests where he’s passed for more than 5 yards per attempt but fewer than 7. That’s peak mediocrity. Yes, he interjected that streak with a three-touchdown, 376-yard performance against Tampa Bay, but much of the damage in that game was done by his receivers. Goff had 97 more completed passing yards than attempted air yards in Week 12, without that to buoy his stats, this week, he floundered, throwing two interceptions for an atrocious five fantasy points. That type of performance is absolutely enough to give fantasy gamers significant pause when considering Goff at his $5,800 salary, 11th highest among active quarterbacks. While the Cardinals’ rank in the bottom 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks, Goff still is the 16th best quarterback on the slate in expected fantasy points per game, the discrepancy between his expected output and his salary-based expectation is enough to make him a fade this week for this article’s, even in a decent matchup. He doesn’t jump off the page in the Awesemo projections, either.
Goff gets a little more interesting in a stack, granted, as both of his primary weapons, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods have relatively modest salaries compared to their ceilings in this matchup (despite a relatively low Vegas total, both of these teams rank in the top six in game-adjusted pace of play. If we see efficient play early, it could lead to plenty of plays and points, for both sides). At the 15th and 17th-highest salaries among wideouts, you could do much worse for a duo that has averaged just shy of 20 combined targets per game over their last three weeks. Despite ranking a modest eighth in top stack probability on Awesemo.com, there’s some sneaky upside, especially if the team looks more like the Week 11 versions of themselves. If you’re looking for value play in the passing attack, Josh Reynolds is absolutely your man. Over the last three weeks, Reynolds leads the team in total air yards and ranks second in true weighted opportunity share. He has 22 targets in that span, compared to Cooper Kupp’s 25, and he’s only $4,200 this weekend, outside the top 40 active wide receivers. Even with the Cardinals most susceptible to secondary receivers rather than tertiary (which should also be a slight boost to Woods – he’s the preferred option if choosing between him and Kupp this weekend), Reynolds’ salary discount for a primary piece of the Rams’ offense is too good to pass up. Reynolds makes sense in tournaments as part of a Ram’s stack, as a run-back option for a Cardinals stack or even on his own.
Editor’s Note:
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Los Angeles Rams Rushing Game
The Rams continue to trot out a contemptuous three-headed monster of running backs, much to the chagrin of fantasy gamers everywhere, as this backfield (which ranks below average in adjusted rush rate but top 10 in pace of play) would be quite valuable, and much more predictable, if fantasy gamers only had to decide between two quality backs. But we can’t have nice things in 2020, just like we can’t quite figure out who the lead back for the Rams will be down the stretch. Yes, it’s true that Cam Akers had the run of the day and, for the second time in two weeks, led the backfield in total yards. But Darrell Henderson continues to see more of the carries, and Malcolm Brown continues to lead the team in targets. Despite obvious signs of talent from their second-round pick Akers, the Rams’ offense doesn’t appear to be in any rush to fade Henderson or Brown into the background any time soon. This week, against their division rivals, all three backs have a salary between $4,000 (Brown) and $4,500 (Akers), which at least leaves room for upside compared to salary-based expectations. But with the Cardinals allowing league-average yards per carry on the ground and sixth best in the league in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs over their last five games, the Awesemo projections aren’t bullish on any player but Henderson, who’s now ranked behind Akers in salary, while continuing to see a higher percentage of team opportunities. Even then, Henderson isn’t a player you need to be targeting in tournaments, as his chances of having a “have to have it to win a tournament” type of score are low but could make some sense as a low-salary option in cash, allowing maximum flexibility at other roster positions. Akers still has a less-than-zero chance of taking over the backfield entirely at some point, but in general, utilize these backs sparingly in your daily fantasy football lineups this weekend.
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Arizona Passing Game
Kyler Murray’s streak of 10 straight games as a top-10 fantasy quarterbacks is over, as the Patriots’ escaped Week 12 with a win and continued their mystique of shutting down a team’s best player. Murray had a day to forget, however, throwing for just 5 yards per attempt on his 34 passes and finishing with no touchdowns, through the air or on the ground, for the first time this season. Murray’s 31 rushing yards saved him from disaster, but his 8.9 fantasy points sunk every Week 12 lineup he was a part of, especially at the salary it cost to acquire his services. A major factor in Week 12’s loss was Arizona’s inability to hold back the New England pass rush. Murray was hurried a season-high 10 times (his previous season worst was six), and Murray’s quietly a poor decision maker under pressure, preferring to tuck and run. He ranks 32nd in pressured completion percentage but sixth in the NFL in completion percentage with a clean pocket. The Patriots provided the blueprint for slowing Murray down: get pressure and shut down running lanes. It will be fascinating to see if the Rams, who already rank best in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt and fourth in points allowed per play, can match New England’s success from a week ago. Murray still ranks first in fantasy points scored over expected per game after Week 12. In this tough divisional matchup and still dealing with lingering effects of a shoulder injury to his throwing arm, the Awesemo projections are slightly bearish on Murray compared to salary-based expectations.
We’ll also see plenty of one-on-one battles between Jalen Ramsey and DeAndre Hopkins. It would be downright shocking if the Rams, who have used Ramsey in shadow coverage against two players: D.K. Metcalf and Mike Evans, don’t attempt to do the same this week with Hopkins. For fantasy gamers considering Hopkins this weekend, it’s certainly not impossible for Hopkins to hit his ceiling in this spot. But Ramsey should be as feared as ever as a cornerback, ranking 13th in the NFL at his position in PFF’s defensive grade and part of a defensive unit that’s allowing the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers in the NFL. While the salary has moved down slightly from past weeks, Hopkins is still the fourth-highest-salary wideout on the main slate. In an extremely difficult matchup, the Awesemo projections aren’t excited at all about Hopkins – he’s always fine to bet on in tournaments or as part of a (high-salary) stack, but there are likely safer picks at his position in his salary range this weekend. In fact, the projections for all Cardinals’ players across the board seem drastically affected by the defensive prowess of the Rams’ this season and the concern this game could turn into a low-scoring slugfest. It might make the most sense, then, to just take the cheap value in Andy Isabella, who’s salary places him outside the top 60 wide receivers and had a season-high six targets a week ago. It might just be a week to hold off Cardinals’ receivers in daily fantasy football lineups.
Arizona Rushing Game
The Cardinals, who most of the public consider to be a pass-first team, quietly have the ninth-highest game-adjusted rush rate in the league. With Kenyan Drake fully healthy, that’s resulted in a whopping 19.7 opportunities per game for their workhorse back, including 26 looks last week in their last-second loss to the Patriots. Even backup Chase Edmonds has seen 11 opportunities or four targets in each of his last three games. Though Kyler Murray remains a constant threat to vulture red zone and goal line carries (he’s been a masterful rusher near the goal line), both backs carry massive upside in the Cardinals’ fast paced offense. The matchup this week, however, doesn’t look all that great for either player, as the Rams have completely shut down opposing rushing attacks, ranking top 10 in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position and sixth in yards allowed per carry. That makes Drake tough to trust even in a bell-cow role. While the Awesemo projection isn’t fully fading Drake, it looks like he’ll make a better tournament play than a cash option. Edmonds, now just $4,900, 30th among running backs, makes sense as a value option at the position, especially if fantasy gamers believe the Cardinals spend a majority of this game playing from behind. Edmonds’ median projection slides in more than five slots higher than his salary-based ranking.
Prediction: Cardinals 28, Rams 27
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