Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Detroit Lions (24.5) at Minnesota Vikings (28.5)
Detroit Passing Game
The Lions were surprisingly blown out by the Colts last weekend, getting completely outplayed on both sides of the ball in the first half, to the point where by the time the ball was kicked off to begin the third, the Colts already had a 90% win probability. Even though the Lions’ play improved slightly in the second half, it never sunk below 70% for the rest of the afternoon. Matthew Stafford’s numbers ultimately looked just fine despite the 20-point loss, tossing for 336 yards on 42 attempts (his 57% completion percentage was his second-lowest mark in that metric this season) and tossing three scores en route to being the third-highest-scoring quarterback in all of week 8. The Lions offense, whether forced by game script or due (at least a partial) change of identity, have been leaning much more heavily on Stafford as of late. They now rank in the top 12 of all teams in pass plays per game, and Stafford is eighth in total attempted air yards (sixth in air yards per attempt)…
…. And it all comes to screeching halt. Stafford has been placed on the Covid-19 list as of Wednesday. This is after No. 1 receiving option, Kenny Golladay, has been labeled as “out indefinitely” with a hip injury. In short, there couldn’t be two bigger blows to this passing attack. This team may simply be a full-fade in week 9, regardless of matchup quality.
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In the wake of Golladay’s injury, the main beneficiary, unsurprisingly, was tight end T.J. Hockenson, who commanded a team-high 10 targets and was second on the team with 65 receiving yards. Much more surprising was the heavy usage of Marvin Hall, who commanded seven targets, tied for second on the team, and a team-high 115 air yards. He managed to produce 113 receiving yards in the Lions’ ferocious second-half comeback efforts. Hall could absolutely be a one-hit wonder, and the Awesemo projections certainly prefer Hockenson or fellow seven-target earner Marvin Jones, but Hall could be a very interesting play if he is in fact the deep-passing option with Golladay out of the lineup. The Lions are only league average in deep ball attempts per game, and the accuracy of those deep passes could be anything but high quality if backup Chase Daniel is at the helm. It’s at least worth mentioning that the Vikings are one of the worst teams in the NFL in both yards allowed per pass attempt and points allowed per play. Even without their star wideout, the matchup against the middling Minnesota defense is an exploitable one for an average quarterback. The issue here is that Daniel likely isn’t one. If he’s forced to start, fantasy gamers don’t need to take advantage. Expect the 53-point Vegas total that this game began the week at to come crashing down by the time you read this sentence. Without Stafford or Golladay, this could get ugly.
Detroit Rushing Game
With the Lions forced to pass most of the second half in week 8, the Lions’ running backs were all relegated to the background in favor of the Lions’ passing attack, which also didn’t fare that well. And now they may be without their starting quarterback in week 9. Still, it was the third straight week that D’Andre Swift out-paced Adrian Peterson in opportunities. In fact, when observing only quality opportunities (targets and goal line rushes), Swift has commanded over 70% of such looks, a strong indicator of Detroit’s desire to utilize their talented rookie in high-leverage situations despite Kerryon Johnson vulturing a score in week 8. The Vikings defense, despite keeping the Packers (relatively) at bay in week 8, still rank among the league’s worst units in both expected points allowed per drive and expected points subtracted per play. They are no better than league average in yards allowed per carry over the last three weeks. With Swift the 23rd-highest running back on the main slate, he makes a ton of sense as a player who could easily be in the top 15 running backs in opportunity. Needless to say, the projections on Awesemo.com this weekend love Swift relative to salary, and fantasy gamers should absolutely be considering him in daily fantasy football lineups.
Minnesota Passing Game
The Vikings came away with a win over their bitter rival Green Bay in week 8 without much need for major contributions from their passing attack. Kirk Cousins, partially hindered by blustery conditions at Lambeau Field, throwing an incredibly low 14 times but still managing 160 yards, good for 11.4 yards per attempt. In fact, it’s Cousins’ fifth game in seven outings where Cousins has topped 9 yards per attempt. He leads the NFL in that metric. And in what is surely good news for fantasy gamers considering Cousins this weekend, Detroit ranks among the 12 worst teams in the NFL in yards allowed per attempt and points allowed per play. The bad news is that Cousins’ salary still ranks among the top 15 quarterbacks on the main slate despite him only reaching a top-12 mark just three times this season. The Awesemo projections, due to matchup and concerns over lack of raw volume, are bearish on Cousins compared to his salary-based expectation.
The lack of passing volume essentially eradicated the value of Minnesota’s talented receiving duo, led by Adam Thielen, last weekend. His four targets were a season low. In fact, Thielen has seen just nine targets in the Vikings’ last two games after seeing more than nine targets in each of weeks 4 and 5. Rookie Justin Jefferson, fresh off a career-high 12 targets and 166 receiving yards in week 6, also saw just four looks, his lowest total since week 4. It was essentially a week off for the Vikings’ receivers, as no one outside of the backfield managed even 30 yards receiving, a rather impressive feat for a winning team. But such things are possible when Dalvin Cook is doing all the heavy lifting, as he was a week ago (see below). Thielen still ranks second overall in true weighted opportunity share, and Jefferson isn’t far behind, ranking within the top 25 in the same metric. The Awesemo projections see the difference between these two receivers as razor thin, at least in week 9. So factoring in salary, Jefferson looks like the much more appealing option. Despite Thielen now possessing a salary outside the top 10 receivers on the main slate, the projections still don’t see him as a value. Considering he’s projected as the seventh-highest-owned wide receiver on the slate, he might be a stay-away option unless creating a game stack that utilizes Jefferson and Cousins as well. There’s little to consider in terms of auxiliary options, but fantasy gamers digging deep for contrarian GPP plays could do worse than right end Irv Smith, who’s projection outpaces is TE24 salary and carries significant upside, commanding the second-highest red zone target share for the Vikings over their last three games.
Minnesota Rushing Game
Cook was the slate breaker in week 8, recording 226 total yards, including a career-high 163 yards rushing, and scoring four touchdowns in one of the highest-scoring fantasy outputs in modern history. Over his last four starts, Cook has seen 22, 27, 29 and 33 opportunities. He’s the most valuable running back north of Alvin Kamara when healthy, and even though his salary puts him among the top two running backs on the slate, Cook should be a smash play against a Detroit rushing defense that ranks just league average against in yards allowed per carry and 17th in run DVOA. There will be some fantasy gamers who see this as an ideal moment to fade Cook (he’s projected to be the most utilized running back on the slate), but they do so at their own peril, as the Awesemo projections rank Cook as the highest-scoring running back on the slate. Expect the Vikings to simply lean on Cook until their week 9 victory’s in hand, especially if the Lions are without Stafford.
Prediction: Without Stafford: Vikings 24, Lions 9. If Stafford plays: Vikings 27, Lions 21.
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love the article matt! keep up the good work brother