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BOOM vs. BUST: Top NFL Daily Fantasy Picks to Roster & Avoid for Week 15

Eric Lindquist

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NFL DFS DraftKings FanDUel lineup optimizer picks projections today tonight WEek 15 fantasy football lineups advice 2021 Aaron Rodgers free expert tips packers Aaron Rodgers

Just like the NBA Boom/Bust Tool before it, the NFL Boom/Bust Tool makes for one of the best and easiest-to-use tools at Awesemo.com. Developed with the help of Alex Baker himself, the Boom/Bust Tool makes it simple to identify under-utilized plays for Sunday’s main slate — as well highlight which plays are most likely to fail. By grouping players based on their probability of putting up a massive score (boom) or the odds of them failing to reach salary-based expectations (bust), it is easy to compare every play on the main slate to their likelihood of making the optimal lineup. With that process in mind, let’s cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions for Week 15 NFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Using this tool is imperative when constructing DFS NFL lineups today.

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Week 15 NFL Daily Fantasy: Boom/Bust Top Plays

Top Quarterback to Boom: Tua Tagovailoa

On this Wild West of NFL DFS slates, finding enough value to pay up for the most raw point projected quarterbacks should be pretty simple. However, with the security and massive upside of spend-ups such as Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams, there is still major viability to working in the cheaper quarterbacks on the board. That makes Tagovailoa an appealing option on the board at just $5,700 on DraftKings with his position-leading 12.6% boom score and a cupcake matchup against the lowly Jets. During the Dolphins’ current four-game winning streak, Tagovailoa has failed to eclipse the 20-fantasy point threshold on any site. But with two multi-touchdown games in his past three, he is starting to show glimpses of potential slate-winning upside.

Top Quarterback to Bust: Aaron Rodgers

At $7,500 on DraftKings, Rodgers is a pretty clear pay-up-to-be-contrarian play. Due to three massive weeks scoring 29-plus fantasy points in each, there could be some inflated ownership by the public player just looking at box scores. But at his high price of the season against a Ravens defense that desperately needs a bounce-back performance after two consecutive lackluster games, the Boom/Bust Tool preaches caution in this spot. In fact, his measly 1.3% boom score and slate-high 57.9% bust chances show just how unlikely it would be for Rodgers to rack up another gargantuan fantasy performance, making him a sub-par play on Sunday’s main slate.

Top Running Back to Boom: James Robinson

With Urban Meyer kicked to the curb, the outlook for the Jaguars’ Sunday game against the Texans has changed drastically in the eyes of bettors and DFS players alike. The expectation is for Trevor Lawrence to get everything he wants from here on out, and having said he would include having James Robinson on the field for every possible play in recent weeks, that should very well be the case. The Boom/Bust Tool certainly buys into that narrative, as Robinson’s whopping 37% boom score is tops of the entire slate, and his sub-10% chances at busting here (8.6% to be exact) shows just how solid of a role Robinson should have under interim head coach Darrell Bevell.

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Top Running Back to Bust: Sony Michel

If Darrell Henderson does not play Sunday, this assessment goes out the window and Michel becomes one of the best plays on the board. But in the event that Henderson is allowed to suit up, many are likely to keep Michel in their lineups based on his torrid play the past two weeks. That could make Michel the most over-owned plays of the day in that event, going from a full workload back to near irrelevance at $5,800 on DraftKings, which is expressed by his current 73.1% bust potential according to the Boom/Bust Tool. The health and safety protocol surrounding the Rams – Seahawks game will be major talking point of this slate, so keep close eye on Henderson’s status for Sunday.

(NOTE: The Rams game has been moved to TUESDAY’S slate.)


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Top Wide Receiver to Boom: Cooper Kupp

This should surprise absolutely no one, as Kupp has been far and away the best fantasy asset of the season. With 10-plus targets in all but one game this season — a game in which he still got nine targets — there is no more dependable a play on a week-to-week basis. At $9,000 on DraftKings, one could argue he is still underpriced, a fact that is expressed by his 25.4% boom chances on his slate-high salary. And with Odell Beckham Jr. and Darrell Henderson in danger of missing Sunday due to COVID-19 protocols, Kupp could be a one-man wrecking crew against a Seahawks secondary allowing a league-worst 278.9 yards passing per game.

(NOTE: The Rams game has been moved to TUESDAY’S slate.)

Top Wide Receiver to Bust: Ja’Marr Chase

With the emergence of Tee Higgins in recent weeks, there could be some that are frustrated by the hit-and-miss nature of Chase’s box scores. Week 14 was certainly a positive for the rookie wideout with 25.3 DraftKings points, but that was his first time eclipsing 13.1 fantasy points since Week 7. That makes the Boom Bust a little wary on the LSU product, giving him a 51.7% bust percentage, although there is some positive leverage to be had by rostering him based on an optimal appearance rate of 9.9% and projected ownership sitting at 7.9%. That makes him an extremely high-risk/high-reward option for Sunday’s slate.

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Take a look at our depth charts, starting lineups and inactive player list. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, DFS NFL rankings, and NFL stacks. We also have showdown projections and NFL single-game ownership projections. View our DraftKings NFL DFS rankings and our FanDuel NFL DFS ownership rankings.
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