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Lions vs. Packers Monday Night Football Showdown Game Breakdown and NFL DFS Picks




Week 5 NFL DFS Strategy Show. Free DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy picks and ownership projections with expert rankings.

Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 2 Monday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 2 Lions vs. Packers Monday Night Football matchup.

Week 2 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks

This week’s Monday night matchup is a battle between two NFC North rivals looking to avoid falling to 0-2. The Lions came into the year with some of the lowest expectations of any squad in the NFL but surprised many by keeping their Week 1 game against San Francisco close. The Packers were thoroughly dismantled by the Saints in their opener, as their typically top-tier offense failed to muster even a single trip to the end zone, and the Green Bay defense allowed Jameis Winston to throw five touchdown passes. The Packers have an implied team total more than 11 points higher than Detroit, so if the result of this game is anything but a blowout for Green Bay at home, it might be time to sound the alarms.

Expect the Packers Offense to Get Back on Track

Over their last five regular-season games, Detroit has been arguably the worst defense in the NFL, ranking dead last in series success rate allowed and opponent pass success rate. This is a recipe for disaster when playing against Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers had one of the highest raw projections of any quarterback heading into Week 2 and has the best combination of floor and ceiling of any player on this slate by a wide margin. Even as the highest salary player on FanDuel, and second-highest salary on DraftKings, Rodgers’ probability of posting the highest fantasy score on the slate makes him the best value tonight. Start cash lineups with Rodgers and simply differentiate in other ways. Rodgers has averaged 284 yards passing and nearly 23 fantasy points in his last four games against Detroit.

The Lions Cannot Stop Davante Adams

Detroit is one of the most poorly constructed defenses in all of football, having ranked dead last in PFF’s team coverage grade in 2020 by a significant margin, nearly 5% worse than any other NFL defenses. They are already dealing with serious injuries, as starting cornerback Jeff Okudah has been lost for the year with a ruptured Achilles. Detroit has one player inside PFF’s top 50 coverage grades, A.J. Parker, an undrafted rookie who played just 11 snaps in coverage a week ago. The Awesemo projection for Davante Adams rivals Rodgers, particularly on DraftKings, making the Rodgers/Adams stack a no-brainer when generating an optimal lineup. It might make sense to fade one (or both) of Rodgers or Adams in tournaments, but that is a risky move.

Goff and the Lions Will Pass Early and Often

There were more positive plays than expected for the Lions offense in Week 1, as they posted 33 points against San Francisco and even had a chance at a game-tying drive late in the fourth quarter. The Lions offense went much more pass-heavy than expected, dropping back 57 times, second most of any team last week. Jared Goff’s seven attempts of 20 or more yards downfield also ranked top three among quarterbacks. Especially in a projected negative game script, Goff should throw a lot again this week against the Packers. Green Bay ranked fourth, just behind the 49ers, in team coverage grade a season ago and has two cornerbacks in PFF top 50 cover grades. That makes Goff a risky play and a mediocre value based on his projection, but the volume should be there for a high ceiling.

Detroit Will Scheme Looks to Running Backs and Tight Ends

If Week 1 is any indicator, the Lions will not be focusing a significant portion of their passing attack on wide receivers this season, and Tyrell Williams will miss this game with concussion symptoms. Goff targeted non-wideouts 54% of the time last week, the most in the NFL, with D’Andre Swift (11 targets), T.J. Hockenson (10) and Jamaal Williams (nine) the main beneficiaries. Goff’s deep targets were surprisingly high last week, but that may have been due to game script, as it appears the bulk of the passing game will come through short-area passes. The Awesemo projections like Swift best of any of those players but see him as better value play on FanDuel than DraftKings. Surprisingly, Hockenson rates as a poor value play due to his top-five salary.

Packers Auxiliary Weapons could be in for a Big Day

Randall Cobb was a non-factor in his first game back with his old squad. He earned just one target but turned that one look into 32 yards. Look for Rodgers to target Cobb a bit more in this game to establish a rhythm. Cobb averaged nearly five targets a game for Houston last year and was fairly efficient on those looks, averaging 12 yards per reception. Robert Tonyan also has a solid chance of exceeding his opportunity totals from a week ago, but his four targets were in line with last season average of 3.7 targets per game in 16 contests. He likely will not be averaging two receiving touchdowns every three games, however, making him a fairly thin play at $6,400. The Awesemo projections suggest taking a look at the lower-salary Packers instead, such as Allen Lazard or backup running back A.J. Dillon, who could see increased opportunity if the game gets out of hand early.

The Bottom Line

When building lineups for tournaments, it will be important to predict a different game flow from the rest of the field. This is made all the more difficult by the fact that most everyone will see this game playing out similarly, with the Packers blowing out the Lions. It is hard to imagine the Packers fully abandoning the passing game, even if they get up multiple scores. But it is equally likely that once up big the Packers will slow down their offense, opting to run out the remainder of the clock with Jones (who is also a fine play on this slate) and Dillon, who could wind up being one of the best plays on the slate if given an increased share.

Check out today's FREE DFS tool of the day

Week 2 Monday Night Football Prediction: Packers 31, Lions 20

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Take a look at our NFL line-ups, depth charts and inactive players. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL picks for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL rankings, and DFS NFL stacking.

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected]

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