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Saints vs. Seahawks Week 7 Monday Night Football Showdown Game Breakdown & NFL DFS Picks




Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 7 Monday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 7 Saints vs. Seahawks Monday Night Football matchup.

Week 7 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks

The 3-2 Saints head west to Seattle to take on the 2-4 Seahawks, still without Russell Wilson and desperately seeking a win in order to stay out of the cellar of the NFC West. New Orleans looked excellent in their 33-22 victory over Washington in Week 5 and is also coming off their bye week. However, the Saints have yet to win back-to-back contests this season, subject to the variability of Jameis Winston. Despite a middling 43-point Vegas total, there is some sneaky shootout potential in this contest, with both defenses ranking at or below average, so it is important to build that offensive upside into Showdown lineups.

Alvin Kamara Is the Lynchpin of the Slate

Kamara’s season has been a bit more up and down, finishing outside the top 24 running backs in fantasy points twice in five contests. However, he is still set to receive the most opportunity in this game by a wide margin. He only received eight carries in Week 2, but since then Kamara has averaged 24.7 opportunities during that span, including four targets, and now ranks third in opportunity share among all running backs. In short, the underlying metrics show that Kamara is back to his top-tier level of opportunity. Even though he has been less efficient on a per-touch basis with Winston under center, Kamara still projects for 44% more fantasy points than the next-closest player on the slate. While fading him entirely presents the easiest way to be contrarian on this slate, Kamara has a 40% chance of being the optimal Captain play on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

This Might Be Another Night to Roster Just One Quarterback

Similar to Sunday’s Colts – 49ers weather-affected game, this may be a slate where one does not need to prioritize playing both quarterbacks in lineups, even in cash games. Winston has presented the same uneven play that eventually got him booted from his starting job in Tampa Bay, with two top-five fantasy finishes and three outside the top 24. According to the Top Plays Tool, he still has a 15% chance of being the optimal MVP play on FanDuel and an 11% chance on DraftKings. Geno Smith has yet to throw for more than 7.7 yards per attempt or more than one touchdown in either of his outings this season. Even if playing a Seahawks receiver at Captain, there is no need to prioritize pairing them with Smith.

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Break Out Your Kickers and Defenses

With wind and rain possibly a factor and the Seahawks trotting out a backup quarterbacks, this is a recipe for an ugly slog of game. On DraftKings both the Saints and the Seahawks rank in the top 10 in odds to be the top scorer on the slate. The Saints defense, which ranks above average in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses, have a 5.8% chance of being the optimal Captain. Meanwhile, on FanDuel Jason Myers is popping, even at $8,500, with a 14% chance of being among the top five scorers and a 2% chance of being the optimal MVP.

Saints Receivers Have Higher Upside Than Seahawks Rushers

With Alex Collins active but far from 100%, expect DeeJay Dallas and Rashaad Penny to mix into the Seahawks backfield. There could be a full-blown committee in the backfield, which would drastically reduce any of the three players hitting their ceiling. With that and the weather in mind, Marquez Callaway is playable and has a 5%-plus chance of being the optimal Captain on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Kenny Stills saw five targets on just a 51% snap share in Week 5 and has proven capable of chunk plays over the course of his career. Stills has the top Leverage score on the slate, indicating that his chance of being in the optimal lineup far outweighs his projected ownership on both sites.

The Bottom Line

With rain in the forecast and winds that could top 15 mph, the weather meets a criterion that would generally downgrade both teams’ expected passing attacks and upgrade the starting running backs. Still, it makes sense to take chances on the two elite Seahawks receivers as Captain plays in tournaments, but the probability of either Tyler Lockett or D.K. Metcalf hitting their ceilings is doubly reduced by Smith and the weather forecast. With the Saints favored but still looking to protect their traditionally volatile quarterback, Kamara becomes an obvious first choice at Captain on DraftKings, but the Saints auxiliary weapons should not be forgotten about. Callaway, Stills and even tight ends Juwan Johnson and Adam Trautman offer unique ways to differentiate without tying players to Smith. Even with offense possibly coming at a premium, there is little chance the Seahawks’ third-worst defense fully shuts down Kamara and the short passing attack of the Saints, which is why the Saints will take this one handily.

Week 7 Monday Night Football Prediction: Saints 26, Seahawks 17

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We also have NFL showdown projections and NFL single-game ownership projections. View our FanDuel NFL DFS ownership rankings and our DraftKings DFS NFL rankings. Take a look at our depth charts for NFL games, inactives list and NFL lineups. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL plays for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL DFS rankings, and DFS NFL stacking.

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected]

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