NFL DFS Picks Week 12 DraftKings + FanDuel SNF Showdown Browns vs. Ravens

Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 12 Sunday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 12 Browns vs. Ravens Night Football matchup.

Week 12 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks

In a rematch of one of the wildest games of the 2020 season, the Browns and Ravens meet for the first time since Week 14 of last year, when Lamar Jackson was infamously rushed to the locker room for undisclosed reasons in the third quarter, only to re-emerge midway through the fourth, just in time to lead Baltimore to a thrilling 47-42 overtime victory. This year, the two bitter rivals are jockeying for position within the toughest division in football, where every single team currently has a winning record. Cleveland is the only team among the four that has a negative point differential, and that sits at just -7 on the season. With Cleveland slipping to bottom-10 in the NFL in points allowed per play and bottom-five in yards allowed per carry, the Baltimore offense, that thrives on efficiency in the running game, could have a field day against a middling Cleveland defense that has struggled against

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Regardless of matchup difficulty we can almost always assume that Jackson ($12,400 DraftKings/$17,500 FanDuel) will be the highest-rostered player in any Ravens’ game, and this week is no exception. The Cleveland defense ranks right at league-average in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA), but has been well below average over the last four weeks, particularly against opposing rushing attacks. This could prove disastrous against a Ravens offense that still ranks top five in schedule-adjusted rush rate in our advanced stats tool. That doesn’t mean Baltimore doesn’t take plenty of shots downfield, in fact, Jackson ranks No. 1 in the NFL in targets of 20-plus air yards, which makes sense when you’ve got elite downfield weaponry like wideout Marquise Brown ($10,800 DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel), who should be back in the lineup after a one-game absence, and Mark Andrews ($8,200 DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel), who ranks second among all tight ends in deep targets, and third in targets per route run. With both Jackson and Brown out in Week 11, Andrews soaked-up 10 targets, catching eight for 73 yards, and now ranks second top five among all tights in NFL in red zone target share. All three Ravens are more than viable as Captain or MVP plays, but Brown has, by far, the highest ceiling of the group, and has the higher median projection, making him the ideal choice in larger-field tournaments.

With Kareem Hunt ($7,000 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) expected to return to action this Sunday, the Browns will have both of their star running backs on the field together for the first time since Week 5. With star offensive lineman Jack Conklin also slated to return, this could be the best version of the Cleveland offense we’ve seen all season, though it may be another week until we see deep threat Donovan Peoples-Jones ($5,000 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel), though that isn’t a massive loss for a rush-oriented Cleveland team. Baker Mayfield ($9,800 DraftKings/$14,000 FanDuel) ranks 13th in deep passes per game, and are essentially tied with Baltimore in game-adjusted rush rate. Mayfield and the Browns would prefer to win by throwing under 30 times, but when they do pass, expect them to heavily feature Jarvis Landry ($7,800 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel), who saw a team-high eight targets. Hunt, who is ninth among all running backs in share of team targets, will likely see the second-most looks, making him a strong option on his own and as a sneaky stacking option with Mayfield.

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Austin Hooper ($5,200 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) saw seven targets in Week 11, and the Ravens quietly rank bottom 10 in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends. With Hunt back for Cleveland, however, Hooper becomes a much thinner play than he looks to be on paper, though he still ranks second on the team in red-zone target share this season. Fellow tight end David Njoku ($4,000 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) has played roughly an equal snap share and seen a nearly identical air yards share over the last two weeks. They’re both quality tournament plays, but likely need multiple touchdowns to hit for a tournament winning score.

Ravens’ rookie wideout Rashod Bateman ($6,400 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) is certainly capable of putting up a ceiling game in this spot. Bateman has been nothing but impressive in his first five games as a rookie, earning at least six looks in every game of his young career. He has yet to play on more than 71% of the team’s snaps, but already has double-digit fantasy points in three of his first four starts with Jackson under center. Bateman’s expanded role has come at the expense of Sammy Watkins ($5,600 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel), who has a sub-10% in the two games he’s played since Week 6. If going for a low-salary wideout in Baltimore, perhaps Devin Duvernay ($4,800 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) makes an equal amount of sense. Duvernay has a roughly equal chance of hitting his ceiling in this plus-matchup as running backs Devonta Freeman ($6,800 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) and Latavius Murray ($3,600 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel), who should split the 50-60% of the rushing workload that doesn’t get gobbled up by Jackson roughly 50-50.

The Bottom Line

Even with both offenses leaning on their rushing attacks, and both teams ranking bottom 10 in game-script adjusted pace, this game could easily shoot well over it’s modest 47-point Vegas total. With the Ravens clinging to a one game lead in the division, and the Browns just one game out of a playoff spot, expect a playoffs-like intensity at M&T Bank Stadium, and expect the Ravens’ and Browns’ offenses, at much closer to full strength than they were a week ago, to bounce back after subpar Week 11 games. Building lineups chock full of defenses and kickers are never completely off the table, but this matchup has serious shootout potential, and fantasy gamers should build their lineups accordingly.

Week 12 Sunday Night Football Prediction: Ravens 30, Browns 29

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Author

Matt Savoca

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].