(50.5) Atlanta Falcons (22) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (28.5)
Quick-Hitter Game Summary:
- The Buccaneers may rest their starters in this matchup, as they’ve clinched a playoff spot, but have no route to the number-one seed. Coach Bruce Arians has hinted that he will not do so, however.
- Tom Brady, Chris Godwin and Ronald Jones, who returned to practice this week and is expected back Sunday, are the only key Buccaneers weapons who have projections in line with (or better than) their salary-based expectations.
- With no expectation that Julio Jones will play, the Falcons offense will center-around Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. All three look like high-floor, high-ceiling plays at their respective salaries.
- Don’t bother looking at Atlanta running backs. The Buccaneers defense ranks top-10 in nearly every major rushing metric, and best in the league in opponent yards per carry.
Data Deep-Dive:
All Graphs Reflect Last Five Weeks of Data, Click Graphs to Enlarge
NFL DFS Upside Analysis:
Significant takeaways: With just a 50.5 Vegas-total, somewhat modest for this slate in particular, this game has a solid chance to hit the over, especially due to both teams’ heavy reliance on passing. The Buccaneers aren’t the fastest-paced team in the league by any stretch, but they pass on early downs in natural game scripts much more than league average. The Falcons, completely inept at running the football, rely solely on their passing attack, but Matt Ryan’s inefficiency on a per-drive basis often leads to plenty of yards, but very few touchdowns for the Falcons offense.
Passing and Pace
Why look at passing at pace? Teams that play faster and pass more than average tend to score more fantasy points. When both teams play aggressively, it often creates a game environment perfect for fantasy scoring. Games have a higher probability of going over their Vegas total as well. Ideally, we’re seeking matchups where both teams are in the upper-right quadrant of the chart below (see the chart’s caption for more details).
Quarterback Efficiency
Why examine quarterback efficiency? Sustained drives in the NFL rely on efficiency at the quarterback position, so I’ve identified my three favorite performance indicators for assessing quarterback performance. The three bar charts below (see the graph’s caption for more detail) represent a quarterback’s per-drive efficiency (left bar-chart), per-play efficiency including rushes/scrambles (center) and per-pass efficiency (right). Higher rankings from both players indicate a higher likelihood of efficient play, thus a higher probability of fantasy points.
NFL DFS Player Pool Picker
Significant takeaway: The Tampa Bay defense might be fantastic at stopping the run, but they’ve struggled to stop opposing wideouts over their last five games. Matt Ryan looks like a solid value-play, along with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage, and not surprisingly, Atlanta ranks 3rd in Awesemo’s top stack values. The Buccaneers rank 5th, and shouldn’t have any trouble moving the ball through the air against Atlanta’s mediocre pass coverage. Mike Evans‘ salary is steep but not so steep that he’s a stay-away option.
Atlanta Falcons NFL DFS Core Offenses
| Team | Player | Positional Salary Rank | FPTs/Gm Rank | Expected FPTs/Gm Rank | Defense vs. Position | Expected Projection |
| ATL | Matt Ryan, QB | #12 | #17 | #11 | #31 | 19.5 Fpts (QB8) |
| ATL | Calvin Ridley, WR | #2 | #5 | #4 | #32 | 21.5 Fpts (WR4) |
| ATL | Russell Gage, WR | #35 | #67 | #42 | #28 | 11 Fpts (WR40) |
| ATL | Hayden Hurst, TE | #15 | #19 | #21 | #22 | 8.5 Fpts (TE12) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL DFS Core Offenses
| Team | Player | Positional Salary Rank | FPTs/Gm Rank | Expected FPTs/Gm Rank | Defense vs. Position | Expected Projection |
| TB | Tom Brady, QB | #7 | #7 | #7 | #6 | 24 Fpts (QB2) |
| TB | Chris Godwin, WR | #14 | #24 | #26 | #17 | 14 Fpts (WR22) |
| TB | Mike Evans, WR | #8 | #4 | #5 | #15 | 19.5 Fpts (WR5) |
| TB | Ronald Jones II, RB | #19 | #13 | #17 | #9 | 11 Fpts (RB24) |
| TB | Antonio Brown, WR | #28 | #37 | #36 | #32 | 12.5 Fpts (WR31) |
| TB | Rob Gronkowski, TE | #8 | #10 | #12 | #4 | 11.5 Fpts (TE9) |
NFL DFS Skill Position Values: Expected Points
Why examine expected fantasy points? By assigning a value to each play (based on score, down, distance to the goal line, distance to first down, play type, etc.), we can measure not just a player’s workload, but the expected value of that workload using recent league history as a guide. Expected fantasy points should be considered a volume metric. If a player scores more fantasy points (represented by the dots in the bar chart below) than expected, that means the player is either talented or lucky (or both) and may have unsustainable fantasy production based on their usage.
NFL DFS Auxiliary Offensive Players for Large-Field Contests
Significant takeaway: Leonard Fournette has limited appeal, but Fournette should still see 30% or more of the Buccaneers backfield touches, and even more if Jones isn’t back to 100% health-wise. The Falcons have been strong against opposing tight ends, making Cameron Brate less viable in large-field tournaments than typical but he can still be used, especially as part of a larger Tom Brady stack.
Atlanta Falcons NFL DFS Tournament Picks
| Team | Player | Snap Share | Opportunity Score | Defense vs. Position | Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere |
| ATL | Ito Smith, RB | 35% | 32 | #2 | Look Elsewhere |
| ATL | Brian Hill, RB | 30% | 17 | #2 | Look Elsewhere |
| ATL | Todd Gurley, RB | 39% | 62 | #2 | Look Elsewhere |
| ATL | Christian Blake, WR | 33% | 25 | #4 | Look Elsewhere |
| ATL | Brandon Powell, WR | 23% | 1 | #4 | Look Elsewhere |
| ATL | Keith Smith, RB | 21% | 4 | #2 | Look Elsewhere |
| ATL | Laquon Treadwell, WR | 10% | 9 | #4 | Look Elsewhere |
| ATL | Luke Stocker, TE | 46% | 1 | #22 | Look Elsewhere |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL DFS Tournament Picks
| Team | Player | Snap Share | Opportunity Score | Defense vs. Position | Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere |
| TB | Leonard Fournette, RB | 50% | 83 | #9 | MME-only |
| TB | LeSean McCoy, RB | 14% | 40 | #9 | Look Elsewhere |
| TB | Cameron Brate, TE | 38% | 52 | #4 | MME-only |
| TB | Scotty Miller, WR | 21% | 44 | #32 | Look Elsewhere |
| TB | Tyler Johnson, WR | 14% | 3 | #32 | Look Elsewhere |
| TB | Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB | 25% | 0 | #9 | Look Elsewhere |
Final Thoughts
Tom Brady and Matt Ryan could easily combine for the most total pass attempts on the entire slate. The Buccaneers are always tough to predict week-to-week as they’re perfectly content to spread the ball around to four or five different receivers, but the Falcons have an extremely consolidated passing attack, meaning Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, and even Hayden Hurst are all extremely viable options in all daily fantasy football formats.
Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Falcons 21.
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