We had some very exciting Wild Card games last weekend, though the NFL DFS production was a bit lacking across the board. Eight teams remain in the playoffs and we are running out of time to play fantasy football. My Fantasy Matchups column continues with this weekend’s divisional round.
Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers
Total:45
Line: SF -7
Vikings passing game
Minnesota walked into New Orleans and pulled off the upset last week. While it was mostly the defense and the rejuvenated ground game that did the work, Kirk Cousins made some absolutely fantastic throws late in the game when it mattered most. He ultimately finished the game with just 242 yards and one touchdown, the game-winner in overtime. Now Cousins heads to San Francisco to take on a stout and rested 49ers defense that generated pressure at the second-highest rate in the NFL at 28.7 percent. They also allowed the lowest average depth of target in football at 6.8, while no team coughed up less yards per completion over the course of the season (8.5).
The 49ers did allow 11 passing touchdowns over their final four games but their defense limped to the finish line, dealing with injuries to Richard Sherman, K’Waun Williams, Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt. The only time an opposing quarterback threw for multiple touchdown passes against them this season was during that shootout in New Orleans a few weeks ago. The Vikings are going to continue trying to win games with their running game and with the 49ers offense averaging 28.9 seconds per play this season (4th-slowest), I expect another minimal passing attempt game from Cousins. Even on a four-game slate, it is tough to get excited about him.
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Cousins’ pass-catchers aren’t quite 100 percent right now. Upon writing this, Adam Thielen is dealing with an ankle injury. He was full in practice on Tuesday but then downgraded to limited on Wednesday. It doesn’t sound too alarming but just monitor it. Thielen finally had a breakout game against the Saints last week, hauling in seven passes for 129 yards. He set up the game-winning touchdown with a beautiful over-the-shoulder catch and has no issues with his nagging hamstring injury.
The Vikings didn’t really move him around, though, as he lined up in the slot just eight times. That means he’ll see a good amount of Sherman in this game, who lines up on the left side of the formation 98 percent of the time, while Thielen is aligned on the right 42 percent of the time. Sherman has obviously been very strong this season, allowing the lowest yards per reception mark among all corners (7.5), as well as the third-lowest yards per target (5.3). He also allowed 1.43 fantasy points per target, which ranked 15th in football. I’m not running to Thielen this week, especially since he’s been priced-up, but as long as he’s okay, I’m not totally opposed to him.
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Stefon Diggs, meanwhile, caught just two of three targets for 19 yards. Diggs is more of the GPP play because he is still usually the field-stretcher in this offense, as he finished the season sixth among receivers in yards per reception (17.9), third in yards per target (12.1) and fourth in yards per pass route (2.97). Unfortunately, no team in football allowed fewer passing plays of 20 yards or more during the regular season than the 49ers (34), while their 5.2 yards per pass attempt was also the best in the league. Volume is also a concern for Diggs, as the Vikings are still a run-first team and are (mostly) healthy. In games Thielen has been in the lineup this season,
Diggs is averaging just over five targets per game, compared to over seven per game with him inactive. I like him in tournaments because he has that big play ability and many people will likely be off him, but he’s a tough sell in cash games.
Kyle Rudolph was the hero last week, scoring the game-winning touchdown in overtime. Perhaps a little push-off helped but I digress. Anyway, the score and six targets were encouraging but rookie Irv Smith is still part of this offense, as he ran 15 routes to Rudolph’s 22. With most tight ends in NFL DFS, you are really hoping for a touchdown, but especially in this case. No team in football surrendered fewer yards per game to the tight end position than the 49ers (34.5), while their 6.3 targets per game allowed were 11th-fewest. San Francisco did allow opposing offenses to convert 60 percent of red zone trips into touchdowns, however, the 10th-worst rate in the league.
Vikings running game
In the biggest game of the year, Dalvin Cook carried the ball 28 times, a season-high. After resting him to end the regular season, Cook is fresh and ready to carry this offense. He was six yards shy of becoming the first running back to rush for 100 yards against the Saints in over 40 games, but still found the end zone twice. The Vikings stayed committed to the run, calling run 54 percent of the time against the Saints, a number that was about five percent higher than their season run rate.
Minnesota will continue to give him 25-30 touches in this game, making him a very strong cash game play. Though the potential return of Kwon Alexander could really bolster this San Francisco run defense. According to The QuantEdge, opponents have a 51.1 percent run success rate with Alexander off the field this year, compared to a 44.6 percent success rate when he’s available.
49ers passing game
So I was all over Drew Brees and the New Orleans passing attack last week because, well, I’m an idiot, I guess. But seriously. Minnesota has been vulnerable through the air all year long and with the Saints at home, I thought they’d do whatever they want. Give credit to the Vikings, however, as that was not the case. Now they face Jimmy Garoppolo, who has similar volume as Cousins. These are the number-two and number-three teams in the league in rushing rate, so this game could honestly fly by. And yet, I still have some moderate GPP interest in Garoppolo because the Vikings have been a pass funnel for the majority of the season.
Teams are calling pass 61.9 percent of the time against the Vikings this year, the fifth-highest rate in football. Meanwhile, 72.7 percent of the touchdowns surrendered by this defense have come through the air, the second-highest rate in the league. The bad news? Minnesota is a very good tackling team, allowing the third-fewest yards after the catch during the regular season, while their 67 missed tackles are second-best. That doesn’t bode extremely well for Garoppolo, who averaged 6.6 yards after the catch per completion this year, the highest mark among all quarterbacks.
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The 49ers are also going to run the ball a lot but Minnesota limited rushing touchdowns, making it possible that Garoppolo has multiple touchdown passes, even on 30-32 pass attempts. He’s been an inconsistent NFL DFS producer but this is a four-game slate where you want to load up on volume at running back. And Garoppolo is cheap.
Once again, the San Francisco wideouts are tough to gauge. Emmanuel Sanders has been wildly inconsistent since joining the team, posting DraftKings totals of 5.5, 9.1, 2.9, 37.1, 8.1, 2.5 and 6.3. That alone is scary, especially in a run-first offense where the quarterback spreads the ball around. However, the matchup is strong, as Minnesota is extremely thin at cornerback. Mike Hughes and Mackenzie Alexander are both done for the year and wide receivers are already averaging 21.4 targets per game against the Vikings this season, good for the sixth-most in the NFL. Seven different receivers reached the 100-yard mark against the Vikings over the course of the season, making Sanders a viable cash play this weekend.
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Deebo Samuel is absolutely in play, too. Since Week 10, Samuel is the WR9 in NFL DFS. During that span, he is sixth among all receivers in fantasy points per snap (0.32), eighth in yards per target (12.2) and fourth in yards after the catch per reception (9.4). For the year, he is second among all wide receivers in that category (8.3), so the big play potential is always there. He will line up against the eroding Xavier Rhodes and let me tell you, the roads are absolutely open this year. Rhodes is allowing nearly 13 yards per catch, 10 yards per target and over two fantasy points per target on the season. Rhodes is also allowing a 76 percent catch rate, making Samuel a big time interest of mine this week.
Obviously, there is nothing ever wrong with getting to George Kittle. The All-Pro tight end has as much upside as anyone, leading all pass-catchers in yards per pass route (4.20). He also ranked second among tight ends in yards per target (9.8) and ninth in yards per reception (12.4). The Vikings have been very good against opposing tight ends this season, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position (7.6) and the fewest touchdowns per game (0.1). They have held some of the better tight ends in the league out of the end zone. However, opposing tight ends are averaging a healthy eight targets per game against them on the year, the eighth-most in football. Regardless of the matchup, you will want some exposure to Kittle on this slate.
49ers running game
Raheem Mostert took over the starting job in Week 13 against the Ravens. Since that game, the 49ers backfield touch counts are as follows: Mostert (70), Tevin Coleman (24), Matt Breida (17). Mostert has obviously vastly outplayed the latter two, averaging a strong 1.30 PPR points per touch during that span, while Coleman and Breida are averaging 0.55 and 0.59, respectively. Since Week 13, Mostert is eighth in the league in rushing yards (379), second in rushing touchdowns (6), second in yards per carry (5.9) and ninth in fantasy points (92.9).
He’s been efficient all year long, averaging 6.3 yards per touch, the fourth-most in all of football and given his play, there is no reason the 49ers should get away from him here. Pencil him in as the lead back, though the matchup is rather daunting. Minnesota allowed the fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns per game during the regular season (0.5), while his absolute ceiling for touches is probably 15. That makes him more of a GPP play for me here, while Coleman and Breida are nothing more than dart throws, in the hopes that they break a long run or Mostert leaves the game, god forbid.
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Total: 46.5
Line: BAL -9.5
Titans passing game
Ryan Tannehill attempted 15 passes, completed eight of them for 72 yards, threw a pick and walked out of Foxboro victorious. Okay, then. Tannehill was obviously an incredible NFL DFS quarterback during the regular season but in the playoffs, this team is clearly going to pound the rock. And it isn’t as if Tannehill was seeing huge passing volume during the regular season, as he was under 30 pass attempts in seven different starts. There is definitely a better chance that the Titans are chasing points in this game, and regardless, you have to project him for more than 15 passes. However, I really don’t think I am going to get to Tannehill in this spot.
The Ravens defense has been fantastic during the second half of the season and finished the year allowing the ninth-fewest yards per play (5.2). And over the final four weeks of the season, Baltimore allowed just 0.34 fantasy points per pass attempt, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. Only one quarterback has scored more than 16 fantasy points against the Ravens this year and with Tannehill’s volume in question, you will need him to be very efficient against one of the best pass defenses in football. I’m really not interested in him at all here.
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We know that A.J. Brown is an immense talent with game-breaking upside. However, he is rarely a cash play when his target totals are so inconsistent. Since Week 14, Brown has seen 7, 13, 2, 8 and 1 targets. Of course, last week’s matchup was brutal and it is difficult for anyone to have a big game when their quarterback attempts 15 passes. But the Titans aren’t going to change their offensive mindset and this matchup isn’t that much better. Baltimore has three guys they can throw at Brown, though he’ll see the most of Jimmy Smith, who is allowing the sixth-lowest catch rate among all corners this year (52.0%), while his 1.36 fantasy points per target are 11th-best.
Brown always has tournament appeal due to his league-leading 8.9 yards after the catch per reception and second-best yards per target (12.5) and yards per pass route (3.46). But he is not a priority by any means. Meanwhile, Corey Davis doesn’t exactly profile well either. He’s been a non-factor for the majority of the season and will see Marcus Peters, who takes chances and could get beat deep. But he’s actually allowing the fifth-lowest yards per catch mark in the league (9.3) and 10th-lowest yards per target (5.9).
Jonnu Smith has also been very inconsistent and we saw Anthony Firkser get more targets than him last week, while finding the end zone. On a four-game slate, it is difficult to completely cross a tight end off the board, especially one with Smith’s ability once the ball is in his hands. His 7.8 yards after the catch per reception ranked second among all tight ends but the Ravens missed the fifth-fewest tackles in football this year, while surrendering the fewest total points per game to opposing tight ends.
Titans running game
What a monster. Derrick Henry truly is not someone you want to see in the playoffs. 35 touches, 204 total yards and a touchdown against the Patriots in Foxboro is very impressive as Henry remained one of the best backs in NFL DFS last weekend. In the two biggest games of the year, Tennessee gave Henry 32 and 34 carries, as he finished the season with a league-high 303 carries and the fourth-highest opportunity share (81.4%).
Henry created nearly 39 yards per game by himself, or after he evaded the first tackler, so he really is matchup-proof. His 1.80 yards created per carry was fifth-best in football. Baltimore definitely isn’t an elite matchup but they did allow 4.4 yards per carry during the regular season, the 12th-most in football. The only concern I have with Henry is if the Tennessee defense can get stops, as opposing offenses against the Ravens are averaging just 57.6 plays per game, easily the fewest in the NFL. If they can’t, not only will Henry lose touches but the Titans could get behind, which is never the game script we went for him. Still, you have to have a fair amount of exposure to him on a slate like this.
Ravens passing game
Even on a four-game slate, I am here to say: play Lamar Jackson if you want. Despite not having played in two weeks, Jackson should be set to have another big day, and the rest should have helped him heal a bit after taking so many hits and running so much during the regular season. No other quarterback on this slate (or in the league) touches Jackson’s rushing ability, which will make all the difference. He obviously led all passers in carries per game (11.7), red zone carries per game (1.8) and rushing yards per game (80.9).
This matchup is OK, not great but it doesn’t matter with Jackson, who finished the season averaging a gaudy 0.69 fantasy points per dropback. Tennessee also fails to pressure the quarterback at a high rate, doing so 21.1 percent of the time, the eighth-lowest rate in football. They also knocked opposing quarterbacks down on just 4.5 percent of their dropbacks, easily the lowest rate in football. Meanwhile, nearly 63 percent of quarterbacks tossed multiple touchdowns against the Titans this season, making it almost a priority to lock Jackson into your cash game lineups and move on.
Per usual, I am starting with Mark Andrews in this passing game. He’s been the focal point of the offense all year, as Jackson targeted the tight end position over 40 percent of the time during the season. Andrews was targeted on 21 percent of his snaps this year, the highest rate among all qualified tight ends, while his 24.1 percent target share was third-best at the position. Those target totals make up for him only playing 50 percent of the total snaps most games, as the Ravens have two very good blocking tight ends in Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst.
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Andrews led the position with 20 deep targets, averaging 1.3 per game, while his 3.69 yards per pass route trailed only George Kittle. Meanwhile, his 11 end zone targets tied for the most among all tight ends. This matchup is very solid, as the Titans have taken a step back when it comes to defending tight ends. Tennessee allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position to go along with the 10th-highest yards per reception mark (11.5), as well as the eighth-most yards per game (57.3). Andrews is an elite play this weekend and a perfect pair with Jackson.
On a normal slate, I likely wouldn’t have much, if any, if Marquise Brown. However, he should finally be fully healthy, is tied to the hottest quarterback in the league and offers slate-breaking upside, making him someone you should probably sprinkle into your GPP lineups. Brown is likely to see a lot of Adoree’ Jackson, who played very well in his return from injury last week, and is one of the few corners in the NFL that have the speed to keep up with a receiver like Hollywood. Meanwhile, someone like Willie Snead has played the most snaps out of any Baltimore pass-catcher this season, so the playing time will be there. However, he is averaging less than three targets per game, making him a tough sell, even on a four-game slate.
Ravens running game
Mark Ingram suffered a calf injury in Week 16, though he appears on track to suit up for this game. Assuming he does, it is easy to project him. Ingram will be the lead back and get the majority of the goal line carries for Ravens, as he finished second in the league with 13 goal line carries. 15 carries seem to be a lock for Ingram but he exceeded that mark just one time all season long, limiting his upside. Of course, he can (and has) scored multiple touchdowns in games before, doing so in three of his last five games.
There is nothing special about this matchup but Ingram is the lead back in an offense that is calling run over 56 percent of the time, easily the highest rate in the NFL. He has plenty of touchdown-equity but so do a handful of other backs on this slate with upside of 20-plus touches.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 51
Line: KC -10
Texans Passing Game
The Texans had an impressive come-from-behind victory against another NFL team that won’t be named last week. Most of it came from the brilliance of Deshaun Watson, who made big play after big play in the fourth quarter. He finished with 247 passing yards and a touchdown along with 55 yards and a rushing touchdown on 14 carries. Now Watson travels to Kansas City to take on an improving Chiefs pass defense that surrendered 0.26 fantasy points per pass attempt over the final four weeks of the season, the second-fewest in football.
When Watson faced the Chiefs earlier on in the year, he threw for 280 yards and a touchdown, while adding two more scores on the ground. Keep in mind he also had four touchdown passes dropped in this game, so it could have been an even bigger outing. The Chiefs have been much improved against the pass since then and ultimately finished the season with the eighth-lowest passing touchdown rate allowed at 3.6 percent.
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They also allowed just 6.1 yards per pass attempt, the fourth-best mark in the league, while playing in Kansas City is a tough place to play, especially in some potential snow. Still, Watson is an elite talent, averaging 0.51 fantasy points per dropback, the fifth-most in the league. And although he isn’t my favorite cash game quarterback this week, he is always worth a look in tournaments.
DeAndre Hopkins was held without a catch in the first half of last week’s game but got going in the second half, finishing with 90 yards on six receptions. They moved Hopkins inside a lot more than normal to get him away from Tre’Davious White, as he was in the slot 55 percent of the time. It is notable because Hopkins only lined up in the slot about 35 percent of the time over the course of the regular season.
Nearly 20 percent of his targets came from inside last week and it will be interesting to see if they move him around again this week. The matchup isn’t all that good, as the Chiefs have been much better against perimeter receivers than slot wideouts, as they allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing receivers on the left side of the formation and the fewest to receivers on the right side. However, they did allow 20.8 fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers, the eighth-most in the league, per Pro Football Focus, so if Hopkins stays inside this week, it will help. Hopkins isn’t a must or anything this week but I’d be worried about having zero percent of him.
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We’ll see if Will Fuller can get back on the field this week, as the speedy receiver continues to battle through a groin injury. He hasn’t played since Week 16 (where he left early) and is always at risk of aggravation, which is a scary proposition. Like always, you aren’t playing Fuller in cash, especially this week. But this screams GPP spot for him, if he’s active. Fuller will see coverage from Bashaud Breeland, who has been a solid corner but can give it up. Consider this. Breeland is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per coverage snap this year (0.24). However, he is allowing a whopping 16.3 yards per reception, which is exactly what we want to see when looking at a big play threat like Fuller. Breeland is also allowing nearly 10 yards per target so if Fuller is active, he needs to be sprinkled into your GPP pool.
If Fuller returns this week, Kenny Stills moves back to the slot, which is where you’d rather target receivers against the Chiefs. And if Fuller can’t go, I’d imagine Hopkins is inside around 50 percent of the time again, while Stills will continue to play around 90 percent of the snaps (99 percent last week), though the matchup isn’t as favorable.
Jordan Akins missed last week’s game against the Bills and as a result, veteran Darren Fells played 96 percent of the snaps, hauling in four of five targets for 37 yards. The matchup wasn’t good against the Bills but Kansas City hasn’t been very good against tight ends this season, coughing up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position (11.1). They also allow 6.1 receptions per game to opposing tight ends, tied for the second-most in the league, so Fells would be an ideal value option if Akins is out.
Texans running game
Despite Houston trailing for much of this game, Carlos Hyde once again remained the lead back, carrying the ball 16 times for 48 yards, while adding a five-yard touchdown catch. Regardless of how many more explosive players they have on their offense, the Texans are sold on giving Hyde carries early and often, as he’s carried the football 15 times or more nine times this season.
This is actually an intriguing spot for him, as we know you can run on the Chiefs. They are stuffing just 14 percent of all carries against them this year, which is the third-lowest rate in the league. Hyde got them for 116 yards and a touchdown on a season-high 26 carries, and that was in Kansas City. Only the Browns, Jaguars and Panthers allowed more yards per carry than the Chiefs (4.9), while 39 percent of the touchdowns scored against Kansas City have come via the run, the 11th-highest rate. I am pretty interested in Hyde at just $5,000 on DraftKings.
Meanwhile, Duke Johnson touched the ball just six times last week and is very difficult to roster. The matchup is favorable, as the Chiefs are allowing the third-most receptions per game to opposing backfields (6.3), as well as the most receiving yards per game to the position (59.4).
Chiefs passing game
I absolutely love Patrick Mahomes in tournaments this week. We’ve seen his NFL DFS totals lack a bit this year but this is a very strong matchup. The Texans are allowing a healthy 11.3 yards per completion this season, while they were one of only six teams to allow at least two passing touchdowns per game. 72.3 percent of the touchdowns scored against Houston this season have come via the pass, the third-highest rate in the NFL. Houston allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers in 2019 (21.1), as well as the fifth-highest passing touchdown rate (5.1%). The Texans also allowed the fifth-most yards after the catch over the course of the regular season, while Mahomes was third among all signal callers in yards after the catch per completion (6.1). Give me some Mahomes this week, for sure.
Tyreek Hill hasn’t reached 80 yards (let alone 100) in a game since Week 10, which obviously isn’t great. The good news is that the Texans allowed eight receivers to go for 100 yards over the course of the season, while allowing the eighth-most passing plays of 20 yards or more and the seventh-most plays of at least 40 yards. None of these Houston corners have the speed to match Hill, who is seventh in the league in yards per pass route (2.70). He is one of the most appealing plays of the slate, in any format.
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Meanwhile, it would be so Sammy Watkins to go off in the playoffs after doing seemingly nothing since Week 1. Regardless of his underwhelming play, Watkins is still playing a ton of snaps and is tied to one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He is only $4,300 against one of the more exploitable pass defenses in the league. Then there is Mecole Hardman, who continues to make big plays for this Chiefs offense, yet is playing just 45 percent of the offensive snaps. Hardman paced all wide receivers in both yards per reception (20.7) and yards per target (13.1), giving him a ton of upside, especially since he also returns kicks, which is something that needs to be considered when making lineups.
Travis Kelce is too cheap. The guy has recorded 60 yards or more in 12 games this season, while ranking all tight ends in targets (136). He led all tight ends in completed air yards, averaging nearly seven per target, while he also ranked fifth in both yards per target (9.0) and yards per pass route (2.50).
Chiefs running game
The Kansas City backfield has been a headache for most of the season but Damien Williams is healthy and appears to once again be the lead back. The Chiefs have limited LeSean McCoy’s workload all year long and I don’t envision them suddenly changing that, especially with Williams healthy. Over the final two weeks of the regular season, Williams touched the football 35 times for 194 yards and three touchdowns. He logged 60 percent of the offensive snaps during that span and gets a solid matchup with the Texans, who allow 4.9 yards per carry on the year. They have also been bad against receiving backs, coughing up 55.7 receiving yards per game to opposing backfields, the second-most in the league. Meanwhile, their 6.5 receptions per game allowed to the position were the second-most, making Williams a very solid play in cash or tournaments.
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Total: 47
Line: GB -4.5
Seahawks passing game
Russell Wilson is tough for me to figure out in this spot. Green Bay has been pretty bad against the run for most of the season and we know Seattle will stay committed to the run, despite losing their top three running backs. Meanwhile, the Packers have also been very up-and-down against the pass during the second half of the season but this could still be another 30-pass attempt game from Wilson, which would make him tough to rival other quarterbacks in cash on this slate. The Packers sported the sixth-lowest passing touchdown rate at just 3.5 percent, while allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per pass attempt over the final four weeks of the season (0.26). However, they faced a very soft quarterback schedule and Wilson is always a candidate for a big game, which keeps him in my player pool.
We just watched D.K. Metcalf record 160 yards and a score in his first career playoff game, a rookie record. He was the focal point of the offense against the Eagles, seeing nine targets, while Wilson looked his way on the biggest play of the game to seal Seattle’s victory. I loved Metcalf last week and while I’m not as high on him this week, it is still a very capable spot for him to have another big game. Green Bay allowed 15 passing plays of 40 yards or more during the regular season, the second-most in the NFL, while Metcalf averaged nearly seven air yards per target this year.
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He also led all wide receivers with 18 end zone targets, while Wilson led all quarterbacks in end zone passes, so the touchdown upside is always there. Metcalf will line up with Kevin King, who has the size to match Metcalf but King allowed plenty of big plays this season. He allowed nearly 16 yards per catch this season and the 10th-most yards per coverage snap. King was also bottom-eight in both receiving yards and YAC allowed, making this another intriguing spot for Metcalf.
Meanwhile, Tyler Lockett still had a solid eight target last week, hauling in four of them for 62 yards. He is now cheaper than Metcalf after being way more than him last week and although he has the worse matchup of the two, we know that he always has 160-yard, one-touchdown upside like Metcalf just showed. Green Bay was about middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to the slot this year but veteran Tramon Williams may not have the speed to keep up with Lockett here. I do prefer Metcalf again but Lockett shouldn’t be completely overlooked.
For a four-game slate, we actually have a handful of really good tight ends to choose from, mainly at the top. That will make Jacob Hollister fly under the radar, though his ceiling isn’t anywhere close to the top three options, making him a pretty safe avoid in tournaments. His target range has been anywhere from 3-8 as of late, which means he isn’t really a must in cash either. The Packers did allow a 70 percent completion rate to opposing tight ends on the year but it is tough to get excited about Hollister on this slate.
Seahawks running game
Over the last two weeks, Travis Homer has out-snapped Marshawn Lynch 94-41, making him the lead back. However, he only out-touched him 12-8 last week, while Lynch continues to see the carries from inside the five-yard line. Neither found much success on the ground against a stout Eagles run defense, though Lynch did find the end zone. This week’s matchup is much better, as the Packers stuffed just 13 percent of all carries at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the second-lowest rate in the league. They also allowed a healthy 4.7 yards per carry, while 44.1 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Packers came on the ground, the fifth-highest rate in football. They did a good job of limiting running backs in the passing game, however, which makes Lynch my preferred option, though neither are a priority when their ceiling for touches is 12.
Packers passing game
I can’t say that I love Aaron Rodgers this week, though I can’t say I hate him either. I am throwing what Seattle’s defense did last week out the window, as they faced a banged up Philadelphia that lost their starting quarterback on the second drive of the game. Rodgers has definitely had a down fantasy season, ranking 13th among all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback (0.42) and fantasy points per game (17.0). The Seahawks defense is a bend but don’t break unit but they also fail to generate much of a pass ruh, pressuring opposing quarterbacks just 19.3 percent of the time during the regular season, the fifth-lowest rate in the league. However, no quarterback has thrown multiple passing touchdowns against Seattle this season, making Rodgers a middling option for me once again.
Since returning from his toe injury in Week 9, Davante Adams finished second among all receivers in targets (91), averaging 11.4 per game, the fourth-most in the league during that span. He was also targeted on 19.9 percent of his snaps during that stretch of games, tied with Julio Jones for the fourth-highest rate among qualified receivers. Rodgers only has eyes for Adams and that might be even more true here in the playoffs. Matchup aside, Adams is one of the best bets for NFL DFS production at any position this weekend. Make sure you have plenty of exposure to him.
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Allen Lazard has clearly surpassed Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as the number-two receiver in Green Bay. During the final four weeks of the season, Lazard logged 72 percent of the offensive snaps and has quietly seen an impressive 17 targets over the last two games. Averaging a solid 9.2 yards per target on the year, Lazard has taken over as the deep threat in this offense and because Seattle’s pass-rush is below average, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Rodgers connect with him on a few deep balls. He is an intriguing GPP play.
Packers running game
Jamaal Williams missed Week 17’s game with a shoulder injury but should be good to go this week. Of course, Aaron Jones remains the preferred Packers running back, as he should get anywhere between 15-22 touches in a solid matchup. We know he has the touchdown upside, too, finding the end zone 19 total times on the year. 46.8 percent of the touchdowns surrendered by the Seahawks this season have come via the run, the fourth-highest rate in football, which bodes well for Jones, who averaged nearly four red zone touches per game, while his 12 goal line carries were the third-most in the NFL.
Williams, meanwhile, is an ideal player to target on a four-game slate in tournaments because he gets enough work to warrant a roster spot anyway, but we’ve seen the Packers get away from Jones if he struggles in pass protection (or in the passing game in general) or fumbles the football.
