Using Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool, each player carries an optimal lineup percentage score, which is the probability that player will be in perfect lineup for that slate based on Awesemo’s projections. Below are three of the players with the highest Week 17 DraftKings and FanDuel optimal lineup percentage scores of the week using the Boom/Bust Tool. Check out all of the Awesemo expert tools and cheat sheets when making your NFL DFS picks this week.
Week 17 NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks & Projections
*Percentages indicate Optimal Lineup Scores
Antonio Brown — DraftKings: 41.3%, FanDuel: 23.4%
Priced at $6,100 on DraftKings, Brown has the highest optimal lineup percentage score on the slate while being one of two players with a boom score (40%) higher than his bust score (15%). He is a more valuable play in DraftKings than FanDuel where he is priced at a more appropriate $8,100, but his ownership comes in at only 17.8% in the latter, granting him a leverage score of 5.6%, the second best on the slate. Brown is coming off a 15-target game, his highest of the season, and that was his first game back from suspension. He has seen 47 targets over his last four games and continues to display chemistry with Tom Brady. Over these four games, he produced 381 yards receiving and three touchdowns over 33 receptions. This resulted in 89.1 fantasy points or 22.3 fantasy points per game.
While the Jets have been solid against opposing wide receivers over the season, this success has diminished over the past two weeks. Since Week 15 New York has allowed the eighth-most yardage to the position while allowing an average of 33.3 fantasy points per game. Tampa Bay has passed more than any team in the NFL (42.8 pass attempts per game), and while a blowout game could result in fewer attempts, Brown saw between 30% and 51% of the target share over the last two weeks and expects to continue to see a high share with Chris Godwin out for the season.
David Montgomery — DraftKings: 32%, FanDuel: 27.9%
Montgomery is the only other player on the slate besides Antonio Brown with a boom score (25.7%) higher than his bust score (16.8%). He holds the highest optimal lineup percentage on FanDuel and second highest on DraftKings. Montgomery has maintained one of the highest overall usages in the NFL this season and has taken 70 carries and ran 86 routes over the last four games. With his 16 red-zone carries over that span he has produced two touchdowns and 411 total yards.
Montgomery has seen 31 targets since Week 13, resulting in 26 receptions. Meanwhile, the Giants also allow 5.7 receptions to running backs per game, the ninth most in the NFL. New York has allowed the fifth-most yards rushing and seventh-most yards passing to running backs this season, resulting in the eight-most fantasy points (396.1) to the position while allowing 26.5 DraftKings points per game since Week 14.
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Cooper Kupp — DraftKings: 17.9%, FanDuel: 18.5%
No team in the NFL has allowed more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers since Week 10 than the Ravens. Kupp continues to produce one of the greatest wide receiver seasons in NFL history and has scored over 20 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games and 12 of 15 games this year. He leads the league in targets (177), target share (33.1%), red-zone targets (35), receptions (132), yards (1,734), yards after catch (754), touchdowns receiving (14) and fantasy points per game (26.1). He has seen 41 targets over the last three weeks, with 10 of these targets coming in the red zone, where he holds a 33.3% target share over the season.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have given up a league-worst 1,469 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns to opposing receivers since Week 10, and they have allowed six 100-yard performers. Their secondary has been decimated by injury, losing four starters to the injured reserve list. This matchup carries the third-highest game total (46.5) on the slate, which projects plenty of opportunity for Kupp. His price point appears to have contestants fading the play, but with a golden matchup and unbelievably consistent production, this appears to be the wrong play.
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