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Low Priced Value Plays

Low-Priced Value Plays for DraftKings + FanDuel | Week 11 NFL DFS Picks

Matt Gajewski

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Matt Gajewski breaks down the best NFL DFS value picks for DraftKings + FanDuel for Week 11 Daily Fantasy Football Lineups | Taysom Hill

With 10 daily fantasy football weeks in the books, both FanDuel and DraftKings released an array of exciting NFL DFS contests ahead of Week 11. While prices adjusted, a few low-priced value plays in the player pool stand out as optimal NFL DFS picks this week.


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NFL DFS Picks: Week 11 DraftKings + FanDuel Value Plays | Daily Fantasy Football

Quarterback

Taysom Hill ($4,800 DraftKings / $4,500 FanDuel)

Getting the Taysom Hill situation out of the way, Hill possesses tight end eligibility on FanDuel. Sean Payton named Hill the starting quarterback of the Saints earlier this week and he reportedly took all of the first team reps with the offense. This makes him the easiest and chalkiest play on the FanDuel slate. On DraftKings, Hill still comes in as a strong value, despite being limited to the quarterback position. With the Saints favored by 3.5-points in the second-highest totaled game of the slate (49-points), the value on Hill remains difficult to pass up.

From an efficiency perspective, Hill looks quite a bit different than Drew Brees. To this point, the Saints have used Hill as a gadget player. He stands 6-foot-2, 221 pounds and often finds himself deployed as a rusher. As a passer, he holds a 55.6% completion percentage with 11.4 yards per attempt. Still, Hill has only thrown 18 career passes in the NFL. Lucky for Hill, Atlanta allows the third-most yards per pass attempt to opposing offenses (8.0). With that juicy matchup and and a 5.5 yards per carry average backing him up, Hill remains the top value on both DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend.

NFL DFS Picks: Running Back

Kalen Ballage ($5,600 DraftKings / $5,800 FanDuel)

Surpassing Joshua Kelley as Los Angeles’ lead runner, Kalen Ballage enters Week 11 with a depressed price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Chargers also enter the week as 9.5-point favorites over the New York Jets. The Jets just allowed well over 100-yards rushing to the New England Patriots, setting up Ballage for a solid performance.

Looking at Ballage in the Los Angeles offense, he out-carried Kelley 18-7 in the run game, while adding another six targets in the pass game. For the sake of reference, Kelley did not see a single target in that game. The Chargers still rank second in plays per game (71.3), creating enough volume for both rushers to see their fair share of carries. With matchup and volume working in his favor, Ballage remains a strong value in DFS in Week 11.

Duke Johnson ($5,400 DraftKings / $6,000 FanDuel)

Unlike Ballage, Johnson flopped last week in a potential feature back role for the Houston Texans. With David Johnson on injured reserve with a concussion, most expected Johnson to slide seamlessly into an efficient role. In Johnson’s defense, overall offensive output suffered as a result of weather last week, giving him a chance to bounce back in Week 11.

Positively, Johnson handled 14 carries and played on 70% of Houston’s run plays. He also finished as the only running back to see a carry. CJ Prosise mixed in for a target, but the journeyman seldom saw the field otherwise. This week, Johnson draws the New England Patriots in a game tied for the second-highest total on the slate (49-points). With volume still working in his favor, going back to Johnson here makes sense.

NFL DFS Picks: Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman ($4,500 DraftKings / $5,500 FanDuel)

After a short trip to injured reserve, Michael Pittman’s timely return comes at a point of need for Indianapolis. TY Hilton continues to struggle, opening the door for a changing of the guard. Still coming in at a discounted price, Pittman finds himself facing the Green Bay Packers in the game totaled for the most points on the main slate (51.5-points).

Looking at Pittman’s role, he has seven and eight targets respectively in his last two games. Both marks paced the team. He also continues to run a route on a majority of the drop backs for Indianapolis. Last week, his 95% route rate also paced the Colts. Playing an emerging role within this offense, Pittman looks like a strong value target on DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend.

Daily Fantasy Football Picks: Tight End

Dallas Goedert ($3,800 DraftKings / $5,800 FanDuel) 

With the Taysom Hill discussion already completed, this breakdown will focus on the tight end position for DraftKings. Standing out among a desolate position, Dallas Goedert still presents a strong value play. The Eagles face the Steelers in a game totaled at 46-points. Despite the tough matchup, Goedert looks like a value based on the talent he displayed previously this season.

Goedert missed multiple weeks in the middle of the season with an ankle injury. However, in his return, he ran a route on 74% and 83% of the Eagles’ drop-backs. Last week, that amounted to six targets in the passing game, which tied for second behind Jalen Reagor. With the depth chart still unsettled at wide receiver, Goedert has the chance to play a large role for this Eagles team down the stretch. Tight end is a dice roll on most NFL DFS slates, betting on Goedert’s talent this week makes sense on DraftKings specifically.


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Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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