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Low-Priced Value Plays: Week 16 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings + FanDuel

Kyle Dvorchak

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WEek9 NFL DFS showdown picks today tonight DraftKings FanDuel optimal optimizer lineup picks Bears vs. Steelers Monday night football advice tips strategy best bets betting picks player props free

The Week 16 daily fantasy football slate presents an interesting mix of players seeing copious volume and modest game totals. Saving money without sacrificing in fantasy projection is going to be crucial in winning the main slate. Here are the best NFL DFS picks values across the board for the Week 16 NFL DFS main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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NFL DFS Picks: Week 16 DraftKings + FanDuel Value Plays

Daily Fantasy Football Pick: Quarterback

Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700 DraftKings / $7,200 FanDuel)

Say what you want about Trubisky, his price and fantasy production continue to make him one of the glaring values at quarterback every week. Trubisky has averaged 19 DraftKings points per game since returning to the starting lineup. He has done this through 244.5 passing yards and 19 rushing yards per game. Trubisky also has at least one passing touchdown in all four of his most recent starts. He has also averaged 7.5 adjusted yards per attempt in his second stint as the starter.

This week looks like another smash spot for Trubisky. His team is passing on 63.4% of its plays. That mark is the third-highest rate in the league. He gets the Jacksonville defense in Week 16. The Jaguars are allowing their opponents to average 8.1 yards per pass attempt this year. The last time a team allowed that level of efficiency to opposing quarterbacks was in 2015 when the Saints field one of the league’s worst defenses in recent memory. Vegas confirms this mismatch with a 27.25 implied team total pinned to the Bears. Trubisky is easily the best value among the cheap passers this week.


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Daily Fantasy Football Pick: Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson ($7,500 DraftKings / $7,700 FanDuel)

If Trubisky is a great value because of his team total, matchup, and pass-heavy offense, all of those factors also apply to his No. 1 receiver. Early in the season, Trubsiky was pegged as the reason Robinson wasn’t posting big games. Then Nick Foles took the field and Robinson scored more fantasy points so everyone assumed Robinson was fixed. Then things came back to Earth and the increased involvement of Anthony Miller and Darnell Mooney began to take a toll on Robinson’s output. Since Trubisky entered the fray once again, Robinson has been operating as an elite-volume receiver once again.

In the past four weeks, Robinson has a 28% target share and a 37% air yards share. Those numbers were at 24% and 30% with Foles as the starting quarterback. Now that he is firmly back in the driver’s seat for targets and air yards in Chicago, expect Robinson to take full advantage of the softest matchup in the league.

Daily Fantasy Football Pick: Running Back

Giovani Bernard ($4,800 DraftKings / $6,000 FanDuel)

Two weeks ago, Bernard got benched for a fumble against the Cowboys and his price dropped. Last week, Bernard popped off with two scores on 26 touches. However, that was on Monday so pricing had already been released and neither of the major sites got his cost correct. The most important thing that Bernard showed last week was that any risk of him continuing to give up work to other backs had been pushed to the side. He out-carried his backups 25-6 and saw the only target given to a Cincinnati running back. The Texans are somehow allowing the most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, and the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs. Luckily for us, Bernard does both of those things well.

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Daily Fantasy Football Pick: Tight End

Dallas Goedert ($2,800 DraftKings / $5,000 FanDuel)

Over the past six weeks, Goedert has been targeted at least six times in every single game. He has seen a 21% target share and a 23% air yards share over that span, both of which lead all Eagles pass-catchers. His team has a 25.75 implied total this week and the PHI/DAL game has sneaky shootout potential with a 49.5 total. That mark is the second-highest of the main slate.

The change from Carson Wentz to Jalen Hurts should also do a load of good for Goedert’s fantasy numbers. Hurts has started in two games this season. Two of the three best games from the Philadelphia offense by total yards have come in those starts. A pair of their five best games by points scored have also come in his two starts. The data on Hurts is limited but it points to him being an obvious benefit for everyone involved (except Wentz). That includes their No. 1 receiver, Goedert. 

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If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.

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