It is always important to find value for DFS lineups. What is also important is finding value with a reasonable upside, especially for tournaments. This article digs into the cheap players in the Awesemo NFL DFS projections that have the best points-per-dollar ratings. Using those projections, here are the top Week 7 NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
Best Low-Priced NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 7
FanDuel Value Quarterback: Derek Carr ($7,400)
Carr has been solid, if unspectacular, this year. He has surpassed 20 FanDuel points in four games, with the exceptions coming against top-six pass defenses (Chicago and the Chargers.) His Week 7 opponent, the Eagles, are solid at No. 12 but a definitive cut below the top-rated defenses.
The Raiders are implied for 26 points on Sunday, and most of that should come through the air. Their ground game has struggled this season, ranking 30th in yards per game. With the Eagles playing at the league’s second-fastest pace, this could turn into a back-and-forth, pass-heavy game from both sides. Carr is the only FanDuel quarterback under $8,000 projected for at least 20 points in Awesemo’s projections.
DraftKings Value Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500)
Rumors are swirling about Tagovailoa’s future with the Dolphins, but at least for Week 7 he remains the starter. After missing three games due to injury, he was impressive in his Week 6 return to action — at least from a fantasy standpoint. He completed over 70% of his passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns. Sure, the Dolphins lost to the previously winless Jaguars, but that does not cost any fantasy points.
It was also a season high in attempts for Tagovailoa, but he could approach that number again this week. The Dolphins are 2.5-point underdogs against the Falcons this week, so a negative game script is likely. Atlanta ranks one spot ahead of Jacksonville in situation-neutral pace. They also rank 30th in pass DVOA, which bodes well for the Dolphins passing attack. Tagovailoa also accomplished his solid Week 6 without No. 1 wide receiver DeVante Parker, who is likely to return this week.
Tagovailoa is second in value projection for Week 7 main slate quarterbacks.
FanDuel Value Running Back: Chase Edmonds ($6,200)
While the Cardinals are using a committee backfield, Edmonds has the more valuable role. He is getting around 40% of the Cardinals carries but 85% of the running back targets. Frustratingly, he has none of the touchdowns. This is not entirely due to variance, as James Conner is getting the bulk of the red-zone work. However, Edmonds is due for regression at some point. He has the most yards rushing of any player who has yet to find the end zone.
This week is a prime spot for that to change. The Cardinals are massive 17.5-point favorites against the Texans. This means they should be running at a far higher rate than normal. The Texans have allowed the second-most yards rushing on the season, which is not likely to change this week. There are a lot of ways to describe how bad Houston’s rushing defense is — they rank in the bottom three in defensive line yards, run DVOA and yards allowed per carry. Edmonds is the leader in value projection on FanDuel by a wide margin.
DraftKings Value Running Back: Darrel Williams ($5,800)
How much should one be willing to pay on DraftKings for a running back on a team implied for over 30 points, who got roughly 80% of his teams running back opportunities? The answer this week is only $5,800. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire sidelined, Williams’ 71% snap rate bests players like Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones (based on the past calendar year for Jones and Henry.)
Williams is in a solid spot as a solid 5.5-point favorite against the Titans. The big concern here is that the path to least resistance for Kansas City might be through the air. The Titans defense is worse against the pass than the run. Jerick McKinnon saw one more target than Williams last week, so there are workload concerns. However, Williams has enough of a pass game role — and dominated rushing work enough — that it is unlikely the game script will negatively impact him much. He trails only Chase Edmonds in value projection on DraftKings.
FanDuel Value Wide Receiver: Jakobi Meyers ($5,700)
Jakobi Meyers will likely continue to appear in this column every week until he scores his first touchdown. Awesemo’s projections clearly think he is due, though. He leads all receivers under $6,000 in value projection and leads the Patriots in targets on the year, with 52. Those targets are likely to be even more valuable against a Jets defense that is far tougher on the ground. While gamers need that elusive touchdown for Meyers to really pay off — on FanDuel in particular — his salary is very reasonable for a guy seeing eight targets per game.
DraftKings Value Wide Receiver: Hunter Renfrow ($4,800)
Renfrow has been extremely steady this season, finishing with either five or six receptions in every game but one this season. Since that outlier was last week, it is a perfect time to buy low on Renfrow.
The section on Derek Carr above laid out the reasons to be high on the Raiders passing game this week. Renfrow should be the prime beneficiary of that; he leads all Raiders wideouts in targets. With Week 7 being thin on lower-priced wide receivers, Renfrow is a solid, safe choice. He probably will not light up the fantasy scoring, but he can be relied on for a decent score. All the receivers who lead Renfrow in value projection cost at least $6,600 on DraftKings, $1,800 more than he does.
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