For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks for today. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 7 Sunday Night Football slate featuring the Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 7 Sunday Night Football
After returning for one game, T.Y. Hilton is out once again this time with an injured quadriceps muscle. Offensive lineman Braden Smith is out with foot and hand issues, while a host of defenders, including lineman Kemoko Turay and defensive backs Rock Ya-Sin and Julian Blackmon, will also be inactive. For the 49ers, rookie quarterback Trey Lance is out with a knee injury, though Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) is slated to return. Offensive lineman Trent Williams is doubtful, and defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw is also out.
Indianapolis Colts: 19.5
Quarterback
The assessment of Carson Wentz before his Week 5 game against the Ravens in Baltimore was that he is just not good. He then rolled up a career-high 402 yards passing. That was his only game with 251 yards in this season or his last four starts for the Eagles. So reframing things, Wentz is still not good, but he is a replacement-level talent who will have his moments from time to time. San Francisco is smack dab in the middle of the league with their run and pass DVOA marks, and this is not going to be an easy road matchup for the Colts and their average offense. Over their last four games the 49ers have held Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Jalen Hurts to an average of 210 yards per game, with five touchdowns passing and two rushing.
Running Back
Aaron Jones is the only running back to surpass 55 yards rushing against San Francisco and he 19 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown back in Week 3. Jonathan Taylor tallied at least 110 combined yards and a touchdown in his last three games, with five combined touchdowns. Though he is still on the field for only 50% to 60% of the snaps, at least he is getting the touches when he is in the game. Nyheim Hines continues to be the change-of-pace and passing-down back, while Marlon Mack has been getting some work as the Colts are hoping to generate some interest in him for the trade deadline. There is a fair amount of rain in the forecast, and both teams do not need much convincing to abandon the pass and focus on the run tonight.
Wide Receiver
Michael Pittman Jr. has stepped into the lead receiving role this season, and though he has only one touchdown, he flirts with double-digit targets most games. Zach Pascal has three touchdowns, though only half of the production of Pittman, and with the Colts’ conservative offense, they are hard-pressed to support more than two pass catchers from a fantasy perspective.
Tight End
Mo Alie-Cox seems to have the proverbial nose for the end zone, with three touchdowns in his last three games. In this stretch he has 12 targets, while Jack Doyle (three) and Kylen Granson (four) have received sporadic looks.
Defense/Special Teams
San Francisco has ceded only nine sacks, which is the third fewest in the league. Indianapolis is averaging two sacks per game, and they have the fourth-most takeaways this season, with an even dozen.
San Francisco 49ers: 23.5
Quarterback
Just like everyone thought, San Francisco is changing quarterbacks coming out of their bye week. However, the preseason pundits had expected the roles to be reversed. Rookie Trey Lance sprained his knee in Week 5, so Jimmy Garoppolo should return from his calf injury to lead the team. Nate Sudfeld is the backup quarterback, though he has only appeared in four games over the last five seasons, all with Philadelphia. Between the weather forecast, the conservative nature of this offense and Garoppolo’s pedestrian play, this is not likely to be a sexy game tonight.
Running Back
Rookie Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) is likely be the lead back, and JaMychal Hasty (ankle) is expected to return, providing depth. Trey Sermon has not been particularly effective when given opportunities made available by all the running back injuries, so he is likely to be the third wheel tonight. Because tonight is a single-game slate, keep an eye on Kyle Juszczyk, who had four targets in each of the last three games, along with six carries. Between the wind (15-25 mph) and the rain tonight, he should at least be on the field a lot.
Wide Receiver
Regardless of who has been under center, Deebo Samuel is the clear leading pass catcher with George Kittle on the injured reserve. Through five games Samuel is averaging 10.2 targets, 6.2 receptions and 109 yards, and he has three touchdowns receiving and one rushing. Brandon Aiyuk should finally be healthy, though the weather conditions tonight are not going to be suited for deep passes. Mohamed Sanu is generally the third wide receiver, though he has only 16 targets on the season.
Tight End
Ross Dwelley had two targets in Week 5 after drawing the start for Kittle, and Charlie Woerner had one. It is hard to get excited with the lack of passing volume in the 49ers’ game plan, and even in the red zone Samuel and the running backs are likely to get the priority looks.
Defense/Special Teams
The ever-conservative Colts have had only five turnovers this season while suffering just over two sacks per game. San Francisco has had only two takeaways this year, and they are averaging around two sacks per game.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.
Week 7 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Deebo Samuel: In what is likely to be a sloppy game, he has the ability to create after short passes and could see a carry or two.
- Jonathan Taylor: The Colts are going to want to keep this game close and feed Taylor in the hopes of stealing a win.
- Eli Mitchell: They bye week came at just the right time for Mitchell, who looks to be the lead back with Raheem Mostert out of commission. If this game were in a dome, he would fall below the quarterbacks in these rankings.
- Michael Pittman Jr.: Clear top option in the passing game, and while not as good as Samuel in traffic, he just needs one busted coverage or defensive lapse to go to the house.
- Jimmy Garoppolo: Hard to get excited for Garoppolo coming back from a bum wheel.
- Carson Wentz: Hard to get excited for Wentz under any circumstances.
- Nyheim Hines: Though his 21 targets lead the running backs, he has had only five in the last three games, while Taylor has had nine. Hines also return punts.
- JaMychal Hasty: Salary saver on DraftKings at $2,800; not as appealing on FanDuel, even at $6,000 with only half-PPR scoring.
- San Francisco D/ST: The unit has struggled this season, but they are coming off a bye week, which should help.
- Zach Pascal: Could luck into a few short passes.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Marlon Mack: Salary savings; showcase potential and sloppy conditions could get him 6 to 10 looks tonight.
- Indianapolis D/ST: Not particularly inspiring, but this is shaping up to be a low-scoring game, and with a little luck they could be a difference maker in tournaments.
- Joey Slye: After being released by Houston, Slye caught on with the 49ers to replace Robbie Gould (groin).
- Michael Badgley: Signed by the Colts to replace Rodrigo Blankenship (hip).
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Brandon Aiyuk: On the season he has 15 targets, 90 yards and a touchdown; hard to justify his salary in this weather on a conservative team.
- Ross Dwelley: Should be on the field a ton (80-90%) and is a serviceable pass catcher.
- Kyle Juszczyk: Priced like he will get 6 to 8 opportunities; half that is more likely.
- Trey Sermon: Meh.
- Mo Alie-Cox: The touchdown run is not sustainable, but he has been well ahead of his counterparts.
- Jack Doyle: Plays more snaps than Alie-Cox but does not seem to be gelling with Wentz at all.
- Mohamed Sanu: Maybe there will be some sort of trick pass in the red zone.
- Trenton Cannon: Returns kickoffs; could be a long shot to get a carry or two as a change of pace.
- Mike Strachan, Keke Coutee and Ashton Dulin: Two of the three are likely to be active with Hilton out again.
- Trent Sherfield, Charlie Woerner, Kylen Granson, Travis Benjamin, Jauan Jennings: Potential to break hearts, but so be it.
- Nate Sudfeld: Could Halloween come a week early?
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