NFL DFS Showdown Spotlight: Week 10 Thursday Night Football DraftKings & FanDuel | Ravens vs. Dolphins

For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks for today. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 10 Thursday Night Football slate featuring the Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 10 Thursday Night Football

Baltimore is rounding back into full health, with the exception of all the running backs they lost at the start of the season. Latavius Murray (ankle) is unlikely to play, though Sammy Watkins (thigh) is expected to return. That leaves tight end Nick Boyle (knee) as the one wild card, though he too is likely to be available.

Miami has one looming injury situation, and that is the fractured middle finger on the left (throwing) hand of Tua Tagovailoa. On Sunday he was replaced by Jacoby Brissett, and since this is a short week, he is not expected to play, though official news is still pending as of this article. Malcolm Brown (quad) is on the injured reserve, though he may return prior to Thanksgiving. DeVante Parker (hamstring) and Will Fuller (finger) are unlikely to return before the holiday.

Baltimore Ravens: 27.0 Points

Quarterback

By now everyone knows the drill with Lamar Jackson on single-game slates. Typically he is on upwards of 95% of all rosters between the multiplier and Flex positions. Jackson ranks 10th in the league in yards passing per game with 276.1, which is 92.3 yards more than last year and 67.5 more than his 2019 MVP season. This is on top of his 75 yards rushing per game, which are also the seventh most in the league and 8 more than last year and just 5.4 behind his MVP season.

Running Back

While Baltimore leads the league in yards rushing per game with 161.6, Jackson is accounting for a large portion of those results. This leaves around 80 to 90 yards per game for the running backs. Even with Latavius Murray sidelined the last two games, the running back snaps have been split among Devonta Freeman (40%, 58%), Le’Veon Bell (30%, 23%) and Ty’Son Williams (29%, 18%). During this two-game stretch Freeman has scored both weeks, once rushing and once receiving, and Bell ran one in last week.

Freeman is the preferred option, even with his 10-20% premium over Bell. Williams is an afterthought, with just six carries and four targets during the last two weeks. He needs an in-game injury to one of the veteran running backs or significant mop-up duty to be a difference maker on FanDuel. DraftKings is a slightly different story since he is $1,200 there, and even with four to six potential touches, the salary relief is significant.

Wide Receiver

Marquise Brown is having a nice season, leading the team in targets with 69. This is eight more than tight end Mark Andrews, double that of Sammy Watkins (32 in five games) and triple that of Devin Duvernay (21 in eight games) and Rashod Bateman (20 in three games).

Of all the Baltimore pass catchers, Brown’s salary is the highest, and Matt Savoca says that paying up for Brown could be the key to winning tonight in his NFL DFS Showdown Matchup Breakdown.

In the three games that Brown and Bateman have played together, Brown has 31 targets and Bateman has 20. The variable tonight is that this will be the first time this season that this duo has been active at the same time as Watkins. It would make sense for Watkins to play most of his snaps as the third wideout, which will likely cut Duvernay’s offensive snaps in half and render James Proche and Miles Boykin irrelevant, with one likely to be inactive.

Tight End

Andrews is having a phenomenal year, and he has six-plus targets in his last six games and 51 total in this span. Josh Oliver has a dozen targets this season, mostly as the backup for Andrews, while Eric Tomlinson saw his first target of the season in the last game despite playing 20-35% of the snaps each week, mostly as a blocker.

Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore is averaging just over two sacks and just 0.9 takeaways per game, while Miami is allowing 2.5 sacks and the second-most turnovers in the league (two per game).

Miami Dolphins: 19.5 Points

Quarterback

Jacoby Brissett is a serviceable backup, and he has 36 starts under his belt, including four this season for Miami. Though he only has a 1-3 record as a starter, only the 45-17 drubbing at the hands of the Buccaneers was beyond reach in the fourth quarter. Brissett can scramble when needed, though he has only 11 carries for 52 yards and one touchdown in his starts.

Running Back

On DraftKings Myles Gaskin is carrying a salary indicative of someone who should see 22 to 25 touches which has only happened on one occasion this season. Gaskin has just one touchdown rushing and is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. However, he is averaging almost five targets in the passing game, and he has three touchdowns through the air. Salvon Ahmed is a capable backup, and he has a very similar skillset to Gaskin. This duo also played the same roles when they were at the University of Washington, overlapping for three seasons. Gaskin will likely see 60-70% of the snaps, with Ahmed around 20-25% and Patrick Laird in the 10% range.

Gaskin was coming up in Awesemo’s NFL DFS showdown lineup optimizer as one of the top plays. Check out the DraftKings NFL cheat sheet and FanDuel NFL cheat sheet for Week 10 Thursday Night Football.

Wide Receiver

DeVante Parker and Will Fuller are out, which means Jaylen Waddle will continue to be the primary wideout with some combination of journeymen Mack Hollins, Albert Wilson and Preston Williams filling in the gaps. Hollins is likely off the radar of most gamers, but this is a single-game slate, so no stone shall remain unturned. In the last three games that Parker missed, Hollins has seen snap shares of 97%, 53% and 80%. Wilson was at 33%, 4% and 23% in those same three games, and Williams was inactive in the first and most recent game, though he was on the field for 41% of the snaps in the middle one.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki is a tight end in name only, as he spends the majority of his snaps working out of the slot. He is second on the team in targets with 62, behind only Waddle (80). Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen each play close to half the snaps as traditional tight ends, and they have 20 and 11 targets, respectively. Over the three most recent games, Shaheen has eight targets while Smythe has six.

Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore allows three sacks per game, though Miami only collects two per game. The Dolphins are collecting just over one takeaway per game while the Ravens are ceding them at a similar rate.

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Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.

Week 10 Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Lamar Jackson: In large-field tournaments moving him out of the multiplier slot can help create some differentiation.
2. Jaylen Waddle: Should be second on the team to Gaskin for total touches. Returns punts and kickoffs.
3. Marquise Brown: Looks like he is in the midst of the third-year breakout season.
4. Mike Gesicki: Take the discount over his quarterback, and keep in mind he is more of a receiver than a tight end.
5. Mark Andrews: Spends a fair amount of his snaps in non-traditional tight end spots (i.e. he is split out or in the slot nearly as often as he is in line next to a tackle).
6. Jacoby Brissett: Just because he has not run much so far does not mean he cannot tonight. For his career, he has 177 carries for 647 yards and 13 touchdowns.
7. Devonta Freeman: Not exciting but gets a discount to Gaskin on DraftKings.
8. Justin Tucker: Best kicker in the history of the game has no discount, but range and accuracy are worth the premium.
9. Myles Gaskin: Can disappear for long stretches mid-game.
10. Rashod Bateman: Salary does not consider the potential of losing targets to Watkins.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Jason Sanders: Just 9 of 13 on field goals this season, though he does see most of his work from 40-plus yards.
2. Le’Veon Bell: Third or fourth on the team for red-zone looks (Jackson, Andrews, Freeman) with marginal volume.
3. Mack Hollins: Roles gets a little tenuous if Williams is active or if he is not the starter.
4. Baltimore D/ST: Not the vaunted unit of years past.
5. Miami D/ST: Pesky, and Jackson does take sacks.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Salvon Ahmed: Quality punt on DraftKings.
2. Durham Smythe: Surprisingly active in the passing game.
3. Adam Shaheen: Closing the gap with Smythe over the last month.
4. Sammy Watkins: Meh, may have lost significance with the emergence of Bateman.
5. Ty’Son Williams: In play around lineup No. 25 on DraftKings for the salary relief, closer to lineup No. 50 on FanDuel for differentiation.
6. Albert Wilson: $400 extreme punt option on DraftKings for at most two targets; not worth the risk until lineup Nos. 75 to 100 on FanDuel. Moves up to Hollins’ line if Williams is not active on DraftKings.
7. Devin Duvernay: Move up to Watkins’ slot if he is a surprise scratch. Will still return punts and kickoffs.
8. Kirk Merritt, Nick Boyle, Patrick Laird, Josh Oliver, Isaiah Ford, Patrick Ricard, Eric Tomlinson: Half of this motley crew will be inactive, the other half all have zero- to two-touch potential.

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