Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 11 Monday Night Football slate between the Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
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NFL DFS Picks: Week 11 Monday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel
Los Angeles Rams: 21.75
This is a tough road matchup as evidenced by the 5.5-point underdog status of the Rams. Not only are they travelling all the way across the country, but they are going against the best overall and passing DVOA and the second-best rushing DVOA in the Buccaneers.
While Jared Goff is coming off back-to-back 300-yard games, he has just one touchdown to show for it. On the season, he has a disappointing 13 passing touchdowns in nine starts with half a dozen interceptions. While he has just 44 yards on the ground, he does have two short rushing touchdowns. Goff is 10th in the league with 271.9 passing yards per game, and the nine quarterbacks ahead of him have an average of eight more passing touchdowns.
Tampa Bay has allowed only Teddy Bridgewater (367) to top the 300-yard milestone, and that was back in Week 2. The Buccaneers have also allowed more than two passing touchdowns only twice this season.
It looks like rookie Cam Akers is back in the mix, which makes this a full blown running back by committee.
|Malcolm Brown||26 / 38%||27 / 45%||29 / 40%||57 / 60%||Bye||29 / 41%|
|Darrell Henderson||29 / 43%||32 / 53%||40 / 46%||18 / 19%||Bye||23 / 33%|
|Cam Akers||13 / 19%||1 / 2%||3 / 4%||20 / 21%||Bye||18 / 26%|
In this stretch Malcolm Brown has 11 targets, Darrell Henderson has nine, and Akers saw his only one last week. Despite being on the field more, Brown has been getting in the 8-10 carry range with Henderson in the 8-15 range. Akers has 10 and nine carries in the last two games, which just further clouds everything in a very difficult matchup.
Through 10 games the Buccaneers are allowing a paltry 3.3 yards per carry. No opposing running back has rushed for more than the 59 posted by Christian McCaffrey back in Week 2. In their last eight games the Bucs have allowed five total rushing touchdowns.
While this is not a great passing matchup, we can at least take solace in the consolidated trio of target options at this position. Goff has been content to take what the defense gives him, and this makes it harder for the opposition to focus too heavily on any one receiver.
It should be noted that Cooper Kupp has been dealing with a wrist injury which he picked up in Week 8 against the Dolphins. Last week against Seattle he was in on just 53% of the snaps. That along with the increased workload and discounted price make Josh Reynolds a very intriguing pivot. The steady play is Robert Woods, who also gets a little rushing work, typically in the red zone, with 17 carries for 111 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
Tyler Higbee generally plays around 20-25% more snaps than Gerald Everett. However, they are both similarly targeted by Goff. On the season it is 31/30 in favor of Higbee, who did miss Week 7. Over the last four games Higbee has 14 targets in three games with Everett checking in with 21 and playing in all four. In the game Higbee missed, Everett had five targets and Johnny Mundt saw three, though he has only four on the year.
The Rams’ 3.44 sacks per game are behind only the Steelers, who average 4.0 heading into Week 11. On the flipside, the Tampa offensive line has done a phenomenal job protecting Tom Brady, allowing just 14 sacks through 10 games. The Bucs have just a dozen turnovers, so the big plays could be hard to come by on Monday Night Football. It needs to be mentioned that Brady has suffered two pick-sixes this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 26.25
Brady is going to have his work cut out for him in this matchup. The Rams have ceded one or less fewer touchdowns in seven of nine games. Josh Allen (311) is the only quarterback to exceed 270 passing yards, and that was back in Week 3 when he also accounted for four of the eight aerial allowed by Los Angeles. The Rams have the ninth-best passing DVOA and the ninth-best overall DVOA.
Brady has multiple touchdowns in seven of nine games including three rushing touchdowns on point-blank keepers. He also has the luxury of six excellent receiving options, so it will be hard to keep the 42-year-old under wraps.
Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projected stats (part of Awesemo+) have Tom Brady throwing for 277.9 yards, which makes the under 300.5 at -134 on OddsShopper an intriguing deal. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for tonight’s Monday Night Football game between the Buccaneers and Rams.
Just when it looked like Leonard Fournette was the lead back, Ronald Jones got right back in the scrum. Of course, it was mostly on a 98-yard run and some mop-up duty when the game was well in hand. Here is a look at the play counts since Fournette returned from injury.
|Ronald Jones||31 / 43%||17 / 24%||16 / 32%||47 / 59%|
|Leonard Fournette||40 / 56%||51 / 73%||33 / 66%||29 / 36%|
If we remember Week 9, that was the Sunday Night Football game where New Orleans waxed Tampa Bay 38-3, which featured more passing and therefore Fournette. The sites have made the decision easy for us with a significant premium attached to Jones. Fournette’s price tag is half of Jones’ on DraftKings $8,800 to $4,400. FanDuel with the half-PPR is proportionally closer but still a $3,500 gap. LeSean McCoy had three snaps last week which were his first in a month. It is likely either he or Ke’Shawn Vaughn will be inactive Monday night.
This is where things get really crazy. The addition of Antonio Brown gives Tampa Bay an embarrassment of riches when it comes to pass catchers. Though Brown was on the field for only 49% of the snaps in his second game last week, he did get eight targets. Mike Evans led the way with 11 targets which gives him 24 over his last three games just in case you had written him off after Week 6 and 7 when he had a combined four targets.
Chris Godwin has had six targets in each of the last two games after sitting out one contest with a fractured index finger on his left hand. Scotty Miller had only one target and is likely to be the odd man out unless the game flow turns against the Buccaneers. Tyler Johnson and Justin Watson will be on the field for a handful of snaps but are well down the pecking order for targets.
Rob Gronkowski was on the field for 81% of the snaps last week, and though he saw just three targets, he tallied two catches for 51 yards and his fourth touchdown in the last five games. Cameron Brate also saw three targets, bringing them in three for 31 yards and a touchdown of his own. In the last five games Brate has seven targets, so he is a dart throw NFL DFS pick for the MME crowd.
Last week was the first time the Rams suffered more than two sacks as Seattle got to Goff three times. Their 13 allowed is the fifth fewest in the league though they have just 13 turnovers through nine games. Tampa Bay has the second most takeaways in the league with 17 and they are second with 32 sacks.
Monday Night Football DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.
Ben Rasa's Bet of the DayAwesemo's sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day's betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
EMac’s Week 11 Monday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings
NOTABLE INACTIVES: None
NOTABLE ACTIVES: Matt Gay is the kicker for Los Angeles tonight.
Week 11 Monday Night Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks
- Tom Brady: As much as I don’t want to do this, Brady is our best option at consolidating the Buccaneers’ passing production.
- Leonard Fournette: The savings on DraftKings is huge as half the salary cap hit of his counterpart Jones. A fine tournament play on FanDuel, but the half-PPR likely would keep him out of my first three lineups there.
- Josh Reynolds: Provides a fair price for increasing production. Not the steal he was at all against Seattle and San Francisco, though.
- Jared Goff: One of the toughest matchups he will have all year. He is due for some positive touchdown variance.
- Rob Gronkowski: The touchdown run has been truly impressive.
- Ryan Succop/Rams K: Kai Forbath has been put on the injured reserve. The Rams will sign and activate either Matt Gay signed and active tonight
or Austin MacGinnis. Both of the Rams’ potential options are in the player pool.
- Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp: The discount to Kupp makes this an easy choice on DraftKings. The full-health aspect helps rationalize the decision on FanDuel. Narrower target pool keeps Kupp just ahead of the Tampa receivers.
- Mike Evans: Best big-play ability of the Bucs receivers, but we are paying a premium.
- Chris Godwin: Best chemistry with Brady, but we are paying a premium.
- Antonio Brown: I would rather be a week early than miss out on a “remember me” performance.
Week 11 Monday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks
- Ronald Jones: This comes down to price, projected popularity and touchdown upside, which for me is better with the receivers from both teams than Jones, who is sharing the backfield.
- Gerald Everett: Solid savings on DraftKings. A much closer decision with Higbee on FanDuel.
- Malcolm Brown: I still prefer him to Henderson particularly for the savings on FanDuel, but on DraftKings I could be convinced to roll with Akers instead if I needed the savings.
- Darrell Henderson: So spendy for such a shaky workload.
- Cam Akers: Rookie could muck things up. Let ownership and full-roster construction be the ultimate guide when dabbling with the Rams backfield.
Week 11 Monday Night Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks
- Tampa Bay D/ST: Not much of a price break, and the Rams typically limit fantasy upside with their controlled passing game.
- Los Angeles D/ST: Brady does not make many mistakes, and this offensive line is stellar.
- Cameron Brate: Hard to get excited for him, but he at least has a little touchdown upside.
- Scott Miller: Really needs an in-game injury to one of the main wide receivers for him to have any opportunities.
- Van Jefferson: Still worthy of having his own line. Extreme salary saver for the mass-multi entry crowd.
- Nsimba Webster: Returning punts and kickoffs for the Rams.
- LeSean McCoy, Jaydon Mickens, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Tyler Johnson, Johnny Mundt, Justin Watson: Time to go buy an actual lottery ticket.
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