Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 14 Thursday Night Football slate between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams.
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DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: Week 14 Thursday Night Football
New England Patriots: 19.75
Quarterback
Cam Newton has 16 touchdowns in his 11 games. The wild part is that just five of those are passing scores. His 11 rushing touchdowns are two behind league-leader Dalvin Cook and one behind Derrick Henry. Four times this season he has had two rushing scores in a single game. However, the yards rushing have not been there, with just 39.5 per game. For perspective, this would work out to just shy of 650 yards in a full 16-game season, or half of what Lamar Jackson posted last year in 15 games.
The only starting quarterbacks below the 2015 NFL MVP’s total of 186.6 yards passing per game are Sam Darnold (178.5) and Andy Dalton (165.0). Newton’s nine interceptions work out to one every 31.67 pass attempts. This is worse than all but three quarterbacks who have attempted at least 250 passes this season.
Finally, we need to mention the Los Angeles passing defense, which has the fifth-best DVOA according to FootballOutsiders. Only Josh Allen has topped 300 yards against them, and that was back in Week 2. No other quarterback has tallied more than 270 yards passing. They are also third in the league in both takeaways (20) and sacks (36).
Running Back
The New England running game is unlikely to be rolling up the yards against the Rams, who are allowing 3.9 yards per carry, the fifth-lowest figure in the league. The Patriots are rushing at the league’s second-highest rate, 52.5% of their plays, behind only Baltimore. Since Week 4, Raheem Mostert (65) is the only opposing running back to top 50 yards rushing in a game.
Rex Burkhead (knee) is out for the rest of the season, but that still leaves a relatively crowded backfield when we consider that Newton sees the second-most carries, with nearly 11 per game. Fullback Jakob Johnson will play on about a third of the snaps, but he does not have a carry this season, though he has hauled in all eight of his targets for 35 yards and a touchdown.
Damien Harris has been solid as the Patriots’ leading rusher, averaging 14 carries and 71.2 yards per game on 5.1 per carry. Of course, his upside is limited with Newton as the main red-zone rushing threat and just five targets going his way in nine games.
Wanna bet?
Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projected stats (part of Awesemo+) have Damien Harris with 64.64 yards rushing, which makes the over 48.5 at -112 on OddsShopper an intriguing way to hedge some our DFS lineups. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for the Thursday Night Football action between New England and Los Angeles.
James White should see action on about a third of the plays — and maybe more — if the Rams are able to cobble together a lead. In his last seven games, he has four-plus targets only once and has not topped five carries this season. In fine Belichick fashion, White did get two rushing touchdowns in Week 12 against Arizona.
Finally, we saw Sony Michel on 22 snaps, which was the second most he has seen this season, though, to be fair, he has taken the field in only five games. Part of his increase was the 45-0 shellacking that New England pasted on the Chargers. However, he is one more option that Belichick can use to troll fantasy gamers in a primetime setting.
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The Rams’ defense has been a force to be reckoned with this season. Aaron Donald anchors the line with 11 sacks and four forced fumbles. Leonard Floyd is ranging far and wide at linebacker with seven sacks and nine tackles for loss. The secondary has been fierce, of course, with Jalen Ramsey locking down his man, but props must go to Darious Williams, who has 13 passes defended and four interceptions. Troy Hill has also been an opportunist with two fumble recoveries, two interceptions and seven passes defended.
Now, keep in mind this is 2020 Cam Newton under center and there is no Julian Edelman. New England is attempting the second-fewest passes in the league and averaging just 18.4 completions per outing.
Jakobi Meyers is the leading Patriots receiver, but in his last three games he has 15 targets, with Damiere Byrd seeing 18 and N’Keal Harry 13 in that same timeframe. Meyers has yet to find the end zone, while Byrd has one score and Harry two. These are contrarian options, as most gamers will prefer going to the Rams on the single-game slate.
Tight Ends
Over the last five games, Ryan Izzo has five targets and Jordan Thomas has one. There is just no real volume going to this position with Newton at the helm.
Defense/Special Teams
Los Angeles has allowed only three sacks in its last three games. It has ceded one or fewer in seven of its 12 games. Its 20 turnovers are fifth in the league, but that still works out to fewer than two per game.
Los Angeles Rams: 32.25
Quarterback
The Patriots defense has been all over the place this season with regards to their effectiveness. The real question is if Bill Belichick’s dominating Super Bowl LIII game plan still has Sean McVay rattled. In its last two games, New England held Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray without a score but did let Joe Flacco throw for three touchdowns in Week 9.
Jared Goff will be going against the 21st passing DVOA, and we know that McVay will be doing everything he can to put his offense in a place to succeed. The Patriots have allowed half of the opposing signal-callers they have faced to account for multiple touchdowns.
Running Back
New England has had a bottom-five rushing DVOA for most of the season, and we have seen rookie Cam Akers increasing his workload over the last five games. In his last two games against Arizona and San Francisco, he had a combined 30 carries for 156 yards and a touchdown in each game. Akers had two red-zone opportunities against the 49ers and a whopping nine against the Cardinals.
Darrell Henderson had a season-low three carries, but he did break one off, ending the day with 49 yards rushing and a score. He also had three targets, which was in line with his typical share despite playing just 18 snaps. Malcolm Brown was in on 13 snaps and saw the ball just four times.
Saving the best for last to wrap things up, Akers played on 52 snaps last week, or nearly double what his teammates saw. This could be the changing of the guard. He will be on everyone’s radar, but things are aligning in his favor. Our only concern is a shoulder injury, but Akers is expected be good to go despite the short week.
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Wide Receiver
Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are among our best fantasy options on Thursday, and they rival both quarterbacks. The only tricky part is what to make of rookie Van Jefferson playing nearly half of the snaps last week and Josh Reynolds seeing a season-low 46% rate. One key thing is Woods played on a season-low 75%, and Kupp had his second lowest at 65%. This is because the Rams used more 12-personnel, with Tyler Higbee playing 84% of the snaps and Gerald Everett his second-highest rate at 72%.
This is where we can let price and projected popularity be our friend. Jefferson is $2,600 on DraftKings, which is a significant discount to Reynolds at $5,600. On FanDuel, the $3,000 difference is not as proportionally good with Jefferson at $6,500 and Reynolds at $9,500. Perhaps we will get some coachspeak or other hints that may help the decision as well leading up to kickoff.
Tight End
Though Higbee has out-snapped Everett 599-to-455, Everett has 44 targets for 342 yards compared to Higbee’s 43 for 345. Three of Higbee’s touchdowns came against Philadelphia in Week 2, and his fourth was last week against Arizona. Everett is getting a $500 discount on FanDuel, so the decision will be relatively close there. On DraftKings, the $1,600 savings make him a very enticing option. I would not want to play both in the same lineup. New England has allowed opposing tight ends to score only once, and that was in Week 3 when Foster Moreau found pay dirt with the Raiders.
Defense/Special Teams
While New England is allowing about two sacks per game, its limited pass attempts curb the fantasy goodness. Over its last six games, it has suffered just two interceptions. The Rams defense is most definitely in play as they are third in both sacks and takeaways. The $4,400 price tag on DraftKings is quite palatable.
Thursday Night DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.
EMac’s Week 14 Thursday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings
Notable Inactives: LAR Austin MacGinnis, Raymond Calais NEP Ryan Izzo, Brian Hoyer, Jordan Thomas, J.J. Taylor.
Notable Actives: LAR Matt Gay (shoulder)
Week 14 Thursday Night Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks
- Jared Goff: On DraftKings he is $400 more than Newton while being $500 less on FanDuel.
- Robert Woods: This is my personal preference on both sites, though our top four could be in any order.
- Cam Newton: Just a hair below Woods for the higher price point, but he should be a core option on all sites.
- Cooper Kupp: Woods has always been my preferred option, though the two Rams have similar salaries and projections.
- Gerald Everett: We need the savings, and I think he will be less popular than the kickers on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
- Matt Gay/Nick Folk: While both kickers are questionable with mild ailments, they are expected to play.
- Los Angeles D/ST: Double-digit fantasy points in three of its last four, fairly priced. Newton will be good for a couple sacks with a chance of turnovers if the Rams can put up points.
- James White: Should see a big boost in production if the Pats are trailing, still a lot of risk.
- Cam Akers: It will be interesting to see if McVay sticks with the rookie under the bright lights.
- Damien Harris: Should see 15 carries, difficult matchup and risk of getting pulled if the score goes south.
Week 14 Thursday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks
- Jakobi Meyers: I am not a fan of the price considering the likely limited targets and he still has not found the end zone.
- Damiere Byrd: The discounted price takes out some of the risk.
- Tyler Higbee: We have seen his upside, it just has been quite a while.
- N’Keal Harry: Same story as his teammates — there just are not many pass attempts if Belichick can help it.
- Darrell Henderson: If Akers falters, Henderson will be ready to step in immediately.
Week 14 Thursday Night Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks
- Van Jefferson/Josh Reynolds: Keeping each other in check. If either were out, I would have the other at the top of the secondary section.
- Sony Michel: Belichick troll touchdown incoming.
- Malcolm Brown: Averaging 3.0 carries and 1.6 targets over his last three with no price break to speak of.
Ryan Izzo: Dinged up but still worthy of his own line, better on DraftKings.Dalton Keene and Devin Asiasi are the active TE with Izzo/Thomas out.- Nsimba Webster,
Raymond Calais, Xavier Jones,Johnny Mundt, Donte Moncrief, Isaiah Zuber, Gunner Olszewski: Time to go buy an actual lottery ticket.
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