Wild Card Weekend is here. It’s almost all over. But we’ve got four weeks left to soak in all the NFL daily fantasy action. Part of success in NFL DFS is knowing how likely a stack is going to be the highest-scoring one on the slate and how much ownership that stack is going to get. Then you know if it’s a good play or not. Fortunately, our own Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker has created a Top Stacks Tool to help you with just that. He releases it every Sunday morning before lock for all your DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft needs, and you can gain access to it by signing up HERE.
Don’t forget to check out On the Contrary with DFS Pro Brian Hooper, aka Bric75 joining Chris Spags and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker to give out their top plays for Wild Card Weekend.
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Top NFL DFS Stack, Value Stack: New Orleans Saints
According to Awesemo’s Top Stacks tool, the New Orleans Saints are the best value and have the highest odds of becoming the top scorers on the slate for Wild Card Weekend. With Drew Brees projected as the highest owned QB and Michael Thomas the highest owned player (60%+), consider adding in some low-owned fliers from this Saints offence to pair up with Brees in your stacks. Tre’Quan Smith is getting no love this week, at 1-3% projected ownership, yet he’s solidified his role as the WR2 in this Saints offence, out-snapping Ted Ginn Jr. by 20-50% in each of the last three weeks. Smith caught all five of his season high targets last week, finishing with 56 total yards and a TD against the Panthers, albeit in a bit of a blowout game… but the ownership.
On Yahoo, the Seattle Seahawks are coming in under-owned relative to their top-stack odds, and are also the highest valued stack on the slate.
Stack fade: Buffalo Bills
Maybe fade is a strong word here, but according to the Awesemo Top Stacks tool, we give the Bills a 10% chance at taking down top honors, compared to 14% ownership for Josh Allen. Now, with Allen’s ability to run the ball, his ownership might not be entirely indicative of where this stack’s total ownership ends up at, but it’s still a hefty ownership price to pay for a team with the second lowest implied total on the slate.
As well, DFSers view John Brown as a bargain this week, with 20% + ownership projected across a few sites. Pairing Allen with Brown and possibly Cole Beasley will be the most popular build in Bills stacks, but there just aren’t a lot of ways to pivot off it, without creating low-projected NFL DFS lineups featuring Isiah McKenzie. Dawson Knox is solid at his price point, but you’re not getting much of an ownership discount for a middling TE with minimal upside.
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Contrarian NFL DFS Picks
On these small NFL DFS slates it’s so difficult to create unique lineups with so few plays to choose from. You can either create lineups with low overall ownership that still project highly, or you can pepper in a low-owned flier or two into your chalkier lineups. Here are a few options, should you opt for the latter.
- Latavius Murray, 3%: There are two plausible scenarios where Murray hits value. First, he vultures a TD or two. Second, the Saints blowout the Vikings (17 carries last week in the 42-10 win over the Panthers).
- Boston Scott, 3%: He’s priced up and likely won’t benefit from a Miles Sanders injury this time around, but maybe the Eagles have caught lightning in a bottle with Scott and will go with the hot hand if he’s able to get it going early against the Seahawks. Certainly worth a flier or two.
- Zach Ertz, 2%: With the fear that Ertz might not play due to a lacerated kidney, DFSers aren’t popping him into their lineups, despite the lack of top options at the positions. This one is simple: Put in Ertz and if he plays, great, you may have a massive edge of the field. If he doesn’t swap in Dallas Goeddert and create unique lineups in the process by leaving cash on the table.
