Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Washington Football Team (22.5) at Dallas Cowboys (25.5)
Washington Passing Game
Though Washington came away with a victory against the Bengals in week 11 (in large part due to the devastating injury to Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow flatlining the opposing offense for most of the afternoon), but Alex Smith seemed to revert to the tepid game manager we’ve seen him be in year’s (and team’s) past. Smith dropped back just 27 times, third lowest among all starters in week 11 and finished with a mere 166 passing yards and a score. His two touchdown-leading drives were enough for Washington in week 11, but they’re not enough for daily fantasy football lineups, and it casts significant doubt on Smith heading into week 12. If Washington is completely content handing spending a large majority of their offensive volume on their backfield weapons (Washington backs have averaged 59% of the total offensive touches over the last two weeks), it’s going to be extremely difficult for any Washington receiver, even Terry McLaurin, to produce tournament-winning scores for family fantasy football. The Dallas defense has been much improved against quarterbacks over recent weeks, now ranking in the top 12 in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position, making Smith an unappetizing salary-saver option on the position. Fantasy gamers who roster Smith in lineups will be hoping Dallas jumps out to a large early lead, forcing Smith and Washington to pass much more than they’d like (similar to week 10, when Smith threw 55) times. Washington would much prefer to play slowly, however, with Smith at the helm.
Even before examining the matchup (which looks fairly positive for the Washington receivers), Washington’s slow pace puts a damper on McLaurin’s $7,000 salary, top among wideouts on the slate. Fundamentally, it’s a precariously high ranking. His salary indicates he’s the most likely player to out-produce all other receivers on the slate, but his offense doesn’t want to use him as often as other teams use their primary wideout. Despite leading the Washington receiving corps in target share and air yards share since Smith took over, McLaurin ranks outside the top 30 in targets per game and in air yards per game. That’s an indictment of the offense, not of McLaurin’s talent. McLaurin should still be fairly popular among fantasy gamers, especially because the Cowboys rank 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to primary wide receivers this season, and he absolutely has a 150-yard, two touchdown game in his range of outcomes, but the salary makes utilizing the burgeoning superstar difficult this week. The only auxiliary option in this option worth considering is tight end Logan Thomas, who still ranks ninth among tight ends in true weighted opportunity share and has seen four or more looks in every game this season, giving him some appeal as the fifth-highest-salary tight end on the Thursday slate. MME players could look to Steven Sims, Cam Sims or Isaiah Wright, all players who have had a five-target game over the last two weeks, but the floor for each of them is 0 catches for 0 yards, making them extremely thin plays. Against a Dallas offense that continues to hemorrhage fantasy points to the wide receiver position, however, they’re far from poor picks, especially in large-field tournaments.
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Washington Rushing Game
Antonio Gibson had his best game in weeks last Sunday against the Bengals, carving up the Cincinnati defense for 104 total yards on 17 touches and scoring on Washington’s opening drive, on his way to being a quick-hitting value pick in daily fantasy football lineups for week 11. In week 12, Gibson, who has seen more than 20% of Washington’s opportunities in all but two games this season, goes up against a Dallas rush defense that he torched for 128 total yards on 20 touches in week 7. Though J.D. McKissic was less of a focal point at that point in the season (McKissic saw a precipitous drop in looks last week, as well), Gibson has a chance to smash once again, as the Cowboys rank 30th in yards allowed per carry and dead last in points allowed per play this season. Gibson’s salary is slightly inflated based on the matchup (he has the fourth-highest-salary among running backs on the slate), but that’s really the only concern here. Gibson has the usage floor and the efficiency ceiling and should be considered one of the safest picks at the position this weekend. McKissic will still be involved, as he’s just a week removed from back-to-back 14-plus target outings and has some appeal of his own at $5,100, eighth highest among all running backs, but he’s much more of a floor option than a ceiling option, making him slightly less appealing in tournaments. Gibson still dominates the team’s opportunities from inside the 10-yard line, giving him significantly higher touchdown upside.
Dallas Passing Game
For the first time since Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury, the Cowboys finally got some consistent play from the quarterback position, as Andy Dalton completed 69% of his 32 pass attempts, for a relatively small 203 yards but threw three touchdown passes and completed the first game from a Cowboys passer (not named Prescott) with a positive quarterback expected points added at game’s end. More importantly, it appears that moving starting offensive lineman Zach Martin to tackle was a positive choice, at least for one week, as the Cowboys only allowed one total sack, a feat they hadn’t previously accomplished since week 2. Dalton finished with a passer air conversion ratio of 1.01, mere percentage points from Prescott’s season average of 1.09, but from a volume perspective, this Dallas offense is nowhere near the same as the pre-week 6 version of the Cowboys, as Dalton’s 201 total air yards were 42% less than Prescott’s season average. Simply put, this is still an offense that, from a production perspective, lives and dies with touchdowns. From that viewpoint, we almost certainly saw the ceiling version of the Dalton-led Dallas offense a week ago. Now, on short rest, they face a Washington defense that ranks in the top 15 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season and top 10 in both yards allowed per pass attempt and points allowed per play. They rank first in expected points subtracted per play, which puts a bit of doubt on Dalton’s projection for this week, however, Dalton remains a solid discount-quarterback option, just $200 more expensive than minimum starter price, allowing for maximum flexibility at other positions in daily fantasy football lineups.
In terms of target distribution, we didn’t see many new wrinkles from the Cowboys in week 11, as the relatively flat allocation of looks continued for a fifth straight game. The four players you’d expect (Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup) received between five and seven targets, once again. In fact, since week 7, all four players are averaging between six and eight targets per game, while no other Cowboys player has averaged 2.5. When incorporating air yards, the Dallas big four consumes 81% of the team’s entire weighted opportunity, with Cedrick Wilson (the rare wide receiver handcuff, who would get tremendous playing time should any of Cooper, Lamb or Gallup miss time) the only other notable wideout in the offensive rotation (though Noah Brown played on a similar amount of snaps, he doesn’t get enough looks to be viable in fantasy football). Cooper hasn’t been as effective as he was with Prescott, but he still holds a firm grip on the team lead in receptions, receiving yards and yards after catch. He’s still the obvious 1A in the passing game, but only Gallup has had a game with over eight targets in a game over the last four weeks, and the rookie Lamb holds the slight edge in receiving touchdowns (after a highlight-reel grab in the end zone in week 11 pushed his season touchdown total to four). It’s notable then, that despite ranking third, behind the tight end Schultz, in touchdown grabs, Cooper still leads the pack in fantasy points. With the Washington secondary playing at a borderline-elite guarding auxiliary receiving options this season (they rank top six in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to both secondary and tertiary receivers), Cooper’s seventh-highest receiver salary on the slate is absolutely justified. Gallup has a ton of upside, especially compared to salary-based expectations. At just $3,500, he’ll fit into many different daily fantasy football lineup builds, which could spike his popularity on the slate, but that shouldn’t necessarily deter fantasy gamers from betting on Gallup at all. Despite the matchup only looking so-so on paper, Gallup has a floor of five targets and a legitimate ceiling of 12 targets, which would make him a volume-based steal at his salary. Schultz has an even higher salary than Gallup (fourth among tight ends), despite receiving 12% less of the team’s air yards, making him a touchdown reliant play, like the rest of his position, except with a higher salary.
Dallas Rushing Game
For the first time since week 2, Ezekiel Elliott saw more than 20 opportunities for the Cowboys, making the most of his 23 looks, gaining 114 yards from scrimmage, and scoring his first touchdown in five weeks. From an efficiency standpoint, it was Elliott’s best game as both a rusher and receiver, though he was upstaged momentarily when backfield mate Tony Pollard ran 42 yards down the sideline for a score. Pollard was relegated to strict backup duties in week 11, earning only 8% of the team’s opportunities, compared 13%, 17%, 18% and 20% of team opportunities in the previous four weeks. The matchup doesn’t pop off the page for either player, and Elliott struggled to get anything going in week 7 (on 31% of the team’s opportunities) against this same defense, gaining just 3.6 yards per opportunity. This makes Elliott a bit of precarious selection at $6,800, the highest-salary running back on the Thanksgiving slate. With Washington ranked in the top 15 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, while the classic Elliott ceiling game for (100 rushing yards and two scores) is always in play, it’s tough to bet on him, in this spot, with other salary saving options available at the position. He’s a tournament-only option for this article’s author.
Prediction: Cowboys 24, Washington 23
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