Week 9 significantly thinned survivor pools. Over 43% of remaining competitors were eliminated by losses between the Cowboys and Bills. An additional 8% fell with Saints and Raiders losses, so over half of the field was eliminated. Be sure to check out Awesemo’s new NFL Survivor Optimizer Tool when making NFL bets and survivor picks the rest of the way. Here are some potential NFL survivor pool picks for Week 10.
What is an NFL Survivor Pool?
There are several variations of the survivor pool format, but the most basic and common one is each Week everyone in the pool must select one team to win a game straight up, not against the spread. If the team wins, that player survives the week; if that team loses, the player is eliminated. The twist is that teams can only be used once, making it increasingly difficult as the season goes on. The pool ends when there is one player left.
Week 10 NFL Schedule
|Ravens (-7.5) at Dolphins
|Falcons at Cowboys (-9)||Saints at Titans (-3)||Jaguars at Colts (-10.5)|
|Browns at Patriots (-1.5)||Bills (-13) at Jets||Lions at Steelers (-9.5)|
|Buccaneers (-9.5) at Washington||Panthers at Cardinals (-10)||Vikings at Chargers (-2.5)|
|Eagles at Broncos (-2.5)||Seahawks at Packers (-4)||Chiefs (-2.5) at Raiders|
|Rams (-4) at 49ers|
Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Recap
The official pick of this column fell in Week 9. While the final score makes it look almost reasonable, the Cowboys were down 30 points until the final five minutes of the game. If there is a lesson here, it is that post-bye teams are dangerous. The Cowboys were rolling prior to their Week 8 bye but came out flat in Denver.
Seemingly the only huge favorite to win its Week 9 contest, the Colts cruised to a 45-30 victory against the Jets. As if they needed any more help, they benefited from the Jets having to go to their third-string quarterback, with backup Mike White getting knocked out early. It was a beautiful Sunday for gamers who used the Colts. Their Thursday victory made all of the upsets on Sunday especially sweet.
The Bills’ explosive offense fell flat, scoring only 6 points against the Jaguars. Jacksonville came into this game with the league’s 32nd-ranked defense by DVOA. It was Jacksonville Josh Allen’s day, not Buffalo’s Josh Allen. The Bills were the third-most popular pick according to Yahoo’s distribution, with 14.13% of the field now eliminated.
The previously 1-7 Dolphins were without their starting quarterback in this one — but still rewarded the 8.79% of gamers who used them in survivor pools this week. We discussed them as a solid leverage play in case any of the chalkier choices lost.
Week 10 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Teams Already Used: San Francisco 49ers (W), Cleveland Browns (W), Denver Broncos (W), Cincinnati Bengals (W), Baltimore Ravens (W), Indianapolis Colts (W), Arizona Cardinals (W), Kansas City Chiefs (W), Dallas Cowboys (L, Switched to Miami after the fact)
With the column officially being eliminated in Week 9, this week the play is to pivot and move forward as if Miami was the Week 9 choice. They were the next-best option, and for continuity’s sake they are eliminated from the available teams moving forward.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are 9.5-point favorites on the road in Week 10 against Washington. This seems like a bit of a trap game, but Tampa should move through this one easily. Still, last week showed that road teams are risky, as both Buffalo and Dallas were on the road. With the Buccaneers returning home in Week 11 against the Giants — where they are currently projected by Awesemo’s NFL Survivor Optimizer Tool as 15-point favorites — they are better saved until then. With so much of the field likely gone, it is not necessary to look too far ahead, but Tampa now has the league’s best future value score in the tool.
If the Colts are available, they are 10.5-point favorites at home against the Jaguars, making this a great time to utilize them (what a stretch of schedule for the Colts). They have a below-average 42 future value score moving forward, so take advantage of them while they are available.
Dallas hosts the Falcons, who are without Calvin Ridley, as 9-point favorites. Atlanta did beat the Saints last week, but expect Dallas to come out much sharper after last week’s shocker. This is the most the Cowboys are expected to be favored for the remainder of the year.
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Like the Cowboys, the Bills have a great Week 10 matchup to bounce back from a startling loss in Week 9. They are 13-point favorites against the Jets. While this game is on the road, there will probably be more members of the Bills mafia at MetLife stadium than Jets fans. However, the Bills are tied with Tampa for the best future value moving forward. Saving them for late season (including as projected 17-point favorites in the final week of the season) makes a lot of sense too.
The Steelers take on a winless Lions team at home for Week 10. While the Steelers playing on Monday is a concern — particularly with the Lions having a Week 9 bye — they should be OK against Detroit.
Week 10 NFL Survivor Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Not only is this the most Awesemo projects Pittsburgh to be favored by the rest of the year, but it is also the only time they project to be favored. While there is minor concern about the difference in rest between these two teams, Pittsburgh should be able to overcome it, particularly at home.
For those in smaller pools with very little competition left, the Bills might be the better choice, though. The optimal strategy suggests saving them for Week 18, but many smaller pools might not have anyone left that long. Holding onto the Bills for later does not do any good if it results in a loss.
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