NFL DFS Picks: AFC Championship Game DraftKings Showdown Lineups

Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. Much like for the regular season “primetime” games, we will be providing free analysis for the single-slate nightcap playoff action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Championship Round Sunday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.

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NFL DFS Picks: Championship Round Sunday DraftKings + FanDuel

Buffalo Bills: 24.5

Quarterback

While last week’s performance was disappointing when compared to the outstanding season posted by Josh Allen, the matchup is much better Sunday. Kansas City has the 12th passing DVOA, however they have allowed multi-touchdown games to opposing signal-callers in eight of their last nine tilts. Additionally, five of those quarterbacks have topped the 300+ aerial yard milestone. Buffalo abandoned the run against Buffalo and let Allen air it out all game. The third-year field general also had seven of the sixteen rushing attempts, which bodes well for his upside this weekend.

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Running Back

Zack Moss was sidelined so Devin Singletary had the backfield mostly to himself. He shared some of the opportunities with T.J. Yeldon, but that should not be a concern on Sunday Night Football. The downside is now Singletary is appropriately priced for a lead RB1, though we can not be assured how many carries he will see if this game turns into a track meet.

Last week, Singletary saw his first target with 3:48 remaining in the first quarter. Amazingly, his first carry did not occur until there was 3:07 left in the half. If he sees a more typical game, then something in the 10-12 carries with 3-4 targets seems appropriate. However, that is not very exciting for his current price point.

The one thing we want to consider is that the Kansas City rushing DVOA was the fourth worst in the league. If there are rushing opportunities, they should come with some built-in upside. The downside is that Andy Reid & Co. generally are able to put points on the board which makes their opponents play catchup.

Wide Receiver

In Wild Card Weekend, it was John Brown who broke our hearts with no catches on four targets. Last weekend, the script was flipped and he had 11 targets for 8/62/0. Cole Beasley was the Buffalo receiver who ripped out the heart of anyone backing him and showed it to them while it was still beating. He had two targets for bupkiss. He has been a gamer playing through a knee injury, but that is casting a shadow over any semblance of fantasy certainty. Rookie Gabriel Davis is dealing with an ankle injury and has yet to practice heading into Saturday. It sounds like he will be a game-time decision, which is no bueno.

Saving the best for last, we have Stefon Diggs. In the regular season he led the league in targets, receptions and yards. In the two postseason games he has 20 targets for 14/234/2, which has him in consideration as the Captain/MVP in all formats.

Tight End

We have had the Bills on many a primetime slate. I will continue to point our that while the volume does not go to this position, Allen does look to them in the redzone. Additionally, he plays no favorites. Both Dawson Knox and Tyler Kroft had three touchdowns in the regular season. This was particularly impressive for Kroft who was active for just six games. Lee Smith had two scores on a slim four targets. All told, the position saw 65 targets for 40/444/8 — we just don’t know where the production will materialize.

Defense/Special Teams

Kansas City does a reasonably good job protecting their quarterback having allowed just two sacks in their last three games. This season they allowed multiple sacks in just five of 17 tilts. They have ceded eight interceptions and nine fumbles which is one of the better marks in the league. The Buffalo D/ST has a tough road ahead.

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Kansas City Chiefs: 27.5

Quarterback

All indications are that Patrick Mahomes will be cleared from the concussion protocol and be under center on Sunday night. Not to make light of a bruised brain, but the more pressing issue is that the wizardly Mahomes is dealing with turf toe that is limiting his mobility. Though he is not a noted rusher, he is not afraid to tuck the ball and take off when the opportunity arises. Even if this aspect is taken off the table, he should still be fine moving within the pocket.

When these teams squared off back in Week 6, Mahomes attempted just 26 passes for 225/2. Kansas City made hay via the ground game rolling up 245 yards on 46 carries. Mahomes had multiple passing touchdowns in 13 of 15 games this season. We know he is matchup proof.

Running Back

Once again, it seems that Clyde Edwards-Helaire (hip) is going to be a game-time decision. He missed the final two games of the regular season as well as last week. Keep in mind he also was held out of the Week 13 Sunday Night Football game against Denver while recovering from a flu-related illness. That means he has played only twice in the last seven weeks. While it has been reported that the youngster is expected to play, he has been limited in practice all week.

Last weekend in his stead, Andy Reid turned to veteran Darrel Williams who was solid with 13/78/0 on the ground and who brought in all of his targets for 4/16/0 through the air. Mid-season acquisition Le’Veon Bell (knee) appears to be an afterthought as he a measly two carries and two targets even without Edwards-Helaire. Heading into Saturday he still had not practiced and there is a good chance he is inactive.

We know that Andy Reid prefers his veteran options, so even if CEH is active he will likely share the opportunities with Williams. They are similarly priced on DraftKings and on FanDuel, Williams has a $3,500 discount. My preference is going to be leaning with Williams unless there is solid validation of workload going to the rookie, in the event he is available.

Wide Receiver

Sammy Watkins (calf) missed last week, but he has been taking part in practice and is expected to play on Sunday. The veteran only played in ten games this season and was disappointing with 55 targets for 37/421/2. Tyreek Hill operates both on the outside and from the slot. This season he was eight in the league with 1,250 receiving yards with a whopping 15 touchdowns. He also had 13 rushing attempts for 123 yards and a pair of scores. We know he is a game-breaker and worth every penny of his salary figure.

Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson lose some of their luster with the return of Watkins. Both are still serviceable options when we consider that they are on the receiving end of Mahomes dazzling throws. On DraftKings the choice is easy with Robinson coming in $3,000 cheaper than Hardman. Heading to FanDuel the decision is tougher with Hardman getting a $1,000 discount. Byron Pringle does have some utility on DraftKings where he is $800, however at $5,500 on FanDuel it is not worth the likelihood of him seeing only one or two targets.

Tight End

Travis Kelce capped off another amazing season with 1,416 receiving yards setting the all-time record for tight ends. This total carried him to the second highest total in the league. Additionally, he was sixth with 145 targets and fifth with 105 receptions and 11 receiving touchdowns. Excluding Week 17, the other tight ends combined for 15 targets on the year.

Defense/Special Teams

Buffalo does a good job of protecting the quarterback and they have suffered just four sacks in the postseason with no turnovers. The Kansas City D/ST is fairly priced at $2,800 though this is not an exciting play.

Championship Round Sunday Night DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.

EMac’s Championship Round Sunday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings

Championship Round Sunday Night Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
Josh Allen: It is hard to go wrong with Allen who is worthy of Captain/MVP consideration.
Stefon Diggs: He will be the focus of the KC defense as well as the apple of Allen’s eye.
Travis Kelce: Redefining the tight end position.
Tyreek Hill: There is an embarrassment of riches on both sides of this matchup.
Tyler Bass/Harrison Butker: We desperately need the savings.
Devin Singletary: The potential for fantasy rushing upside is always there against this defense.
Demarcus Robinson: Target him on DraftKings at $1,800, on FanDuel he ranks next to Hardman.
John Brown: He can make opposing teams pay if they focus too much on Diggs.
Darrel Williams: No price discount, but we know Andy Reid prefers his veterans.

Championship Round Sunday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks

Cole Beasley: Removed from the injury report.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: We have no idea what his workload will be.
Sammy Watkins/Mecole Hardman: Add Robinson into this mix on FanDuel.

Championship Round Sunday Night Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks

Gabriel Davis: The rookie is dealing with an ankle injury, but expected to suit up.
Buffalo D/ST: Nothing sexy here.
Kansas City D/ST: Nothing sexy here either.
T.J. Yeldon: Good for a handful of opportunities, but hard to trust. Priced accordingly on both sites.
Dawson Knox: Hoping for a fortuitous touchdown.
Byron Pringle: DraftKings only but he is in play at $800.
Le’Veon Bell: Oh how the mighty have fallen.
Isaiah McKenzie: Special teamer with a chance at one or two targets. Move up to Gabriel’s slot if the rookie sits.
Nick Keizer, Ricky Seals-Jones, Lee Smith, Anthony Sherman, Chad Henne: Time to go get a lottery ticket.

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Author

Eric MacPherson

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].