Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. This will be our final installment this season as we have made it all the way to Super Bowl LV between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs. Let’s get into some of the NFL DFS picks for the Super Bowl.
NFL DFS Picks: Super Bowl LV DraftKings + FanDuel
Kansas City Chiefs: 29.75
Quarterback
Reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes has already faced this Buccaneers defense this season back in Week 12. In that game Mahomes had a sublime performance with 462 passing yards and three scores. All three scores went to Tyreek Hill, including two in the first quarter from 75 and 44 yards out as Hill became the third player to compile 200+ receiving yards in a single quarter.
It was Tampa Bay corner back Carlton Davis who was tasked with marking Hill and he just did not have the speed to deal with him one-on-one. Expect defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to have several different wrinkles cooked up to help prevent a repeat performance from Hill. That should be no issue for Mahomes, who still has plenty of alternative options. Even though the Pewter Pirates have what DFS gamers refer to as a funnel defense, they ended the year with the fifth best passing DVOA per Football Outsiders.
Running Back
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (hip) has had an additional fortnight to heal up and we do not have to worry about him being a game-time decision. Heading into the AFC Championship game he had played only twice in the preceding seven weeks. In the first meeting between these two squads, CEH toted the rock 11 times for 37 yards with Mahomes getting four carries for 28 yards and Le’Veon Bell five for 22 yards.
Once again, Andy Reid turned to a veteran running back in crucial situations. This year it has been Darrel Williams who supplanted mid-season acquisition Bell and seems to have a slight edge over rookie first rounder Edwards-Helaire. By now you have likely seen half a dozen fantasy-centric articles that have broken down the likely outcome/approach for the Kansas City backfield. My guess is that this will be pretty close to an even split in neutral to positive game flow scenarios. Williams will likely get the first crack and if one of this duo “gets hot” they would seem to have the edge the rest of the way.
On the flip-side, if the youngster makes any mistakes, it would not be much of a surprise to see him banished to the bench. DraftKings makes the decision easy for me by giving Williams a $1,800 discount over Edwards-Helaire. On FanDuel, things are much closer with only a $1,000 gap, though I still give a slight nod to Williams there as well,
Wide Receiver
What more can we say about Tyreek Hill? This season he was eighth in the league with 1,250 receiving yards while operation both on the outside and from the slot. He tallied 15 receiving scores with two more on the ground. In the regular season he had 13 rushing attempts for 123 yards just showing his multi-dimensional upside. After showing out in Week 12 against this same defensive unit, expect them to be well aware of his presence on every play.
Sammy Watkins (calf) last saw action on December 27th aka Week 12. All signs indicate that he will be back in the starting lineup after being a full practice participant Friday. The only real question is how healthy is he and will there be rust after sitting out for well over a month. The former Clemson stalwart has been disappointing this season, however that is reflected in his price tag. DraftKings and FanDuel both have him as the sixth-most spendy wide receiver option.
Borrowing from previous analysis, both Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson lose some of their luster with the return of Watkins. Last week Robinson played, but he did not see a target. Currently he is in the health and safety protocol as the team barber tested positive for COVID-19 and Robinson was a close contact. If he is cleared, he should be on the field more than Hardman, but both project to see 2-4 targets. The nice thing is that those targets will be coming from Mahomes. Robinson is a fraction of Hardman’s salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Keep in mind that Hardman will be returning kicks and he could become the first player to return a punt for a touchdown in Super Bowl history. There have been ten kickoffs returned for a score.
Byron Pringle does have some discount dandy appeal on DraftKings where he is $1,800, however at $6,000 on FanDuel it is more of a stretch and he is $500 more than Robinson. Regardless, it seems that if we are backing Pringle, we need to understand he may see just 1-2 targets.
Tight End
Travis Kelce had one of the best, if not the best, season ever for a tight end. He set the all-time single season record for tight ends with 1,416 receiving yards. This figure was also the second highest yardage mark this season for any receiver. Additionally, he was sixth with 145 targets and fifth with 105 receptions and 11 receiving touchdowns. Excluding Week 17, the other tight ends combined for 15 targets during the regular season and just one through two playoff games. Kelce is a strong consideration for our Captain/MVP slot in all formats.
Defense/Special Teams
Kansas City D/ST had five sacks in the playoffs. However, we know that “Tompa” Bay does a good job of protecting their quarterback and limiting turnovers. With a $2,600 price tag and 10% projected popularity this unit is a neutral play.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 26.75
Quarterback
In the history of the Super Bowl, no team has ever played in their home stadium. Naturally Tom Brady is going to be the first quarterback to lead his team to that honor. This will be Tom Terrific’s tenth appearance in the title game. Naturally, this is by far the most among any player and he has six victories through his first nine attempts. Brady led the Patriots to eight of their 10 franchise appearances and this is the second time the Bucs have made the title game.
What more is there to say about the 43-year old signal-caller? In the Week 12 matchup he had 345 passing yards with three aerial scores and two interceptions. In each of his three playoff games he had multiple passing touchdowns and even had a rushing touchdown against the Saints. Green Bay did get to him with three interceptions, but he was only sacked five times during the postseason. Love him or hate him we have all seen him rise to the occasion countless times.
Running Back
While this is a shared backfield, Leonard Fournette does seem to have the edge over Ronald Jones II. Through the last two playoff games Fournette has 29/118/1 on the ground and 12 targets for 10/63/1 through the air. By comparison Jones has 23/78/0 rushing and only one target in the post season. Keep in mind that Jones was a late holdback in the game against Washington with a sore quad.
This decision all comes down to price and the rest of our roster construction. On DraftKings Jones is $2,200 while Fournette is $7,800. This $5,600 goes a long way to upgrading other roster slots. FanDuel is a similar story where Fournette is $12,500 and Jones is $8,000, however the savings is not as dramatic when we consider the FanDuel salary floor of $5,500 and one less roster slot. On FanDuel currently both players are projected within a 1.5-2.5% pOWN% while on DraftKings, even with the savings the full-PPR scoring has Fournette at double the Jones popularity.
Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown was able to practice for the second straight day with no setbacks to his sore knee. While he is expected to be active, it makes sense that we still consider Mike Evans and Chris Godwin the top two options. Brown’s availability and effectiveness will of course have a direct impact on Scott Miller and Tyler Johnson. If Kansas City is able to get pressure on Brady, Brown will likely be the receiver who loses out if the Bucs roll a two-tight end scheme.
Conventional wisdom has Evans as the big play/red zone option while Godwin works the intermediate routes and high leverage third down plays. Godwin is slightly more spendy on both main sites. However, their popularity is currently even. Kansas City has the 12th best passing DVOA, but we have already seen Brady pick them apart once this year.
Tight End
Cameron Brate has been solid in the playoffs, but he is currently dealing with a back injury that has limited his practice time. He is expected to play on Sunday. Rob Gronkowski is no stranger to Super Bowls, though he has been used more and more as a blocker in the back stretch of the regular season and playoffs. Brate’s price tag has now topped Gronk on DraftKings $4,800 to $3,000 which tips the scales back to Brady’s long time teammate. On FanDuel, Brate is just $500 more than the future Hall of Famer. On the blue site, the decision comes down to personal preference.
Defense/Special Teams
Kansas City allowed two sacks this postseason and in the Week 12 matchup the Bucs got to Mahomes twice. Though 15 regular season and two postseason games, Mahomes has thrown just six interceptions. Tampa Bay is appropriately priced on DraftKings for this matchup. We will need a splash play for them to be a difference maker.
Super Bowl LV DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.
EMac’s Super Bowl LV Showdown DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings
Super Bowl LV Showdown Top 10 NFL DFS Picks
- Travis Kelce: Most gamers are going to look to Mahomes as their Captain/MVP, though the math says one of his receivers is likely to out-point him, particularly on DraftKings.
- Tyreek Hill: My slight lean is to Kelce, but I will have plenty of Tyfreak Hill!
- Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
- Chris Godwin/Mike Evans: Coinflip though I do have both ahead of their quarterback.
- Harrison Butker/Ryan Succop: Woo Hoo, Kickers!
- Tom Brady: The specter of the Bucs looking to run knocks TB12 down the list.
- Leonard Fournette: We are paying full freight, but the passing game involvement give him the nod.
- Darrel Williams: My preference is the savings with the KC veteran running back over the rookie.
- Ronald Jones: DraftKings ranking has him here or even tied with Fournette for the savings, FanDuel I would have him heading up the next section.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Just not a strong enough track record from both a health and effectiveness perspective.
Super Bowl LV Showdown Secondary NFL DFS Picks
- Sammy Watkins: Mahomes has so many options, Watkins may see only 5-6 targets with eight on the high side.
- Antonio Brown: Always in the mix, but at less than 100% he is the third or even fourth option on the Tampa totem pole.
- Demarcus Robinson: Four targets feels about right, he has upside if something befalls Watkins in-game.
- Mecole Hardman: Expect at least one trick play from Andy Reid involving Hardman.
- Cameron Brate/Rob Gronkowski: Touchdown upside, but their volume will likely be lacking based on past history.
Super Bowl LV Showdown Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks
- Byron Pringle: My guess is he still sees the field 35-40% of the plays, target expectation of 1-2 keep him in this section.
- Scott Miller: If Brown somehow is inactive move Miller to his ranking.
- Tampa Bay D/ST: Slight nod for actually having “homefield” advantage.
- Kansas City D/ST: How much longer can TB12 outrace Father Time?
- Tyler Johnson: Deeeeeeeeep down the list unless Brown is inactive.
- Nick Keizer: Had the only non-Kelce playoff target to a KC tight end.
- Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Anthony Sherman, Chad Henne, Tanner Hudson, Blaine Gabbert: No stone left unturned, not much to see here.
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