Monday Night Football for Week 5 features an AFC Conference battle between the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts. The line on this game has moved between -6.5 and -7 in favor of the Ravens all week and features a game total of 46. The Colts need to win this game to avoid a 1-4 start (and essentially end their playoff hopes), while the Ravens are looking to stay in first in the AFC North and go to 4-1. Both teams are relatively healthy right now on the offensive side, so there will not be huge news to watch before lock. Who the Ravens activate at running back could be of interest, though. Latavius Murray led them in carries last week. The Ravens offensive line is slightly banged up, with Ronnie Stanley out and Alejandro Villanueva questionable.
Based mainly off the Awesemo projections, I have listed below top PrizePicks targets for the fifth Monday Night game of the year.
Week 5 Monday Night Football NFL PrizePicks
Carson Wentz Over 225.5 Yards Passing
Teams playing the Ravens this year have averaged 38.6 throws per game, the sixth most in the league. While Carson Wentz enters this game averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt (and with a 63% completion rate), he is coming off his best game of the season against Miami. The Ravens have some holes in their defense, particularly down the middle, where they have allowed the most receptions to tight ends. Wentz has a big-bodied receiver in Michael Pittman Jr. and an athletic tight end in Mo Allie-Cox, who caught five passes last week (and who has moved up the depth chart past Jack Doyle).
The Colts enter this game as 6.5-point underdogs as well, so they will almost certainly have to air the ball out a little more than last week, and Wentz has averaged around 35 pass attempts per game this year. His projection this week agrees that this over/under looks too small, as it has him going for over 240 yards passing this week. Regardless of reputation of Wentz or the Colts chances, Wentz should push for season-high totals in pass attempts here, which makes him a great over candidate.
Mark Andrews Over 50.5 Yards Receiving
Mark Andrews heads into this game having caught at least five passes in three straight games. Moreover, his targets have risen in each of his last three starts as well, and he faces a Colts defense that rates poorly in terms of yards per attempt allowed (sixth worst in the league). The Ravens passing attack is a place to attack for overs right now as well. Lamar Jackson comes in having thrown for over 230 yards in all four games this year and went for over 300 yards and 8.5 yards per attempt against an elite Denver pass defense last week. Andrews was a big part of that effort against Denver too, going for 13.4 yards per catch and 67 yards in a tough matchup, and now gets a much softer pass defense. His Awesemo projection has him leading the Ravens receivers in yards, going for over 55. His total looks too low to consider anything but an over play.
Lamar Jackson Over 61.5 Yards Rushing
The Colts have been a brutal matchup for opposing running backs this year. They have allowed just 4 yards per carry to the position and only one touchdown to running backs. Latavius Murray is likely to lead the Ravens backfield again, and he has only managed 3.4 yards per carry on the year. This speaks to the fact that the Ravens are once again likely to have to rely on the legs of Lamar Jackson to move the ball on the ground. Jackson is coming off a longer week of rest and had only seven carries in each of his last two games.
Jackson’s passing totals are worth taking a look at this week too, but his rushing projection has him going for over 65 yards this week. With Jackson, it is almost always better to attack his rushing totals anyways, as it requires less reliance on receivers like Marquise Brown, who can struggle with drops. If playing Jackson, just go traditional and play to his strengths by taking the over on the slightly lower-than-normal rushing total.
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