Welcome to the weekly PrizePicks Main slate breakdown. In this article we’re looking at the best Fantasy Scores to target for the Week 6 Sunday main slate. If you’re new to the site, PrizePicks allows you to bundle over or under selections into parlays for big payouts. So, from each game we’re offered a fantasy total or prop (single stats DFS) amount on select players and then need to make a selection as to whether that player will go over or under the total.
Using the Awesemo weekly DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing TDs) and the Awesemo Prop Tool — which projects specific total for each player — I’ll be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and hopefully provide a good guide as to how to build your PrizePicks tickets.
PrizePicks NFL Fantasy Scores DFS Picks: Week 6 Sunday Slate
QB: Joe Burrow over 19.0 fantasy points
If you’ve read what I’ve put down this week you know I like this spot for the Bengals’ passing attack. I won’t get too much into the analysis here but Joe Burrow has smashed this week’s over/under total on PrizePicks now in two straight games and hasn’t needed wild shootout type of games to do it. He’s averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt and over a 71% completion rate, which is exactly what we want to see from a quarterback who is on one of the lower-volume passing teams in the league. When we look at this matchup with Detroit, we can see less talented quarterbacks with similar explosive wide receivers have carved up the Lions, on low pass attempts. Jimmy Garoppolo went for over 300 yards in Week 1 on 25 pass attempts (and had a touchdown sniped by Trey Lance), while Kirk Cousins threw for over 275 yards last week.
Burrow has also now set season highs in pass attempts in two straight games, which is a great development. Joe Mixon is banged up and has averaged just 3.8 yards per carry the last two games, so there’s a good chance we see the Bengals let Burrow drop back a few more times now that we’re five games into the year (and five more weeks into his knee rehab). The projections on Awesemo also really like him in this spot as they have him going over 20 fantasy points for the week, so even if you don’t like what I wrote, you should probably just trust the #math. Burrow’s a great over target in Week 6, regardless.
Other Picks:
- Mac Jones over 16.0 fantasy points: Despite the Patriots ranking inside the top-10 teams in the league in terms of pass attempts per game, we haven’t seen Mac Jones throw downfield much and it’s really hampered his upside for fantasy purposes. The Cowboys are a great tonic though for opposing quarterbacks as they have allowed four 300-yard passing games against already and the most passing yards against through five weeks. Jones is projected for a breakout kind of game here on Awesemo where he’s liked to go over this total by more than 1.5 points
RB: Ezekiel Elliott under 17.0 fantasy points
Ezekiel Elliott comes into this game averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has taken over 20 touches in each of his last two games. Given how well he has produced in 2021 we should have been expecting a big total here and while other elite running backs have seen bigger totals this year, Elliott’s is still big enough here that we should be looking to fade this inflation in his over/under. We’re not worried about Elliott’s long-term usage necessarily, but it is worth noting that the Cowboys continue to give Tony Pollard 30-40% of the snaps, so any week could see a bit of a tilt back to Pollard in touches. Elliott has also been limited in practice this week with knee and chest injuries and is actually a legit questionable for this game.
The matchup here also stinks. New England has allowed just one rushing touchdown so far in 2021 and have limited opposing running backs to just 3.8 yards per carry. Even if Elliott gets his 20-plus touches here, there’s no guarantee he finds big plays or the end zone against this tough New England defensive front. Moral victories in the usage front aren’t what we’re after here and the projections on Awesemo are also telling us to expect a slow day as they have Elliott as just the 11th running back this week, and going for under 14 fantasy points. He’s a solid under target in Week 6.
Other Picks
- Antonio Gibson under 15.0 fantasy points: Antonio Gibson is another lead running back who has been given a big total this week that looks worth fading. He’s also listed as questionable on the injury front (shin fracture) and keeps losing big snaps every week to J.D. McKissic. Gibson could find a big play or two against this porous Chiefs defense, but he’s not 100% and has a great chance of seeing his workload get cut again by game-flow if the Chiefs offense gets out in front early. Take the under on this big total, too.
WR: Cooper Kupp under 21.0 fantasy points
Given how well some of the top wide receivers in the game have performed through five weeks, we have a lot of inflated looking totals to this position on PrizePicks for Week 6. None is bigger than Cooper Kupp’s, though, who tops the wide receiver department at 21 on his over/under. Kupp was bound to regress after he scored five touchdowns in the first three weeks but it’s not the lack of touchdowns in the last two games that are worrisome. His last two opponents have held Kupp to just a 52% connection rate on his last 23 targets and he’s been outplayed by Robert Woods over that span as well.
A more balanced attack by the Rams heading into the next part of the season then should shock no one at this point and we also have the worry here that the Giants may not put up much a fight. New York is without its top wide receiver and running back, while Daniel Jones is also coming off a missed week of practice due to a concussion. The Giants are the walking dead right now and it could mean L.A. sets season high marks in rush attempts, against a weak rush defense. Kupp remains a great fantasy option in traditional formats, but his projection this week has him a full 4 points under this mark. Fade the top here on a player who could still owe use a few more slow weeks after his lightning-fast start.
Other Picks
- Preston Williams over 5.0 fantasy points: If you’re looking for a little diamond in the rough play, then targeting the Dolphins banged-up receiving corps could fit your fancy. Preston Williams be slotted in the No. 3 role with DeVante Parker ruled out and saw five targets last week. Williams has a good career yards per catch metric and has been projected for over 8 fantasy points this week on Awesemo. This total looks worth taking on, especially against such a bad pass defense in Jacksonville.
TE: Ricky Seals-Jones over 7.0 fantasy points
Tight end can be a volatile wasteland for fantasy purposes, as targeting anyone not named Travis Kelce tends to give us heartburn more often than not. Ricky Seals-Jones was a bit of a breath of fresh air when he promptly stepped in and saw eight targets, five of which he turned into catches. Seals-Jones didn’t do a ton with those targets, but 41 yards and five catches were enough for him to outperform many of the bigger names at his position.
The Football Team face a buzz saw here in the Chiefs this week who should be looking to air things out a little more after losing their lead running back. With no Logan Thomas and no clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver on this team, there’s no reason to think Seals-Jones’ target share dips at all in this game where Washington and quarterback Taylor Heinicke are projected to throw the ball 35-plus times, according to the Awesemo projected DFS stats. Seals-Jones doesn’t have a crazy-high projection, but he is projected to go over this mark by at least a point and can easily break the 7 over/under just through volume alone. Take advantage of the low total here by targeting the over.
Other Picks
- Hunter Henry over 9.0 fantasy points: Hunter Henry’s over/under has seen a rise this week after a breakout game last week against the Texans. Despite that, I still like taking the over on a player here who has averaged 6.25 targets now over his last three games. I mentioned above how opponents against Dallas have thrown the ball with a ton of success and Henry has emerged as the superior down field option in New England at tight end and comes in averaging 10.8 yards per catch. I think we see more usage from him here in a game where Mac Jones is projected for over 36 pass attempts.
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