Welcome to a review of the DraftKings Week 12 NFL slate. Today, we will take a look at the largest of the three Milly Makers available on Sunday to see if we can learn any Week 12 lessons. The NFL $2.5 Million Fantasy Football Millionaire was a $10 GPP on DraftKings that paid $1,000,000 to first place and $10,000 to 10th. In total there were 294,117 entries. We’ll examine the winning lineups’ NFL DFS picks and see if there is any DraftKings lineup advice and FanDuel construction we can decipher from their lineup building processes and stacking strategies.
NFL DFS Stack Report: Week 12 DraftKings Lessons
First off, this tournament was played by 91,734 unique players, a massive GPP. Of those, 14,513 (15.8%) made money and only 27 (0.03%) profited $1,000 or more. Put another way, 77,221 (84.2%) players lost money in this DraftKings GPP and 103 (0.11%) lost over $1,000. Congratulations to user pickedtherightscrub, who played 12 lineups and cashed five of those, binking this GPP by 4.34 points. Pickedtherightscrub’s first-place lineup scored a 253.32; his next best scored a 171.68.
We can see the winning lineup employed a QB/WR/OPP stack of Baker Mayfield with Jarvis Landry and James Robinson. Two Vikings were used, which was sharp, as the Vikings have a condensed target tree, especially with Adam Thielen out. If Dalvin Cook fails but the Vikings succeed, you have to assume Justin Jefferson and Kyle Rudolph did something, especially at a total cost of $9,100. Using the low-owned stack of Mayfield and Landry gave pickedthrrightscrub’s lineup the leverage needed to play anyone else they wanted in the lineup. Derrick Henry and Tyreek Hill were great choices. Note that Alex Baker made the point Sunday morning on the free YouTube show that Landry was very cheap for a WR1. With people looking to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt even though they split the backfield, going to the Browns passing game made great sense, leverage-wise.
Salary and Team Ownership
$50,000 45.9%
$49,900 22.3%
$49,800 12%
$49,700 6.8%
This was another week of no salary surprises. The winner used all $50,000, and only three lineups in the top 50 used less than $49,700. Eighty-seven percent of lineups entered used $49,700 or more this week. That is a few percentage points more than normal.
Team ownership on the leaderboard was really all over the place, from 62% to 155%. That is a good reminder that total team ownership isn’t everything; it is all relative to your lineup, the slate and the contest.
Four hundred thirty-nine lineups were reserved but not played. The most popular lineup was played 244 times and did not cash, scoring a 119.18:
It’s an optimal lineup from some projection system, I guess. Honestly, just looking at it makes me physically uncomfortable. There is no leverage, no correlation, all chalk.
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Week 12 NFL DFS Stack Types | DraftKings + FanDuel Lineup Picks
I have listed the 10 most common stack types below:
QB/WR 18.9%
None 15.7%
QB/WR/OPP 14%
QB/WR/TE/OPP 6.8%
QB/WR/TE 6.2%
QB/2WR/OPP 5.9%
QB/TE 4.2%
QB/2WR 3.1%
QB/TE/OPP 3%
QB/RB/WR 2.4%
The 150-Maxers
We had 278 150-maxers in Sunday’s GPP, making up 14.2% of the field. A much better showing than Thursday, still only 29 of 278 made money, taking second, sixth, eighth and 10th place. Only 10 made more than $1,135. Bbuckets was the most profitable 150-maxer, cashing 45 lineups and profiting $99,395 with the second-place lineup shown below. He missed out on winning the Milly by less than a handful of points, so it is a shame Mecole Hardman could only muster 5.3 points. This is a very nice lineup, a QB/2WR/OPP stack with secondary correlation of a minimum-priced Gabriel Davis and Austin Ekeler. Latavius Murray at running back and the 49ers at D/ST are surprises in a very low-owned lineup.
Boom of the day technically goes to the Atlanta Falcons D/ST, which put up 28 fantasy points for $2,200 (12.7x) at 0.4% ownership. I do have to mention Hill put up 7.8x (good for 60.9 fantasy points for $7,800) at 21.6% ownership. Bust of the day goes to Cook, who put up 1.2x ( 11.2 fantasy points for $9,500) at 41.6% owned.
The best possible lineup with basic correlation of QB/WR/OPP would have won the Milly Maker by 33.6 points:
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